25 days
until the Jan. debate
319 days
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Each week, The Times is bringing you the latest political data and analysis to track how the 15 Democratic presidential candidates are doing and who is breaking out of the pack in the historic race for the 2020 nomination.

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Current State of the Race

Qualified for the December debate*
National polling averagePolling Average
Individual contributions†Individual contrib.†
Weekly news coverageWeekly media
27% $37.6m #1
19% $61.5m #4
16% $49.8m #2
9% $51.5m #3
Michael R. BloombergBloomberg
5% #5
4% $13.9m #9
3% $15.1m #8
2% $15.5m #6
1% $6.5m #11
1% $7.6m #10
< 1% $2.0m #7
Michael BennetBennet
< 1% $4.9m #12
John DelaneyDelaney
< 1% $2.4m #15
Marianne WilliamsonWilliamson
< 1% $6.1m #14
Deval PatrickPatrick
< 1% #13
Dropped out Dec. 3
Steve BullockBullock
Dropped out Dec. 2
Joe SestakSestak
Dropped out Dec. 1
Wayne MessamMessam
Dropped out Nov. 20
Dropped out Nov. 1
Tim RyanRyan
Dropped out Oct. 24
Bill de Blasiode Blasio
Dropped out Sept. 20
Kirsten GillibrandGillibrand
Dropped out Aug. 28
Seth MoultonMoulton
Dropped out Aug. 23
Jay InsleeInslee
Dropped out Aug. 21
John HickenlooperHickenlooper
Dropped out Aug. 15
Eric SwalwellSwalwell
Dropped out July 8
+ View all candidates
* Meets polling and donor thresholds set by the Democratic National Committee.
† Campaign finance data through Sept. 30.
Arrows show recent changes in value or rank.

Here’s the latest.

Dec. 20, 2019

The Democratic presidential primary is entering the holiday lull in a fluid but familiar state: Joseph R. Biden Jr. is still the leading candidate. His national poll numbers are still flat. Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren are still his nearest competitors, with Pete Buttigieg as a threat in the early states.

But the race is far from stagnant. There have been two important developments in the national polls this month. Mr. Sanders has overtaken Ms. Warren as the second-place candidate in the race, rising by a modest but meaningful margin over the last few weeks. And Michael R. Bloomberg has quickly reached the mid-single digits after entering the race before Thanksgiving, with an abrupt rise that may have interrupted Mr. Buttigieg’s momentum.

The sixth Democratic debate on Dec. 19 could soon register in the polls. Amy Klobuchar, who has been making a persistent effort to break through in Iowa, delivered her most forceful performance yet, challenging Mr. Buttigieg over his electoral track record and qualifications for the presidency. And clashes between both Mr. Buttigieg and Ms. Warren, and also Mr. Biden and Mr. Sanders, had the potential to ripple.

But polling tends to go quiet over the holidays, so it may take some time for us to get a fully updated picture of the race.

With the start of the new year, we are likely to get a pile of new data to inform our analysis — not just from polls, but also from the candidates’ fund-raising reports once the fourth quarter closes on Dec. 31.

Those numbers will reveal whether the strongest fund-raisers in the third quarter of the year — Mr. Sanders, Ms. Warren and Mr. Buttigieg — have extended their dominance, and whether Mr. Biden has revived what was, at the time, a flagging financial operation. Candidates like Ms. Klobuchar, Andrew Yang and Cory Booker will also show whether they have assembled enough money to sustain their candidacies.

Of course, the financial contours of the race have changed since Mr. Bloomberg’s announcement. He has poured tens of millions of dollars from his personal fortune into television and digital advertising, threatening to overpower the other candidates across the map of Super Tuesday states where he is focusing his efforts. But it remains to be seen whether Mr. Bloomberg can build on his early gains or whether his surprise entry and heavy spending have given him something of a temporary bump.

— Alexander Burns

Data through Dec. 19

Who Is Leading the Polls?

National polls are a flawed tool for predicting elections. That’s even truer in a primary that will unfold in stages, with one or several states voting at a time. But the broad national picture is still important, offering a sense of which candidates are gaining support overall.

Candidate polling average

Individual polls shown on hover

Individual polls shown on tap

Latest National Polls

Pollster Date Biden Sanders Warren Buttigieg Bloomberg
NBC News/Wall Street JournalNBC News/
Wall Street Journal
Dec. 14-17 28 21 18 9 4
Dec. 12-15 26 20 16 8 5
QuinnipiacQuinnipiac Dec. 11-15 30 16 17 9 7
USA Today/SuffolkUSA Today/
Dec. 10-14 23 14 13 8 6
NPRNPR Dec. 9-11 24 22 17 13 4
The New York Times polling averages use pollsters approved by the D.N.C. for debate inclusion requirements. Polls conducted more recently and polls with a larger sample size are given greater weight in computing the averages. Data is for registered voters or likely voters, depending on the poll. See the full list of D.N.C.-approved pollsters here.

Remember, political fortunes can shift rapidly in a national campaign.

On Dec. 20 in previous election cycles ...

Primary Polling leader Eventual nominee?
2016 Democrats Hillary Clinton
2016 Republicans Donald J. Trump
2012 Republicans Newt Gingrich
2008 Democrats Hillary Clinton
2008 Republicans Rudy Giuliani
Source: RealClearPolitics

We are keeping an eye on state-level polling, too, especially in the early voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.

Latest Polls in Early Voting States

S.C. Nov. 13-17 Iowa Nov. 8-13 N.H. Nov. 6-13 Nev. Nov. 6-13
Joseph R. Biden Jr.Biden
33 15 22 33
Bernie SandersSanders
11 15 20 23
Elizabeth WarrenWarren
13 16 31 21
Pete ButtigiegButtigieg
6 25 16 9
Michael R. BloombergBloomberg
Amy KlobucharKlobuchar
1 6 3 2
Andrew YangYang
4 3 1 1
Cory BookerBooker
2 3 1 2
Tulsi GabbardGabbard
1 3 0 0
Julián CastroCastro
0 0 0 1
Tom SteyerSteyer
5 3 1 2
Michael BennetBennet
0 1 0 0
John DelaneyDelaney
0 0 0 0
Marianne WilliamsonWilliamson
1 0 0 0
Deval PatrickPatrick
+ View all candidates
Sources: Quinnipiac (South Carolina poll), Des Moines Register/CNN (Iowa poll), CBS News/YouGov (New Hampshire, Nevada polls)
Data through Sept. 30

Who Is Leading the Money Race?

Presidential campaigns are expensive, and candidates’ ability to compete often depends on their prowess at collecting large sums of money. Candidates used to focus on courting a few thousand wealthy individuals; many now spend more time raising money in small increments from millions of people online.

These statistics show which candidates are inspiring financial enthusiasm, either from a cluster of deep-pocketed donors or from a larger army of supporters. We only get an occasional glimpse at these numbers, however, since candidates file fund-raising reports on a quarterly basis. See full fundraising numbers here »

Bernie SandersSanders
Elizabeth WarrenWarren
Pete ButtigiegButtigieg
Joseph R. Biden Jr.Biden
Andrew YangYang
Cory BookerBooker
Amy KlobucharKlobuchar
Julián CastroCastro
Marianne WilliamsonWilliamson
Tulsi GabbardGabbard
Michael BennetBennet
Tom SteyerSteyer
John DelaneyDelaney
Michael R. BloombergBloomberg
Deval PatrickPatrick
+ View all candidates
Source: Federal Election Commission ·Candidates in the chart without donation numbers joined the race after the financial disclosure reporting deadline. Current numbers are as of Sept. 30. The next filing deadline is Jan. 31.
Data through Dec. 18

Who Is Getting News Coverage?

A candidate’s ability to make news and draw the attention of voters — and cameras — is a major asset in any campaign. This statistic tracks which candidates are breaking through on cable television, which helps drive perceptions of the race among highly engaged voters and the wider media.

Being talked about isn’t always a good thing: It can also mean a candidate made a major mistake or confronted damaging information from his or her past.

Total Mentions in 2019

Fox News
Joseph R. Biden Jr.Biden
Elizabeth WarrenWarren
Bernie SandersSanders
Pete ButtigiegButtigieg
Cory BookerBooker
Amy KlobucharKlobuchar
Michael R. BloombergBloomberg
Julián CastroCastro
Tom SteyerSteyer
Tulsi GabbardGabbard
Andrew YangYang
John DelaneyDelaney
Marianne WilliamsonWilliamson
Michael BennetBennet
Deval PatrickPatrick
+ View all candidates
Source: Internet Archive's Television News Archive via the GDELT Project. ·Mentions are the number of 15-second clips in which a candidate’s full name is mentioned on any of the three cable news networks. A more detailed methodology can be found here.

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Key Dates

Jan. 14 Seventh primary debate
Feb. 3 Iowa caucuses
July 13-16 Democratic National Convention
Nov. 3 Election Day