11 days
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305 days
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Each week, The Times is bringing you the latest political data and analysis to track how the 14 Democratic presidential candidates are doing and who is breaking out of the pack in the historic race for the 2020 nomination.

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Current State of the Race

Qualified for the January debate*
National polling averagePolling Average
Individual contributions†Individual contrib.†
Weekly news coverageWeekly media
27% $37.6m #1
19% $61.5m #2
16% $49.8m #3
9% $51.5m #4
5% #7
4% $13.9m #5
3% $15.1m #9
2% $15.5m #8
1% $6.5m #10
< 1% $2.0m #6
< 1% $4.9m #12
< 1% $2.4m #13
< 1% $6.1m #14
< 1% #11
Dropped out Jan. 2, 2020
Dropped out Dec. 3, 2019
Steve BullockBullock
Dropped out Dec. 2
Joe SestakSestak
Dropped out Dec. 1
Wayne MessamMessam
Dropped out Nov. 20
Dropped out Nov. 1
Tim RyanRyan
Dropped out Oct. 24
Bill de Blasiode Blasio
Dropped out Sept. 20
Kirsten GillibrandGillibrand
Dropped out Aug. 28
Seth MoultonMoulton
Dropped out Aug. 23
Jay InsleeInslee
Dropped out Aug. 21
John HickenlooperHickenlooper
Dropped out Aug. 15
Eric SwalwellSwalwell
Dropped out July 8
+ View all candidates
* Meets polling and donor thresholds set by the Democratic National Committee.
† Campaign finance data through Sept. 30.
Arrows show recent changes in value or rank.

Here’s the latest.

Jan. 3, 2020

The new year began with a stunning announcement from the Bernie Sanders campaign: Mr. Sanders raised more than $34.5 million in the final quarter of 2019, a mammoth total that is likely to make him the best-funded candidate in the race (besides Michael R. Bloomberg) by a sizable margin. He may now be able to count on outspending his opponents in all of the early voting states, and his powerful small-dollar machinery has the potential to sustain his candidacy indefinitely regardless of how he finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire.

Mr. Sanders has not been the only candidate to reveal a muscular fund-raising quarter: Pete Buttigieg collected $24.7 million, Joseph R. Biden Jr. took in $22.7 million, followed by Elizabeth Warren at $21.2 million. Those figures are important displays of strength, and Mr. Biden’s haul represents a significant and much-needed improvement over his fund-raising in the previous quarter. And two underdog candidates raised sizable sums as well, with Andrew Yang collecting $16.5 million and Amy Klobuchar bringing in $11.4 million — totals that ensure they will be able to spend heavily in the final weeks before Iowa and New Hampshire.

Based on what we know about fund-raising, the Democrats could be headed for a long race, with four or five candidates capable of mustering the tens of millions of dollars required to compete for the nomination over the long haul. Mr. Bloomberg’s self-funded advertising spree continues to astound: his weekly spending on television commercials routinely exceeds what Mr. Buttigieg raised in the final three months of last year.

To settle the race early, it might take a dominant performance by one candidate in the first four nominating states — Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina — followed by a convincing show of force on Super Tuesday in early March. Right now, we do not have a particularly good sense of how likely that scenario is. There has been no new polling since before the holidays, and no high-quality Iowa polling since November. If the last Democratic debate in December changed the state of the Iowa race — giving a jolt to Ms. Klobuchar, for instance — there has been no public data to prove it.

But we also have no reason to anticipate a major change in the national shape of the race since mid-December, when Mr. Biden held a steady, single-digit lead over Mr. Sanders and Ms. Warren, with Mr. Buttigieg and Mr. Bloomberg well behind in fourth and fifth place.

Until we have fresh polling, it might be most useful to think about the race in terms of which candidates looked strong last month and which candidates clearly have the resources to keep getting stronger. And Mr. Sanders is clearly at or near the top of pack in both categories.

— Alexander Burns

Data through Jan. 2

Who Is Leading the Polls?

National polls are a flawed tool for predicting elections. That’s even truer in a primary that will unfold in stages, with one or several states voting at a time. But the broad national picture is still important, offering a sense of which candidates are gaining support overall.

Candidate polling average

Individual polls shown on hover

Individual polls shown on tap

Latest National Polls

Pollster Date Biden Sanders Warren Buttigieg Bloomberg
NBC News/Wall Street JournalNBC News/
Wall Street Journal
Dec. 14-17 28 21 18 9 4
CNN/SSRSCNN/
SSRS
Dec. 12-15 26 20 16 8 5
QuinnipiacQuinnipiac Dec. 11-15 30 16 17 9 7
USA Today/SuffolkUSA Today/
Suffolk
Dec. 10-14 23 14 13 8 6
NPRNPR Dec. 9-11 24 22 17 13 4
The New York Times polling averages use pollsters approved by the D.N.C. for debate inclusion requirements. Polls conducted more recently and polls with a larger sample size are given greater weight in computing the averages. Data is for registered voters or likely voters, depending on the poll. See the full list of D.N.C.-approved pollsters here.

Remember, political fortunes can shift rapidly in a national campaign.

On Jan. 3 in previous election cycles ...

Primary Polling leader Eventual nominee?
2016 Democrats Hillary Clinton
2016 Republicans Donald J. Trump
2012 Republicans Newt Gingrich
2008 Democrats Hillary Clinton
2008 Republicans Rudy Giuliani
Source: RealClearPolitics

We are keeping an eye on state-level polling, too, especially in the early voting states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina.

Latest Polls in Early Voting States

S.C. Nov. 13-17 Iowa Nov. 8-13 N.H. Nov. 6-13 Nev. Nov. 6-13
Joseph R. Biden Jr.Biden
33 15 22 33
Bernie SandersSanders
11 15 20 23
Elizabeth WarrenWarren
13 16 31 21
Pete ButtigiegButtigieg
6 25 16 9
Michael R. BloombergBloomberg
2
Amy KlobucharKlobuchar
1 6 3 2
Andrew YangYang
4 3 1 1
Cory BookerBooker
2 3 1 2
Tulsi GabbardGabbard
1 3 0 0
Tom SteyerSteyer
5 3 1 2
Michael BennetBennet
0 1 0 0
John DelaneyDelaney
0 0 0 0
Marianne WilliamsonWilliamson
1 0 0 0
Deval PatrickPatrick
0
+ View all candidates
Sources: Quinnipiac (South Carolina poll), Des Moines Register/CNN (Iowa poll), CBS News/YouGov (New Hampshire, Nevada polls)
Data through Sept. 30

Who Is Leading the Money Race?

Presidential campaigns are expensive, and candidates’ ability to compete often depends on their prowess at collecting large sums of money. Candidates used to focus on courting a few thousand wealthy individuals; many now spend more time raising money in small increments from millions of people online.

These statistics show which candidates are inspiring financial enthusiasm, either from a cluster of deep-pocketed donors or from a larger army of supporters. We only get an occasional glimpse at these numbers, however, since candidates file fund-raising reports on a quarterly basis. Candidates must file numbers for the fourth quarter of 2019 by Jan. 31. See full fund-raising numbers from the third quarter here »

Contributions,
July-Sept.
Contributions,
July-Sept.
Contributions,
April-June
Contributions,
April-June
Bernie SandersSanders
$25.2m
$18.0m
Elizabeth WarrenWarren
$24.6m
$19.2m
Pete ButtigiegButtigieg
$19.1m
$24.9m
Joseph R. Biden Jr.Biden
$15.7m
$22.0m
Andrew YangYang
$9.9m
$2.8m
Cory BookerBooker
$6.0m
$4.5m
Amy KlobucharKlobuchar
$4.8m
$3.9m
Marianne WilliamsonWilliamson
$3.1m
$1.5m
Tulsi GabbardGabbard
$3.0m
$1.6m
Michael BennetBennet
$2.1m
$2.8m
Tom SteyerSteyer
$2.0m
John DelaneyDelaney
$0.5m
$0.3m
Michael R. BloombergBloomberg
Deval PatrickPatrick
+ View all candidates
Source: Federal Election Commission ·Candidates in the chart without donation numbers joined the race after the financial disclosure reporting deadline. Current numbers are as of Sept. 30. The next filing deadline is Jan. 31.
Data through Jan. 1

Who Is Getting News Coverage?

A candidate’s ability to make news and draw the attention of voters — and cameras — is a major asset in any campaign. This statistic tracks which candidates are breaking through on cable television, which helps drive perceptions of the race among highly engaged voters and the wider media.

Being talked about isn’t always a good thing: It can also mean a candidate made a major mistake or confronted damaging information from his or her past.

Total Mentions in 2019

CNN
Fox News
MSNBC
Joseph R. Biden Jr.Biden
70,280
Elizabeth WarrenWarren
27,090
Bernie SandersSanders
25,536
Pete ButtigiegButtigieg
10,230
Cory BookerBooker
7,740
Amy KlobucharKlobuchar
4,134
Michael R. BloombergBloomberg
2,911
Tom SteyerSteyer
2,447
Tulsi GabbardGabbard
2,164
Andrew YangYang
1,836
John DelaneyDelaney
866
Marianne WilliamsonWilliamson
619
Michael BennetBennet
608
Deval PatrickPatrick
558
+ View all candidates
Source: Internet Archive's Television News Archive via the GDELT Project. ·Mentions are the number of 15-second clips in which a candidate’s full name is mentioned on any of the three cable news networks. A more detailed methodology can be found here.

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Key Dates

2020
Jan. 14 Seventh primary debate
Feb. 3 Iowa caucuses
July 13-16 Democratic National Convention
Nov. 3 Election Day