Comments

Which Democrats Are Leading the 2020 Presidential Race?Skip to Comments
The comments section is closed. To submit a letter to the editor for publication, write to letters@nytimes.com.

Which Democrats Are Leading the 2020 Presidential Race?

1 day
until the next debate
271 days
until Election Day

Each week, The Times is bringing you the latest political data and analysis to track how the 11 Democratic presidential candidates are doing and who is breaking out of the pack in the historic race for the 2020 nomination.

Jump to: Overview Polls Campaign Money News Coverage

Current State of the Race

Qualified for the Feb. 7 debate*
National polling averageNat. Polling
New Hampshire polling averageN.H. Polling
Individual contributions†Individual contrib.†
Weekly news coverageWeekly media
27% 18% $60.8m #1
24% 23% $95.9m #2
14% 14% $71.1m #3
8% < 1% #6
7% 17% $76.2m #4
5% 8% $25.3m #5
4% 4% $31.6m #7
2% 3% $2.9m #9
< 1% 4% $10.0m #8
< 1% < 1% $1.9m #11
< 1% < 1% $6.1m #10
Dropped out Jan. 31, 2020
Dropped out Jan. 13
Dropped out Jan. 10
Dropped out Jan. 2
Dropped out Dec. 3, 2019
Steve BullockBullock
Dropped out Dec. 2
Joe SestakSestak
Dropped out Dec. 1
Wayne MessamMessam
Dropped out Nov. 20
Dropped out Nov. 1
Tim RyanRyan
Dropped out Oct. 24
Bill de Blasiode Blasio
Dropped out Sept. 20
Kirsten GillibrandGillibrand
Dropped out Aug. 28
Seth MoultonMoulton
Dropped out Aug. 23
Jay InsleeInslee
Dropped out Aug. 21
John HickenlooperHickenlooper
Dropped out Aug. 15
Eric SwalwellSwalwell
Dropped out July 8
+ View all candidates
* Meets polling and donor thresholds set by the Democratic National Committee.
† Campaign finance data through Dec. 31.
Arrows show recent changes in value or rank.

Here’s the latest.

Feb. 7, 2020

The Iowa caucuses did not bring much clarity to the Democratic race. But they set in motion a tough new series of tests for the top presidential candidates that may come to a head next week in New Hampshire.

The two top finishers in Iowa, Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg, have already been on the rise in New Hampshire, according to our polling average. Mr. Sanders is the clear leader in the state, though not by an overwhelming margin, while Mr. Buttigieg recently caught up with Joseph R. Biden Jr. to effectively tie him for second place. The question now is whether Mr. Buttigieg can keep rising, buoyed by his finish in Iowa, and upset Mr. Sanders in a Northeastern state long seen as his stronghold.

Should that happen, it could throw the Democratic race into further turmoil at the national level, giving Mr. Buttigieg a new aura of strength and momentum and upending Mr. Sanders’s hoped-for path through the early states. A victory in New Hampshire could also give Mr. Buttigieg a decisive upper hand over the other candidates from the Democratic Party’s moderate wing, including Mr. Biden and Amy Klobuchar.

But without winning New Hampshire, Mr. Buttigieg’s path forward is highly uncertain, especially as the race heads into more diverse and urban states. He fell behind Michael R. Bloomberg in our national polling average last month, and unless he manages a major breakthrough soon, he may lack the financial means to compete aggressively in the biggest March primary states.

And if Mr. Sanders carries New Hampshire by a convincing margin, it could help rally the left behind his candidacy at a moment when he is already close to overtaking Mr. Biden in our national polling average. So far, Mr. Sanders is the only candidate raising enough money to compete with Mr. Bloomberg on TV ads in Super Tuesday states, and his campaign announced on Thursday that he had raised $25 million in January alone. No other candidate has released a monthly fund-raising number.

For Mr. Biden, Ms. Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren, the fight for New Hampshire could have mortal consequences. Ms. Klobuchar devised her entire campaign strategy around Iowa and New Hampshire; she is unlikely to have a path forward in the race without a sudden jolt of momentum. And while Mr. Biden and Ms. Warren have important fundamental strengths that could sustain them in a pinch — such as Mr. Biden’s support from black voters and Ms. Warren’s support from liberal women — they are both likely to face serious financial limitations without a compelling performance next week.

— Alexander Burns

Data through Feb. 6

Who Is Leading the Polls?

The New Hampshire primary is Tuesday, marking the second contest of the 2020 presidential election. Here’s how the candidates have polled in the state.

New Hampshire Polling Average

Candidate polling average

Individual polls shown on hover

Individual polls shown on tap

Latest New Hampshire Polls

Pollster Date Sanders Biden Buttigieg Warren Klobuchar
MonmouthMonmouth Feb. 3-5 24 17 20 13 9
NBC News/Marist PollNBC News/
Marist Poll
Jan. 20-23 22 15 17 13 10
CNN/University of New HampshireCNN/
University of New Hampshire
Jan. 15-23 25 16 15 12 6
MonmouthMonmouth Jan. 3-7 18 19 20 15 6
CBS News/YouGovCBS News/
YouGov
Dec. 27 - Jan. 3 27 25 13 18 7
The New York Times polling averages use pollsters approved by the D.N.C. for debate inclusion requirements. Polls conducted more recently and polls with a larger sample size are given greater weight in computing the averages. Data is for registered voters or likely voters, depending on the poll. See the full list of D.N.C.-approved pollsters here.

National polls are a flawed tool for predicting elections. That’s even truer in a primary that will unfold in stages, with one or several states voting at a time. But the broad national picture is still important, offering a sense of which candidates are gaining support overall.

National Polling Average

Candidate polling average

Individual polls shown on hover

Individual polls shown on tap

Latest National Polls

Pollster Date Biden Sanders Warren Bloomberg Buttigieg
NBC News/Wall Street JournalNBC News/
Wall Street Journal
Jan. 26-29 26 27 15 9 7
QuinnipiacQuinnipiac Jan. 22-27 26 21 15 8 6
ABC News/Washington PostABC News/
Washington Post
Jan. 20-23 32 23 12 8 5
Fox NewsFox News Jan. 19-22 26 23 14 10 7
MonmouthMonmouth Jan. 16-20 30 23 14 9 6

Remember, political fortunes can shift rapidly in a national campaign.

On Feb. 7 in previous election cycles ...

Primary Polling leader Eventual nominee?
2016 Democrats Hillary Clinton
2016 Republicans Donald J. Trump
2012 Republicans Mitt Romney
2008 Democrats Hillary Clinton
2008 Republicans John McCain
Source: RealClearPolitics

We are keeping an eye on other states, too. Next up after New Hampshire are Nevada and South Carolina.

Latest Polls in Other Early Voting States

Nev. Jan. 8-11 S.C. Jan. 5-8
Joseph R. Biden Jr.Biden
19 36
Bernie SandersSanders
18 14
Elizabeth WarrenWarren
11 10
Michael R. BloombergBloomberg
2
Pete ButtigiegButtigieg
8 4
Amy KlobucharKlobuchar
4 1
Andrew YangYang
4 2
Tom SteyerSteyer
8 15
Tulsi GabbardGabbard
1 1
Deval PatrickPatrick
0 0
Michael BennetBennet
0 0
Sources: USA Today/Suffolk (Nevada poll), Fox News (South Carolina poll)
Data through Dec. 31

Who Is Leading the Money Race?

Presidential campaigns are expensive, and candidates’ ability to compete often depends on their prowess at collecting large sums of money. Candidates used to focus on courting a few thousand wealthy individuals; many now spend more time raising money in small increments from millions of people online.

These statistics show which candidates are inspiring financial enthusiasm, either from a cluster of deep-pocketed donors or from a larger army of supporters. Candidates will begin filing every month beginning Feb. 20. See full fund-raising numbers from the final quarter of 2019 here »

Contributions,
Oct.-Dec.
Contributions,
Oct.-Dec.
Contributions,
July-Sept.
Contributions,
July-Sept.
Bernie SandersSanders
$34.4m
$25.2m
Pete ButtigiegButtigieg
$24.7m
$19.1m
Joseph R. Biden Jr.Biden
$23.2m
$15.7m
Elizabeth WarrenWarren
$21.3m
$24.6m
Andrew YangYang
$16.5m
$9.9m
Amy KlobucharKlobuchar
$11.4m
$4.8m
Tulsi GabbardGabbard
$3.5m
$3.0m
Deval PatrickPatrick
$1.9m
Michael BennetBennet
$1.2m
$2.1m
Tom SteyerSteyer
$0.9m
$2.0m
Michael R. BloombergBloomberg
Mr. Bloomberg, who joined the race after the third quarter filing deadline, is running a self-funded campaign and is not accepting contributions from donors. Other candidates in the chart without donation numbers joined the race after the financial disclosure reporting deadline. Current numbers are as of the Jan. 31 filing deadline. The next filing deadline is Feb. 20.·Source: Federal Election Commission
Data through Feb. 5

Who Is Getting News Coverage?

A candidate’s ability to make news and draw the attention of voters — and cameras — is a major asset in any campaign. This statistic tracks which candidates are breaking through on cable television, which helps drive perceptions of the race among highly engaged voters and the wider media.

Being talked about isn’t always a good thing: It can also mean a candidate made a major mistake or confronted damaging information from his or her past.

Total Mentions in 2019

CNN
Fox News
MSNBC
Joseph R. Biden Jr.Biden
77,802
Bernie SandersSanders
31,985
Elizabeth WarrenWarren
31,022
Pete ButtigiegButtigieg
12,462
Amy KlobucharKlobuchar
5,310
Michael R. BloombergBloomberg
3,757
Tom SteyerSteyer
3,116
Tulsi GabbardGabbard
2,383
Andrew YangYang
2,348
Michael BennetBennet
718
Deval PatrickPatrick
616
Mentions are the number of 15-second clips in which a candidate’s full name is mentioned on any of the three cable news networks. A more detailed methodology can be found here.·Source: Internet Archive's Television News Archive via the GDELT Project.

Follow Our Coverage

Key Dates

2020
Feb. 7 Eighth primary debate
Feb. 11 New Hampshire primaries
Feb. 20 Nevada Democratic caucuses
Feb. 29 South Carolina Democratic primary
March 3 Super Tuesday
July 13-16 Democratic National Convention
Nov. 3 Election Day