Isidore interacts with Cuba
Fri Sep 20, 8:51 PM ET, weather.com
Hurricane Isidore is currently over western Cuba just northwest of Cabo Frances and is drifting or temporarily stationary and causing huge rainfall over Cuba. Flooding, mudslides and coastal surge are life threatening and will continue to be so overnight. We expect Isidore to continue on a general WNW or NW track overnight moving into the southern Gulf of Mexico. Once away from land the NHC forecast calls for rapid development to strong category 3 or marginal category 4 over the next 72 hours as it turns slightly toward the west and slows. A complicating upper low just west of Isidore may prevent such rapid development unless it moves farther away from the hurricane. Currently it appears to be nearly stationary. Motion will continue to be slow for Isidore and in 72 hours we think it will not be very far from the NW coast of the Yucatan moving very slowly toward the W or WNW. At this time the slow motion does not allow us to project where Isidore might go beyond about 300 miles from its current location! Howeve,r it is unlikely it will go away anytime soon. All models indicate the circulation will enlarge as it high pressure butts up against it in the SW Gulf of Mexico and if this happens waves generated by this much larger wind field will become very significant and will begin to impact the U.S. coastline as early as 48 to 60 hours from now. A new "subtropical depression" #12 has formed in the central Atlantic beneath and because of an upper level TUTT low. Motion is expected to be slow toward the NE and it could strengthen to subtropical storm "Kyle" over the next 12 to 24 horus, but remain only a marine hazard. Three tropical low pressure areas, two in the cloud cluster in the central tropical Atlantic, and one off the African coast will be monitored. The one embedded in the east side of the central Atlantic convection is most likely to develop over the next few days. A low about 700 miles east of Jacksonville is broad and not expected to become tropical but will cause waves along the Georgia and NE Florida coasts to increase to 3-5 feet over the next several days. The eastern Pacific is currently quiet.

Isidore batters western Cuba
Fri Sep 20, 8:11 PM ET, weather.com
Hurricane Isidore, on the western tip of Cuba, has a central pressure of 965 mb or 28.50 inches. Isidore's intensity has leveled off for the time being, as the Cuban landmass slightly interferes with its circulation. Western sections of Cuba continue to face very heavy rain with well over 20 inches possible, strong 100+ mph winds at the western tip, an 8 to 12 foot storm surge at and to the east of the eye, and large battering waves. There has been extensive damage on the Isle of Youth. The tropical storm warnings are no longer in effect for the Cayman Islands (which received over 15 inches). A hurricane watch plus a tropical storm warning are now in effect from Progresso to Tulum on the Yucatan Peninsula, including the Island of Cozumel. Isidore should track into the Gulf overnight and then will move very slowly westward through Monday. Water temperatures throughout the Gulf are quite warm at 84 to 88 degrees which could lead to an even stronger hurricane in the coming days. After Monday, the path is quite uncertain. The hurricane could get picked up and sent north by an oncoming upper trough, or get left behind to meander about in the Gulf toward Mexico. Everyone from Mexico to Florida should monitor the situation carefully over the next week. The Atlantic is becoming very active. A subtropical depression has formed over 800 miles east-southeast of Bermuda. It has the potential to develop into a tropical or subtropical storm in the next 24 hours. Another low and area of convection between the Bahamas and Bermuda will head toward the Outer Banks and could develop into a subtropical-type storm. Out in the central Atlantic,nearly 1600 miles east of the Windward Islands, there is a persistent area of convection. There are two weak lows associated with this area of showers and thunderstorms. Development is possible in the next 24 to 36 hours. There is one last low off the African coast that shows no immediate signs of development. In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Depression Iselle is now drifting northwestward away from Baja California. It looks as though the main area of showers and storms is fizzling out over the open Pacific leaving high clouds over the peninsula. Iselle should gradually dissipate over the next two days and the last advisory has been issued on this system. Thunderstorms continue to develop with the low in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This area has not become better organized. The Western Pacific is quite calm with showers and thunderstorms scattered in a monsoon trough. There is a more concentrated area of thunderstorms to the west of Guam, but no tropical development is expected.

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