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Consumer Price Index Summary

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 Patrick C. Jackman:    (202) 691-7000      USDL-02-647
 CPI QUICKLINE:         (202) 691-6994      TRANSMISSION OF
 FOR CURRENT AND HISTORICAL                 MATERIAL IN THIS
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 INTERNET ADDRESS:                          Tuesday, November 19, 2002
      http://www.bls.gov/cpi/
  
                    CONSUMER PRICE INDEX:  OCTOBER 2002
 
      The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased
 0.2 percent in October, before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor
 Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today.  The October
 level of 181.3 (1982-84=100) was 2.0 percent higher than its level in
 October 2001.
      
      The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers
 (CPI-W) also rose 0.2 percent in October, prior to seasonal adjustment.
 The October level of 177.3 was 1.9 percent higher than the index in
 October 2001.
      
 CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)
      
      On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U rose 0.3 percent in
 October, following an increase of 0.2 percent in September.  The index for
 food rose 0.1 percent in October.  The index for food at home declined 0.1
 percent, reflecting decreases in the indexes for fruits and vegetables and
 for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs.  Energy costs advanced for the fourth
 consecutive month--up 1.9 percent in October--and accounted for about half
 of the overall October advance.  Within energy, the index for petroleum-
 based energy rose 3.3 percent and the index for energy services increased
 0.4 percent.  Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U rose 0.2 percent after
 increasing 0.1 percent in September.  Larger increases in the indexes for
 shelter, for medical care, and for recreation more than offset a sharp
 drop in cigarette prices.

 Table A.  Percent changes in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)
                                   Seasonally adjusted                Un-
                                                          Compound  adjusted
     Expenditure        Changes from preceding month    annual rate  12-mos.
      Category                      2002                3-mos. ended  ended
                    Apr.   May June July Aug. Sep. Oct.  Oct. '02   Oct. '02
 All Items            .5    .0   .1   .1   .3   .2   .3    3.1       2.0
  Food and beverages  .1   -.2   .1   .2  -.1   .2   .1     .9       1.0
  Housing             .3    .3   .1   .1   .3   .1   .3    2.9       2.7
  Apparel            -.6   -.6  -.9 -1.0  1.1   .1   .0    4.7      -2.1
  Transportation     1.7   -.4   .1   .3   .4   .3   .6    5.1       1.7
  Medical care        .5    .5   .2   .7   .2   .3   .6    4.7       4.8
  Recreation          .3   -.1  -.3   .1   .1   .0   .3    1.5       1.0
  Education and                                                         
    communication    -.2    .6   .3   .7   .7  -.2   .0    2.2       2.1
  Other goods and                                                     
    services         1.5   -.5  1.0   .0   .5   .4  -.5    1.2       3.4
  Special Indexes                                                       
    Energy           4.5   -.7   .0   .4   .6   .7  1.9   13.4       3.0
    Food              .1   -.2   .0   .2  -.1   .2   .1     .9        .9
    All Items less                                                       
      food and energy .3    .2   .1   .2   .3   .1   .2    2.3       2.2


 See page 3 and table 7 for the release of the Chained Consumer Price Index
 for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U), a new supplemental index of consumer
 price change.
      
      During the first 10 months of 2002, the CPI-U rose at a 2.7 percent
 seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR).  This compares with an increase of
 1.6 percent for all of 2001.  The index for energy, which declined 13.0
 percent in 2001, increased at a 14.2 percent SAAR in the first 10 months
 of 2002.  Petroleum-based energy costs increased at a 31.8 percent annual
 rate and charges for energy services rose at a 0.3 percent annual rate.
 The food index has increased at a 1.2 percent SAAR thus far this year,
 following a 2.8 percent rise for all of 2001.  Excluding food and energy,
 the CPI-U advanced at a 2.1 percent SAAR in the first 10 months, following
 a 2.7 percent rise in all of 2001.
      
      The food and beverages index increased 0.1 percent in October.  The
 index for food at home declined 0.1 percent in October, following a 0.3
 percent increase in September.  Decreases in the indexes for fruits and
 vegetables and for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs--down 0.9 and 0.4
 percent, respectively--more than offset increases in the other major food
 at home groups. Within the fruits and vegetables group, the index for
 fresh vegetables declined 1.8 percent, the index for fresh fruits fell 0.2
 percent, and the index for processed fruits and vegetables decreased 0.4
 percent.   Each of the main groups within the index for meats, poultry,
 fish, and eggs declined in October.  The index for meats decreased 0.2
 percent, reflecting a drop in prices for lamb and mutton; the indexes for
 pork and for beef were unchanged and rose 0.1 percent, respectively.  The
 indexes for cereal and bakery products and for other food at home rose 0.4
 and 0.3 percent, respectively.  The other two major food at home groups--
 dairy products and nonalcoholic beverages--each increased 0.1 percent.
 The small advance in the index for dairy products was its first increase
 in five months, while the index for nonalcoholic beverages had registered
 a 2.2 percent increase in September.  The other two components of the food
 and beverages index, food away from home and alcoholic beverages,
 increased 0.2 and 0.4 percent, respectively.
      
      The index for housing rose 0.3 percent in October, following a 0.1
 percent rise in September.  Shelter costs, which increased 0.1 percent in
 September, advanced 0.2 percent in October.  Within shelter, the indexes
 for rent and owners' equivalent rent each increased 0.3 percent, while the
 index for lodging away from home was unchanged.  (Prior to seasonal
 adjustment, the index for lodging away from home declined 0.5 percent.)
 The index for fuels and utilities rose 0.4 percent in October, the same as
 in September.  The index for fuel oil increased 1.9 percent in October,
 and prices for fuel oil have risen 8.6 percent in the first 10 months of
 2002.  In October, the index for natural gas rose 2.9 percent, while the
 index for electricity declined 0.5 percent.  (Prior to seasonal
 adjustment, fuel oil prices rose 4.3 percent and charges for natural gas
 rose 3.0 percent, while charges for electricity fell 4.7 percent.)  The
 index for household furnishings and operations rose 0.3 percent in
 October.
      
      The transportation index rose 0.6 percent in October.  The index for
 gasoline increased for the fifth consecutive month--up 3.8 percent in
 October.  Gasoline prices have risen 29.9 percent thus far this year, but
 remain 15.1 percent below their peak level in May 2001.  The index for new
 vehicles increased 0.4 percent in October, following a 0.5 percent rise in
 September. During the last 12 months, however, new vehicle prices have
 declined 1.1 percent.  (As of October, about 35 percent of the new vehicle
 sample was represented by 2003 models.  The 2003 models will continue to
 be phased in, with appropriate adjustments for quality change, over the
 next several months as they replace old models at dealerships. For a
 report on quality changes for the 2003 vehicles represented in the
 Producer Price Index sample, see news release USDL-02-634, dated November
 15, 2002.)  The index for used cars and trucks declined 1.6 percent in
 October to a level 4.5 percent lower than in October 2001.  Airline fares
 declined for the second consecutive month--down 2.4 percent in October--
 and are 5.1 percent lower than a year ago.
      
      The index for apparel was unchanged in October, following a 0.1
 percent increase in September.  (Prior to seasonal adjustment, apparel
 prices rose 1.8 percent, reflecting price increases associated with the
 continued introduction of fall-winter wear.)
      
      The medical care index rose 0.6 percent in October to a level 4.8
 percent above its level a year ago.  The index for medical care
 commodities--prescription drugs, nonprescription drugs, and medical
 supplies--increased 0.3 percent.  The index for medical care services rose
 0.7 percent in October.  Charges for professional services rose 0.6
 percent and those for hospital and related services increased 0.9 percent.
      
      The index for recreation, which was unchanged in September, rose 0.3
 percent in October.  Increases in the indexes for admissions to movies,
 theaters, concerts, and sporting events and for cable television--up 1.4
 and 1.0 percent, respectively--more than offset declines in the indexes
 for pets and pet products, for photography, and for toys.
      
      The index for education and communication, which declined 0.2 percent
 in September, was unchanged in October.  The education index rose 0.3
 percent, reflecting a 0.5 percent increase in the index for college
 tuition and fees.  The index for communication costs declined 0.3 percent,
 reflecting decreases in the indexes for telephone services and for
 personal computers and peripheral equipment--down 0.2 and 1.9 percent,
 respectively.
      
      The index for other goods and services fell 0.5 percent in October,
 largely as a result of a 3.1 percent decline in the index for tobacco and
 smoking products.  Prices for cigarettes decreased 3.3 percent, reflecting
 increased discounting of some major brands.
      
 CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W)
 
      On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and
 Clerical Workers increased 0.2 percent in October.

 Table B.  Percent changes in CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical
           Workers  (CPI-W)
                               Seasonally adjusted                Un-
                                                          Compound  adjusted
     Expenditure        Changes from preceding month    annual rate  12-mos.
      Category                      2002                3-mos. ended  ended
                    Apr.   May June July Aug. Sep. Oct.  Oct. '02   Oct. '02
 All Items            .6   -.1   .1   .2   .3   .2   .2    2.8       1.9
  Food and beverages  .0   -.2   .1   .1  -.1   .2   .1     .9        .9
  Housing             .2    .3   .1   .2   .2   .2   .3    2.8       2.6
  Apparel            -.2   -.8  -.9 -1.0  1.1   .1  -.2    4.0      -2.2
  Transportation     1.9   -.6   .2   .4   .5   .3   .5    4.8       1.7
  Medical care        .4    .5   .1   .8   .2   .3   .7    4.9       4.9
  Recreation          .3   -.2  -.3   .1   .0   .0   .3    1.2        .8
  Education and                                                         
    communication    -.4    .7   .3   .7   .7  -.2   .0    2.2       1.8
  Other goods and                                                     
    services         2.2   -.9  1.5   .0   .8   .6  -.9    1.9       4.3
  Special Indexes                                                       
    Energy           5.0  -1.3   .2   .4   .7   .7  1.9   14.2       3.3
    Food             -.1   -.2   .1   .2  -.1   .2   .1     .7        .8
    All Items less                                                       
      food and energy .3    .1   .1   .2   .3   .2   .1    2.2       2.0


 Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U)
 
      The C-CPI-U rose 0.2 percent in October on a not seasonally adjusted
 basis.  The October level of 106.2  (December 1999=100) was 1.7 percent
 higher than the index in October 2001.  Table 7 contains the most recent
 indexes for all items and the component series that are published.   Data
 will be published monthly in the CPI Detailed Report and are available on
 the CPI home page:  http://www.bls.gov/cpi/. Please note that the indexes
 for the post-2000 period are subject to revision.
      
     Consumer Price Index data for November are scheduled for release on
 Tuesday, December 17, 2002, at 8:30 A.M. (EST).

 ___________________________________________________________________________      
      
 
                     NOTE ON A NEW, SUPPLEMENTAL INDEX
                          OF CONSUMER PRICE CHANGE
                                     
       The Bureau of Labor Statistics began publishing a consumer price
 index (CPI) called the Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban
 Consumers, effective with release of July data on August 16, 2002.
 Designated the C-CPI-U, the index supplements the existing indexes already
 produced by the BLS: the CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and the CPI
 for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).
 
     The C-CPI-U employs a Tornqvist formula and utilizes expenditure data
 in adjacent time periods in order to reflect the effect of any
 substitution that consumers make across item categories in response to
 changes in relative prices.  The new measure, said to be a "superlative"
 index, is designed to be a closer approximation to a "cost-of-living"
 index than the CPI-U and CPI-W.  The use of expenditure data for both a
 base period and the current period in order to average price change across
 item categories distinguishes the C-CPI-U from the other CPI measures,
 which use only a single expenditure base period to compute the price
 change over time.  In 1999, the BLS introduced a geometric mean estimator
 for averaging prices within most of the index's item categories in order
 to approximate the effect of consumers' responses to changes in relative
 prices within these item categories.  The geometric mean estimator is used
 in the C-CPI-U in the same item categories in which it is now used in the
 CPI-U and CPI-W.  (See Monthly Labor Review, October 1998, pp. 3-7.)

      Expenditure data required for the calculation of the C-CPI-U are
 available only with a time lag.  Thus, the C-CPI-U is being issued first
 in preliminary form using the latest available expenditure data at this
 time and will be subject to two subsequent revisions.  Accordingly, with
 release of the July data, "final" values of the C-CPI-U have been issued
 for the 12 months of 2000, "interim" values have been issued for the 12
 months of 2001, and "initial" values have been issued for January-July 2of
 2002.  In February 2003, with release of the January 2003 index, revised
 interim indexes for the 12 months of 2002 will be published, and the index
 values for 2001 will be revised and will become final.  Then, in February
 2004, when the monthly expenditure data from calendar year 2002 become
 available, C-CPI-U indexes for the 12 months of 2002 will be issued in
 final form and values for the 12 months of 2003 will be revised and issued
 as interim. The C-CPI-U index revisions are expected to be small, but in
 principle each monthly index could be revised from its previously
 published level.
 
 ___________________________________________________________________________     
 
      
 Facilities for Sensory Impaired

      Information from this release will be made available to sensory
 impaired individuals upon request.  Voice phone:  202-691-5200, Federal
 Relay Services:  1-800-877-8339.  For a recorded message of Summary CPI
 data, call (202) 691-5200.
 
 ___________________________________________________________________________
 

 Brief Explanation of the CPI
 
     The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change in
 prices over time of goods and services purchased by households.  The
 Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes CPIs for two population groups:  (1)
 the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which covers
 households of wage earners and clerical workers that comprise
 approximately 32 percent of the total population and (2) the CPI for All
 Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and the Chained CPI for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-
 U), which cover approximately 87 percent of the total population and
 include in addition to wage earners and clerical worker households,
 groups such as professional, managerial, and technical workers, the self-
 employed, short-term workers, the unemployed, and retirees and others not
 in the labor force.
 
      The CPIs are based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, and fuels,
 transportation fares, charges for doctors' and dentists' services, drugs,
 and other goods and services that people buy for day-to-day living.
 Prices are collected in 87 urban areas across the country from about
 50,000 housing units and approximately 23,000 retail establishments-
 department stores, supermarkets, hospitals, filling stations, and other
 types of stores and service establishments.  All taxes directly associated
 with the purchase and use of items are included in the index.  Prices of
 fuels and a few other items are obtained every month in all 87 locations.
 Prices of most other commodities and services are collected every month in
 the three largest geographic areas and every other month in other areas.
 Prices of most goods and services are obtained by personal visits or
 telephone calls of the Bureau's trained representatives.
 
      In calculating the index, price changes for the various items in each
 location are averaged together with weights, which represent their
 importance in the spending of the appropriate population group.  Local
 data are then combined to obtain a U.S. city average.  For the CPI-U and
 CPI-W separate indexes are also published by size of city, by region of
 the country, for cross-classifications of regions and population-size
 classes, and for 27 local areas.  Area indexes do not measure differences
 in the level of prices among cities, they only measure the average change
 in prices for each area since the base period.  For the C-CPI-U data are
 issued only at the national level.  It is important to note that the CPI-U
 and CPI-W are considered final when released, but the C-CPI-U is issued in
 preliminary form and subject to two annual revisions.
 
      The index measures price change from a designed reference date.  For
 the CPI-U and the CPI-W the reference base is 1982-84 equals 100.0. The
 reference base for the C-CPI-U is December 1999 equals 100.
 An increase of 16.5 percent from the reference base, for example, is shown
 as 116.5.  This change can also be expressed in dollars as follows:  the
 price of a base period market basket of goods and services in the CPI has
 risen from $10 in 1982-84 to $11.65.
 
      For further details visit the CPI home page on the Internet at
 http://www.bls.gov/cpi/ or contact our CPI Information and Analysis
 Section on (202) 691-7000.
  
 ___________________________________________________________________________ 
 
  
       Calculating Index Changes
       
            Movements of the indexes from one month to another are
       usually expressed as percent changes rather than changes in index 
       points, because index point changes are affected by the level of 
       the index in relation to its base period while percent changes are 
       not.  The example below illustrates the computation of index point 
       and percent changes.
       
            Percent changes for 3-month and 6-month periods are expressed 
       as annual rates and are computed according to the standard formula 
       for compound growth rates.  These data indicate what the percent 
       change would be if the current rate were maintained for a 12-month 
       period.
       
         
                    Index Point Change
       
       CPI   					115.7
       Less previous index    			111.2
       Equals index point change  		4.5
       
       
                    Percent Change
       
       Index point difference			4.5
       Divided by the previous index		111.2
       Equals					0.040
       Results multiplied by one hundred	0.040 x 100
       Equals percent change			4.0


 ___________________________________________________________________________


 Regions Defined
 
 The states in the four regions shown in Tables 3 and 6 are listed below.
 
 The Northeast--Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York,
 New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Vermont.

 The Midwest--Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota,
 Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin.

 The South--Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky,
 Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South
 Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of
 Columbia.

 The West--Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana,
 Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming.

 ___________________________________________________________________________


 A Note on Seasonally Adjusted and Unadjusted Data
 
      Because price data are used for different purposes by different groups,
 the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes seasonally adjusted as well as
 unadjusted changes each month.
 
      For analyzing general price trends in the economy, seasonally adjusted
 changes are usually preferred since they eliminate the effect of changes
 that normally occur at the same time and in about the same magnitude every
 year--such as price movements resulting from changing climatic conditions,
 production cycles, model changeovers, holidays, and sales.
 
      The unadjusted data are of primary interest to consumers concerned about
 the prices they actually pay.  Unadjusted data also are used extensively
 for escalation purposes.  Many collective bargaining contract agreements
 and pension plans, for example, tie compensation changes to the Consumer
 Price Index unadjusted for seasonal variation.
 
      Seasonal factors used in computing the seasonally adjusted indexes are
 derived by the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal Adjustment Method.  The updated
 seasonal data at the end of 1977 replaced data from 1967 through 1977.
 Subsequent annual updates have replaced 5 years of seasonal data, e.g.,
 data from 1997 through 2001 were replaced at the end of 2001.  In January
 2002, dependently seasonally adjusted series were revised for January 1987-
 December 2001 as a result of a change in the aggregation weights for
 dependently adjusted series. For further information, please see
 "Aggregation of Dependently Adjusted Seasonally Adjusted Series," in the
 October 2001 issue of the CPI Detailed Report.
 
      The seasonal movement of all items and 54 other aggregations is derived by
 combining the seasonal movement of 73 selected components.  Each year the
 seasonal status of every series is reevaluated based upon certain
 statistical criteria.  If any of the 73 components change their seasonal
 adjustment status from seasonally adjusted to not seasonally adjusted, not
 seasonally adjusted data will be used for the last 5 years, but the
 seasonally adjusted indexes will be used before that period.  Note: 39 of
 the 73 components are seasonally adjusted for 2002.
 
      Seasonally adjusted data, including the All items index levels, are
 subject to revision for up to five years after their original release.
 For this reason, BLS advises against the use of these data in escalation
 agreements.
 
      Effective with the calculation of the seasonal factors for 1990, the
 Bureau of Labor Statistics has used an enhanced seasonal adjustment
 procedure called Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment for some CPI
 series.  Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment allows for better
 estimates of seasonally adjusted data.  Extreme values and/or sharp
 movements which might distort the seasonal pattern are estimated and
 removed from the data prior to calculation of seasonal factors.  Beginning
 with the calculation of seasonal factors for 1996, X-12-ARIMA software was
 used for Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment.
 
      For the fuel oil, natural gas, motor fuels, and educational books and
 supplies indexes, this procedure was used to offset the effects that
 extreme price volatility would otherwise have had on the estimates of
 seasonally adjusted data for those series.   For the Nonalcoholic
 beverages index, the procedure was used to offset the effects of a large
 increase in coffee prices due to adverse weather.  The procedure was used
 to account for unusual butter fat supply reductions and decreases in milk
 supply affecting the Fats and oils series.  For the Water and sewerage
 maintenance index, the procedure was used to account for a data collection
 anomaly.  It was used to offset an increase in summer demand in the
 Midwest and South for Electricity.  For New vehicles, New cars, and New
 trucks, the procedure was used to offset the effects of a model changeover
 combined with financing incentives.
 
      A description of Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment, as well
 as a list of unusual events modeled and seasonal factors for these items
 may be obtained by writing the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Division of
 Consumer Prices and Price Indexes, Washington, DC 20212 or by calling
 Daniel Chow on (202) 691-6968 or sending e-mail to Chow_Dan@BLS.GOV.  If
 you have general questions about the CPI, please call our information
 staff at (202) 691-7000.


Table of Contents

Last Modified Date: November 19, 2002

 

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