Consumer Price Index Summary
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CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: OCTOBER 2002
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased
0.2 percent in October, before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor
Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The October
level of 181.3 (1982-84=100) was 2.0 percent higher than its level in
October 2001.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers
(CPI-W) also rose 0.2 percent in October, prior to seasonal adjustment.
The October level of 177.3 was 1.9 percent higher than the index in
October 2001.
CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U rose 0.3 percent in
October, following an increase of 0.2 percent in September. The index for
food rose 0.1 percent in October. The index for food at home declined 0.1
percent, reflecting decreases in the indexes for fruits and vegetables and
for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs. Energy costs advanced for the fourth
consecutive month--up 1.9 percent in October--and accounted for about half
of the overall October advance. Within energy, the index for petroleum-
based energy rose 3.3 percent and the index for energy services increased
0.4 percent. Excluding food and energy, the CPI-U rose 0.2 percent after
increasing 0.1 percent in September. Larger increases in the indexes for
shelter, for medical care, and for recreation more than offset a sharp
drop in cigarette prices.
Table A. Percent changes in CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)
Seasonally adjusted Un-
Compound adjusted
Expenditure Changes from preceding month annual rate 12-mos.
Category 2002 3-mos. ended ended
Apr. May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Oct. '02 Oct. '02
All Items .5 .0 .1 .1 .3 .2 .3 3.1 2.0
Food and beverages .1 -.2 .1 .2 -.1 .2 .1 .9 1.0
Housing .3 .3 .1 .1 .3 .1 .3 2.9 2.7
Apparel -.6 -.6 -.9 -1.0 1.1 .1 .0 4.7 -2.1
Transportation 1.7 -.4 .1 .3 .4 .3 .6 5.1 1.7
Medical care .5 .5 .2 .7 .2 .3 .6 4.7 4.8
Recreation .3 -.1 -.3 .1 .1 .0 .3 1.5 1.0
Education and
communication -.2 .6 .3 .7 .7 -.2 .0 2.2 2.1
Other goods and
services 1.5 -.5 1.0 .0 .5 .4 -.5 1.2 3.4
Special Indexes
Energy 4.5 -.7 .0 .4 .6 .7 1.9 13.4 3.0
Food .1 -.2 .0 .2 -.1 .2 .1 .9 .9
All Items less
food and energy .3 .2 .1 .2 .3 .1 .2 2.3 2.2
See page 3 and table 7 for the release of the Chained Consumer Price Index
for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U), a new supplemental index of consumer
price change.
During the first 10 months of 2002, the CPI-U rose at a 2.7 percent
seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR). This compares with an increase of
1.6 percent for all of 2001. The index for energy, which declined 13.0
percent in 2001, increased at a 14.2 percent SAAR in the first 10 months
of 2002. Petroleum-based energy costs increased at a 31.8 percent annual
rate and charges for energy services rose at a 0.3 percent annual rate.
The food index has increased at a 1.2 percent SAAR thus far this year,
following a 2.8 percent rise for all of 2001. Excluding food and energy,
the CPI-U advanced at a 2.1 percent SAAR in the first 10 months, following
a 2.7 percent rise in all of 2001.
The food and beverages index increased 0.1 percent in October. The
index for food at home declined 0.1 percent in October, following a 0.3
percent increase in September. Decreases in the indexes for fruits and
vegetables and for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs--down 0.9 and 0.4
percent, respectively--more than offset increases in the other major food
at home groups. Within the fruits and vegetables group, the index for
fresh vegetables declined 1.8 percent, the index for fresh fruits fell 0.2
percent, and the index for processed fruits and vegetables decreased 0.4
percent. Each of the main groups within the index for meats, poultry,
fish, and eggs declined in October. The index for meats decreased 0.2
percent, reflecting a drop in prices for lamb and mutton; the indexes for
pork and for beef were unchanged and rose 0.1 percent, respectively. The
indexes for cereal and bakery products and for other food at home rose 0.4
and 0.3 percent, respectively. The other two major food at home groups--
dairy products and nonalcoholic beverages--each increased 0.1 percent.
The small advance in the index for dairy products was its first increase
in five months, while the index for nonalcoholic beverages had registered
a 2.2 percent increase in September. The other two components of the food
and beverages index, food away from home and alcoholic beverages,
increased 0.2 and 0.4 percent, respectively.
The index for housing rose 0.3 percent in October, following a 0.1
percent rise in September. Shelter costs, which increased 0.1 percent in
September, advanced 0.2 percent in October. Within shelter, the indexes
for rent and owners' equivalent rent each increased 0.3 percent, while the
index for lodging away from home was unchanged. (Prior to seasonal
adjustment, the index for lodging away from home declined 0.5 percent.)
The index for fuels and utilities rose 0.4 percent in October, the same as
in September. The index for fuel oil increased 1.9 percent in October,
and prices for fuel oil have risen 8.6 percent in the first 10 months of
2002. In October, the index for natural gas rose 2.9 percent, while the
index for electricity declined 0.5 percent. (Prior to seasonal
adjustment, fuel oil prices rose 4.3 percent and charges for natural gas
rose 3.0 percent, while charges for electricity fell 4.7 percent.) The
index for household furnishings and operations rose 0.3 percent in
October.
The transportation index rose 0.6 percent in October. The index for
gasoline increased for the fifth consecutive month--up 3.8 percent in
October. Gasoline prices have risen 29.9 percent thus far this year, but
remain 15.1 percent below their peak level in May 2001. The index for new
vehicles increased 0.4 percent in October, following a 0.5 percent rise in
September. During the last 12 months, however, new vehicle prices have
declined 1.1 percent. (As of October, about 35 percent of the new vehicle
sample was represented by 2003 models. The 2003 models will continue to
be phased in, with appropriate adjustments for quality change, over the
next several months as they replace old models at dealerships. For a
report on quality changes for the 2003 vehicles represented in the
Producer Price Index sample, see news release USDL-02-634, dated November
15, 2002.) The index for used cars and trucks declined 1.6 percent in
October to a level 4.5 percent lower than in October 2001. Airline fares
declined for the second consecutive month--down 2.4 percent in October--
and are 5.1 percent lower than a year ago.
The index for apparel was unchanged in October, following a 0.1
percent increase in September. (Prior to seasonal adjustment, apparel
prices rose 1.8 percent, reflecting price increases associated with the
continued introduction of fall-winter wear.)
The medical care index rose 0.6 percent in October to a level 4.8
percent above its level a year ago. The index for medical care
commodities--prescription drugs, nonprescription drugs, and medical
supplies--increased 0.3 percent. The index for medical care services rose
0.7 percent in October. Charges for professional services rose 0.6
percent and those for hospital and related services increased 0.9 percent.
The index for recreation, which was unchanged in September, rose 0.3
percent in October. Increases in the indexes for admissions to movies,
theaters, concerts, and sporting events and for cable television--up 1.4
and 1.0 percent, respectively--more than offset declines in the indexes
for pets and pet products, for photography, and for toys.
The index for education and communication, which declined 0.2 percent
in September, was unchanged in October. The education index rose 0.3
percent, reflecting a 0.5 percent increase in the index for college
tuition and fees. The index for communication costs declined 0.3 percent,
reflecting decreases in the indexes for telephone services and for
personal computers and peripheral equipment--down 0.2 and 1.9 percent,
respectively.
The index for other goods and services fell 0.5 percent in October,
largely as a result of a 3.1 percent decline in the index for tobacco and
smoking products. Prices for cigarettes decreased 3.3 percent, reflecting
increased discounting of some major brands.
CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W)
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and
Clerical Workers increased 0.2 percent in October.
Table B. Percent changes in CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical
Workers (CPI-W)
Seasonally adjusted Un-
Compound adjusted
Expenditure Changes from preceding month annual rate 12-mos.
Category 2002 3-mos. ended ended
Apr. May June July Aug. Sep. Oct. Oct. '02 Oct. '02
All Items .6 -.1 .1 .2 .3 .2 .2 2.8 1.9
Food and beverages .0 -.2 .1 .1 -.1 .2 .1 .9 .9
Housing .2 .3 .1 .2 .2 .2 .3 2.8 2.6
Apparel -.2 -.8 -.9 -1.0 1.1 .1 -.2 4.0 -2.2
Transportation 1.9 -.6 .2 .4 .5 .3 .5 4.8 1.7
Medical care .4 .5 .1 .8 .2 .3 .7 4.9 4.9
Recreation .3 -.2 -.3 .1 .0 .0 .3 1.2 .8
Education and
communication -.4 .7 .3 .7 .7 -.2 .0 2.2 1.8
Other goods and
services 2.2 -.9 1.5 .0 .8 .6 -.9 1.9 4.3
Special Indexes
Energy 5.0 -1.3 .2 .4 .7 .7 1.9 14.2 3.3
Food -.1 -.2 .1 .2 -.1 .2 .1 .7 .8
All Items less
food and energy .3 .1 .1 .2 .3 .2 .1 2.2 2.0
Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U)
The C-CPI-U rose 0.2 percent in October on a not seasonally adjusted
basis. The October level of 106.2 (December 1999=100) was 1.7 percent
higher than the index in October 2001. Table 7 contains the most recent
indexes for all items and the component series that are published. Data
will be published monthly in the CPI Detailed Report and are available on
the CPI home page: http://www.bls.gov/cpi/. Please note that the indexes
for the post-2000 period are subject to revision.
Consumer Price Index data for November are scheduled for release on
Tuesday, December 17, 2002, at 8:30 A.M. (EST).
___________________________________________________________________________
NOTE ON A NEW, SUPPLEMENTAL INDEX
OF CONSUMER PRICE CHANGE
The Bureau of Labor Statistics began publishing a consumer price
index (CPI) called the Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban
Consumers, effective with release of July data on August 16, 2002.
Designated the C-CPI-U, the index supplements the existing indexes already
produced by the BLS: the CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and the CPI
for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W).
The C-CPI-U employs a Tornqvist formula and utilizes expenditure data
in adjacent time periods in order to reflect the effect of any
substitution that consumers make across item categories in response to
changes in relative prices. The new measure, said to be a "superlative"
index, is designed to be a closer approximation to a "cost-of-living"
index than the CPI-U and CPI-W. The use of expenditure data for both a
base period and the current period in order to average price change across
item categories distinguishes the C-CPI-U from the other CPI measures,
which use only a single expenditure base period to compute the price
change over time. In 1999, the BLS introduced a geometric mean estimator
for averaging prices within most of the index's item categories in order
to approximate the effect of consumers' responses to changes in relative
prices within these item categories. The geometric mean estimator is used
in the C-CPI-U in the same item categories in which it is now used in the
CPI-U and CPI-W. (See Monthly Labor Review, October 1998, pp. 3-7.)
Expenditure data required for the calculation of the C-CPI-U are
available only with a time lag. Thus, the C-CPI-U is being issued first
in preliminary form using the latest available expenditure data at this
time and will be subject to two subsequent revisions. Accordingly, with
release of the July data, "final" values of the C-CPI-U have been issued
for the 12 months of 2000, "interim" values have been issued for the 12
months of 2001, and "initial" values have been issued for January-July 2of
2002. In February 2003, with release of the January 2003 index, revised
interim indexes for the 12 months of 2002 will be published, and the index
values for 2001 will be revised and will become final. Then, in February
2004, when the monthly expenditure data from calendar year 2002 become
available, C-CPI-U indexes for the 12 months of 2002 will be issued in
final form and values for the 12 months of 2003 will be revised and issued
as interim. The C-CPI-U index revisions are expected to be small, but in
principle each monthly index could be revised from its previously
published level.
___________________________________________________________________________
Facilities for Sensory Impaired
Information from this release will be made available to sensory
impaired individuals upon request. Voice phone: 202-691-5200, Federal
Relay Services: 1-800-877-8339. For a recorded message of Summary CPI
data, call (202) 691-5200.
___________________________________________________________________________
Brief Explanation of the CPI
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change in
prices over time of goods and services purchased by households. The
Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes CPIs for two population groups: (1)
the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which covers
households of wage earners and clerical workers that comprise
approximately 32 percent of the total population and (2) the CPI for All
Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and the Chained CPI for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-
U), which cover approximately 87 percent of the total population and
include in addition to wage earners and clerical worker households,
groups such as professional, managerial, and technical workers, the self-
employed, short-term workers, the unemployed, and retirees and others not
in the labor force.
The CPIs are based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, and fuels,
transportation fares, charges for doctors' and dentists' services, drugs,
and other goods and services that people buy for day-to-day living.
Prices are collected in 87 urban areas across the country from about
50,000 housing units and approximately 23,000 retail establishments-
department stores, supermarkets, hospitals, filling stations, and other
types of stores and service establishments. All taxes directly associated
with the purchase and use of items are included in the index. Prices of
fuels and a few other items are obtained every month in all 87 locations.
Prices of most other commodities and services are collected every month in
the three largest geographic areas and every other month in other areas.
Prices of most goods and services are obtained by personal visits or
telephone calls of the Bureau's trained representatives.
In calculating the index, price changes for the various items in each
location are averaged together with weights, which represent their
importance in the spending of the appropriate population group. Local
data are then combined to obtain a U.S. city average. For the CPI-U and
CPI-W separate indexes are also published by size of city, by region of
the country, for cross-classifications of regions and population-size
classes, and for 27 local areas. Area indexes do not measure differences
in the level of prices among cities, they only measure the average change
in prices for each area since the base period. For the C-CPI-U data are
issued only at the national level. It is important to note that the CPI-U
and CPI-W are considered final when released, but the C-CPI-U is issued in
preliminary form and subject to two annual revisions.
The index measures price change from a designed reference date. For
the CPI-U and the CPI-W the reference base is 1982-84 equals 100.0. The
reference base for the C-CPI-U is December 1999 equals 100.
An increase of 16.5 percent from the reference base, for example, is shown
as 116.5. This change can also be expressed in dollars as follows: the
price of a base period market basket of goods and services in the CPI has
risen from $10 in 1982-84 to $11.65.
For further details visit the CPI home page on the Internet at
http://www.bls.gov/cpi/ or contact our CPI Information and Analysis
Section on (202) 691-7000.
___________________________________________________________________________
Calculating Index Changes
Movements of the indexes from one month to another are
usually expressed as percent changes rather than changes in index
points, because index point changes are affected by the level of
the index in relation to its base period while percent changes are
not. The example below illustrates the computation of index point
and percent changes.
Percent changes for 3-month and 6-month periods are expressed
as annual rates and are computed according to the standard formula
for compound growth rates. These data indicate what the percent
change would be if the current rate were maintained for a 12-month
period.
Index Point Change
CPI 115.7
Less previous index 111.2
Equals index point change 4.5
Percent Change
Index point difference 4.5
Divided by the previous index 111.2
Equals 0.040
Results multiplied by one hundred 0.040 x 100
Equals percent change 4.0
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Regions Defined
The states in the four regions shown in Tables 3 and 6 are listed below.
The Northeast--Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York,
New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Vermont.
The Midwest--Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota,
Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin.
The South--Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky,
Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South
Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of
Columbia.
The West--Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana,
Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming.
___________________________________________________________________________
A Note on Seasonally Adjusted and Unadjusted Data
Because price data are used for different purposes by different groups,
the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes seasonally adjusted as well as
unadjusted changes each month.
For analyzing general price trends in the economy, seasonally adjusted
changes are usually preferred since they eliminate the effect of changes
that normally occur at the same time and in about the same magnitude every
year--such as price movements resulting from changing climatic conditions,
production cycles, model changeovers, holidays, and sales.
The unadjusted data are of primary interest to consumers concerned about
the prices they actually pay. Unadjusted data also are used extensively
for escalation purposes. Many collective bargaining contract agreements
and pension plans, for example, tie compensation changes to the Consumer
Price Index unadjusted for seasonal variation.
Seasonal factors used in computing the seasonally adjusted indexes are
derived by the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal Adjustment Method. The updated
seasonal data at the end of 1977 replaced data from 1967 through 1977.
Subsequent annual updates have replaced 5 years of seasonal data, e.g.,
data from 1997 through 2001 were replaced at the end of 2001. In January
2002, dependently seasonally adjusted series were revised for January 1987-
December 2001 as a result of a change in the aggregation weights for
dependently adjusted series. For further information, please see
"Aggregation of Dependently Adjusted Seasonally Adjusted Series," in the
October 2001 issue of the CPI Detailed Report.
The seasonal movement of all items and 54 other aggregations is derived by
combining the seasonal movement of 73 selected components. Each year the
seasonal status of every series is reevaluated based upon certain
statistical criteria. If any of the 73 components change their seasonal
adjustment status from seasonally adjusted to not seasonally adjusted, not
seasonally adjusted data will be used for the last 5 years, but the
seasonally adjusted indexes will be used before that period. Note: 39 of
the 73 components are seasonally adjusted for 2002.
Seasonally adjusted data, including the All items index levels, are
subject to revision for up to five years after their original release.
For this reason, BLS advises against the use of these data in escalation
agreements.
Effective with the calculation of the seasonal factors for 1990, the
Bureau of Labor Statistics has used an enhanced seasonal adjustment
procedure called Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment for some CPI
series. Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment allows for better
estimates of seasonally adjusted data. Extreme values and/or sharp
movements which might distort the seasonal pattern are estimated and
removed from the data prior to calculation of seasonal factors. Beginning
with the calculation of seasonal factors for 1996, X-12-ARIMA software was
used for Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment.
For the fuel oil, natural gas, motor fuels, and educational books and
supplies indexes, this procedure was used to offset the effects that
extreme price volatility would otherwise have had on the estimates of
seasonally adjusted data for those series. For the Nonalcoholic
beverages index, the procedure was used to offset the effects of a large
increase in coffee prices due to adverse weather. The procedure was used
to account for unusual butter fat supply reductions and decreases in milk
supply affecting the Fats and oils series. For the Water and sewerage
maintenance index, the procedure was used to account for a data collection
anomaly. It was used to offset an increase in summer demand in the
Midwest and South for Electricity. For New vehicles, New cars, and New
trucks, the procedure was used to offset the effects of a model changeover
combined with financing incentives.
A description of Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment, as well
as a list of unusual events modeled and seasonal factors for these items
may be obtained by writing the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Division of
Consumer Prices and Price Indexes, Washington, DC 20212 or by calling
Daniel Chow on (202) 691-6968 or sending e-mail to Chow_Dan@BLS.GOV. If
you have general questions about the CPI, please call our information
staff at (202) 691-7000.
Last Modified Date: November 19, 2002