Employment Situation Summary
Technical information:
Household data: (202) 691-6378 USDL 02-612
http://www.bls.gov/cps/
Establishment data: 691-6555 Transmission of material in this release is
http://www.bls.gov/ces/ embargoed until 8:30 A.M. (EST),
Media contact: 691-5902 Friday, November 1, 2002.
THE EMPLOYMENT SITUATION: OCTOBER 2002
Both nonfarm payroll employment and the unemployment rate were about un-
changed in October, the Bureau of Labor Statistics of the U.S. Department
of Labor reported today. Job losses in the construction, manufacturing, and
help supply industries were offset by gains in a number of other industries,
among them finance, real estate, and health services.
Unemployment (Household Survey Data)
The number of unemployed persons (8.2 million) and the unemployment rate
(5.7 percent) were essentially unchanged in October. The unemployment rate
for adult women edged up to 5.2 percent while the rates for the other major
worker groups--adult men (5.2 percent), teenagers (14.6 percent), whites
(5.1 percent), blacks (9.8 percent), and Hispanics (7.8 percent)--showed
little or no change over the month. (See tables A-1 and A-2.)
Total Employment and the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)
Total employment, as measured by the household survey, edged down in
October to 134.9 million, after seasonal adjustment. This followed a large
increase in September. The employment-population ratio, which had increased
in September, declined to 62.9 percent. (See table A-1.)
The civilian labor force, at 143.1 million, seasonally adjusted, was
little changed from the prior month. The labor force participation rate
declined to 66.7 percent. (See table A-1.)
About 7.2 million persons (not seasonally adjusted) held more than one
job in October. These multiple jobholders represented 5.4 percent of the
total employed. (See table A-10.)
Persons Not in the Labor Force (Household Survey Data)
About 1.4 million persons (not seasonally adjusted) were marginally
attached to the labor force in October, little changed from a year earlier.
These individuals reported that they wanted and were available for work and
had looked for a job sometime in the prior 12 months. They were not
counted as unemployed, however, because they had not actively searched for
work in the 4 weeks preceding the survey. The number of discouraged
workers was 355,000 in October, also about unchanged from the same month a
year earlier. Discouraged workers, a subset of the marginally attached,
were not looking for work specifically because they believed no jobs were
available for them. (See table A-10.)
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Table A. Major indicators of labor market activity, seasonally adjusted
(Numbers in thousands)
___________________________________________________________________________
| Quarterly | |
| averages | Monthly data |
|_________________|__________________________| Sept.-
Category | 2002 | 2002 | Oct.
|_________________|__________________________|change
| II | III | Aug. | Sept. | Oct. |
______________________|________|________|________|________|________|_______
HOUSEHOLD DATA | Labor force status
|____________________________________________________
Civilian labor force..| 142,605| 142,761| 142,616| 143,277| 143,123| -154
Employment..........| 134,149| 134,568| 134,474| 135,185| 134,914| -271
Unemployment........| 8,456| 8,193| 8,142| 8,092| 8,209| 117
Not in labor force....| 71,059| 71,465| 71,609| 71,152| 71,519| 367
|________|________|________|________|________|_______
| Unemployment rates
|____________________________________________________
All workers...........| 5.9| 5.7| 5.7| 5.6| 5.7| 0.1
Adult men...........| 5.3| 5.2| 5.2| 5.2| 5.2| .0
Adult women.........| 5.2| 5.0| 4.9| 4.9| 5.2| .3
Teenagers...........| 17.1| 16.9| 17.2| 15.7| 14.6| -1.1
White...............| 5.2| 5.1| 5.1| 5.1| 5.1| .0
Black...............| 10.7| 9.7| 9.6| 9.6| 9.8| .2
Hispanic origin.....| 7.4| 7.5| 7.5| 7.4| 7.8| .4
|________|________|________|________|________|_______
ESTABLISHMENT DATA | Employment
|____________________________________________________
Nonfarm employment....| 130,706|p130,868| 130,913|p130,900|p130,895| p-5
Goods-producing 1/..| 23,879| p23,794| 23,801| p23,770| p23,695| p-75
Construction......| 6,544| p6,547| 6,556| p6,567| p6,540| p-27
Manufacturing.....| 16,776| p16,694| 16,690| p16,651| p16,602| p-49
Service-producing 1/| 106,827|p107,073| 107,112|p107,130|p107,200| p70
Retail trade......| 23,327| p23,306| 23,295| p23,284| p23,298| p14
Services..........| 41,090| p41,316| 41,347| p41,386| p41,404| p18
Government........| 21,201| p21,270| 21,289| p21,293| p21,317| p24
|________|________|________|________|________|_______
| Hours of work 2/
|____________________________________________________
Total private.........| 34.2| p34.1| 34.1| p34.2| p34.1| p-0.1
Manufacturing.......| 41.0| p40.8| 40.9| p40.9| p40.7| p-.2
Overtime..........| 4.2| p4.1| 4.2| p4.1| p4.1| p.0
|________|________|________|________|________|_______
| Indexes of aggregate weekly hours (1982=100) 2/
|____________________________________________________
Total private.........| 148.3| p148.0| 148.1| p148.4| p147.8| p-0.6
|________|________|________|________|________|_______
| Earnings 2/
|____________________________________________________
Avg. hourly earnings, | | | | | |
total private.......| $14.71| p$14.82| $14.83| p$14.86| p$14.89| p$0.03
Avg. weekly earnings, | | | | | |
total private.......| 503.58| p505.48| 505.70| p508.21| p507.75| p-.46
______________________|________|________|________|________|________|_______
1/ Includes other industries, not shown separately.
2/ Data relate to private production or nonsupervisory workers.
p=preliminary.
- 3 -
Industry Payroll Employment (Establishment Survey Data)
Nonfarm payroll employment was virtually unchanged (-5,000) in October
at 130.9 million, although there were offsetting movements among various
industries. Employment also had held steady in September (-13,000 as
revised). In the 4 months prior to September, payroll employment had
increased by nearly a quarter of a million; this followed a loss of 1.8
million from March 2001 to April 2002. (See table B-1.)
Manufacturing employment declined by 49,000 over the month. The pace
of factory job losses increased in the last 3 months, averaging 47,000
a month since July, compared with 20,000 a month from April to July.
Employment in wholesale trade, an industry affected by manufacturing
activity, showed a similar, though less pronounced, pattern. In
manufacturing, October job losses were concentrated primarily within
durable goods, including electronic and electrical equipment, primary
metals, fabricated metals, and aircraft and parts manufacturing. Em-
ployment in the electronics industry has fallen by 44,000 in the past
3 months, following smaller losses in late spring and early summer. In
nondurable goods manufacturing, the apparel industry lost 7,000 jobs in
October, following a similar decline in September.
Employment in the construction industry decreased by 27,000 in October,
following an increase of 11,000 in September (as revised). Since April,
there has been no net growth in construction employment. Special trades
lost 30,000 jobs in October, with electrical work accounting for a large
part of the monthly decline.
Overall employment in the services industry was little changed
(+18,000) over the month. Employment in business services fell sharply
(-44,000), particularly in the help supply component (-56,000), which
provides workers to other businesses on an as-needed basis. In contrast,
health services continued to add jobs, with a gain of 20,000 in October,
and there was an increase of 7,000 jobs in legal services. Over the month,
employment also advanced in hotels and lodging places (16,000), offsetting
an identical loss over the prior 2 months combined.
Finance, insurance, and real estate added 34,000 jobs in October. After
little change in the first half of the year, the industry has added 70,000
jobs since June. Spurred by the lowest interest rates in decades, employment
growth continued in mortgage banks and brokerages; the industry added 17,000
jobs in October. Employment also rose in real estate. Since June, that in-
dustry has added 33,000 jobs.
The federal government added workers for the fifth month in a row, as
hiring continued for the Transportation Security Administration.
Employment in transportation was essentially unchanged over the month.
Workers involved in the labor dispute at West Coast ports were back at work
during the survey reference period. Thus, that dispute had no direct impact
on October's employment estimates.
- 4 -
Weekly Hours (Establishment Survey Data)
The average workweek for production or nonsupervisory workers on private
nonfarm payrolls edged down by 0.1 hour in October to 34.1 hours, seasonally
adjusted. The manufacturing workweek declined by 0.2 hour to 40.7 hours, and
factory overtime was unchanged at 4.1 hours. (See table B-2.)
The index of aggregate weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory
workers on private nonfarm payrolls was down by 0.4 percent in October to
147.8 (1982=100), seasonally adjusted. The manufacturing index was down
by 0.9 percent over the month to 91.3. (See table B-5.)
Hourly and Weekly Earnings (Establishment Survey Data)
Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on private
nonfarm payrolls increased by 3 cents in October to $14.89, seasonally ad-
justed. Average weekly earnings edged down by 0.1 percent over the month to
$507.75. Over the year, average hourly earnings rose by 3.0 percent and
average weekly earnings were up by 3.3 percent. (See table B-3.)
______________________________
The Employment Situation for November 2002 is scheduled to be released
on Friday, December 6, at 8:30 A.M. (EST).
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| New Seasonal Factors for Establishment Survey Data |
| |
| The 6-month updates to seasonal adjustment factors for the |
| establishment survey data will be introduced with next month's |
| release of November data. These factors will be used for the |
| September 2002 through April 2003 estimates and will be pu- |
| blished in the December 2002 issue of Employment and Earnings. |
| These factors will be available on Monday, December 2, on the |
| Internet (http://www.bls.gov/ces/) or by calling (202) 691-6555.|
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| Update on Current Population Survey Sample |
| |
| The Current Population Survey sample will not be cut in November|
| as previously announced. The Census Bureau had planned to decrease|
| the sample as a cost-saving measure but now has determined that the|
| sample reduction will not be necessary. |
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Upcoming Changes to Household and National Nonfarm Payroll Data Series
Household Data Series
Effective with the release of January 2003 data, several changes to the
Current Population Survey (CPS) will affect estimates contained in the
Employment Situation news release:
--Population controls that reflect the results of Census 2000 will be
used in the monthly CPS estimation process. In addition, CPS data series
from January 2000 through December 2002 will be revised to reflect the
introduction of the Census 2000-based population controls.
--The questions on race and Hispanic origin in the CPS will be modified
to comply with the new standards for federal statistical agencies. A
major change under those standards is that respondents may select more
than one race when answering the survey. Respondents will continue to
be asked a separate question to determine if they are Hispanic. The
Employment Situation news release will present data for persons who
report they are white and no other race, black or African American and
no other race, and Asian and no other race. Data will continue to be
presented for Hispanics separately.
--The CPS will adopt the Census industry and occupation classification
systems derived from the 2002 North American Industry Classification
System and the 2000 Standard Occupational Classification system. These
new classification systems represent complete breaks in the time series
for occupation and industry data. As a result, seasonally adjusted oc-
cupation and industry estimates from the household survey will not be
presented until sufficient time series become available for seasonal ad-
justment.
- 5 -
--The CPS program will begin using the X-12 ARIMA software for seasonal
adjustment of time series data. Because of the other revisions being
introduced with the January data, the annual revision of 5 years of
seasonally adjusted data that typically occurs with the release of data
for December will be delayed until the release of data for January.
Questions about upcoming changes to the CPS data series can be directed
to the Division of Labor Force Statistics at 202-691-6378.
National Nonfarm Payroll Data Series
NAICS conversion. The nonfarm payroll series, produced from the Current
Employment Statistics (CES) program, will be converted from the 1987
Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) basis to the 2002 North American
Industry Classification System (NAICS) basis with the June 6, 2003, release
of May 2003 estimates. The NAICS conversion involves major definitional
changes to many of the currently published SIC-based series. After the
conversion to NAICS, SIC-based series will no longer be produced or
published. Historical time series will be reconstructed as part of the
NAICS conversion process. All published series will have a NAICS-based
history extending back to at least January 1990. For total nonfarm and
other high-level aggregates, NAICS history will begin in January 1939, the
current starting date for these series. For more detailed series, the
starting date will vary depending on the scope of the definitional changes
between SIC and NAICS. The NAICS-based reconstruction effort will cover
all CES published data types: all employees, women workers, production
workers, average weekly hours, average hourly earnings, and derivative
series (for example, indexes of aggregate weekly hours).
Completion of the CES sample redesign. June 6, 2003, also will mark the
completion of the CES sample redesign phase-in. The redesign converts the
CES from a quota-based sample to a probability-based sample. In June 2003,
the services industries will be converted to the new sample design; all
other private sector industries have already been converted. The final
stage of sample redesign phase-in may result in level shifts for average
weekly hours, average hourly earnings, production worker, and women worker
series. New levels for these series are being recomputed from the NAICS-
based probability sample.
Concurrent seasonal adjustment. Also beginning in June 2003, the CES
program will convert to concurrent seasonal adjustment, which uses all
available monthly estimates, including those for the current month, in
developing seasonal factors. Currently, the CES program projects seasonal
factors twice a year. With the introduction of concurrent seasonal adjust-
ment, BLS will no longer publish seasonal factors for CES national estimates.
Change to federal government series. Beginning in June 2003, the CES
series for federal government employment will be revised slightly in scope
and definition due to a change in source data and estimation methods. The
current national series is an end-of-month federal employee count produced
by the Office of Personnel Management, and it excludes some workers, mostly
employees who work in Department of Defense-owned establishments such as
military base commissaries. The CES national series will include these
workers. Also, federal government employment will be estimated from a
sample of federal establishments, will be benchmarked annually to counts
from unemployment insurance tax records, and will reflect employee counts
as of the pay period including the 12th of the month, consistent with other
CES industry series. The historical time series for federal government
employment will be revised to reflect these changes.
Further information on upcoming changes to CES data series is available
through the BLS public database on the Internet, via the CES homepage at
http://www.bls.gov/ces/, or by calling 202-691-6555.
Last Modified Date: November 01, 2002
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