Consumer Price Index Summary
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CONSUMER PRICE INDEX: FEBRUARY 2003
The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased
0.8 percent in February, before seasonal adjustment, the Bureau of Labor
Statistics of the U.S. Department of Labor reported today. The February
level of 183.1 (1982-84=100) was 3.0 percent higher than in February 2002.
The Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers
(CPI-W) also increased 0.8 percent in February, prior to seasonal
adjustment. The February level of 179.2 was 3.2 percent higher than in
February 2002.
CPI for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U)
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI-U rose 0.6 percent in
February, following an increase of 0.3 percent in January. Energy costs,
which rose 4.0 percent in January, advanced 5.9 percent in February.
Within energy, the index for petroleum-based energy advanced 10.2 percent
and the index for energy services increased 1.6 percent. The index for
food rose 0.7 percent in February, following a 0.2 percent decline in
January. The index for food at home advanced 0.9 percent, reflecting
sharp upturns in the indexes for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs and for
fruits and vegetables. The index for all items less food and energy rose
0.1 percent in February, the same as in January. In February, the index
for shelter was virtually unchanged and the indexes for apparel and public
transportation each declined.
Table A. Percent changes in CPI for Urban Consumers (CPI-U)
Seasonally adjusted Un-
Compound adjusted
Expenditure Changes from preceding month annual rate 12-mos.
Category 2002 2003 3-mos. ended ended
Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Feb.'03 Feb.'03
All Items .2 .2 .2 .1 .1 .3 .6 4.3 3.0
Food and beverages -.1 .2 .1 .2 .2 -.2 .6 2.7 1.4
Housing .2 .2 .3 .1 .2 .4 .3 3.6 2.6
Apparel .8 -.2 -.2 -.2 -.2 -.9 -.2 -5.1 -2.3
Transportation .3 .2 .5 -.2 -.3 1.1 2.0 11.9 7.1
Medical care .2 .3 .6 .5 .4 .1 .1 2.5 4.5
Recreation .1 .1 .2 .0 .2 .2 .3 2.7 1.2
Education and
communication .6 -.1 .0 .0 .2 .5 .2 3.4 2.2
Other goods and
services .5 .4 -.5 .1 .1 .2 .3 2.6 2.5
Special indexes:
Energy .2 .4 1.4 -.5 -.4 4.0 5.9 44.9 22.0
Food -.1 .2 .1 .2 .2 -.2 .7 2.7 1.4
All items less
food and energy .3 .2 .1 .1 .2 .1 .1 1.5 1.7
The food and beverages index advanced 0.6 percent in February. The
index for food at home, which declined 0.2 percent in January, increased
0.9 percent in February, reflecting upturns in the indexes for meats,
poultry, fish and eggs, for fruits and vegetables, and for dairy products.
The index for meats, poultry, fish, and eggs, which declined 0.3 percent
in January, advanced 2.0 percent in February. The index for beef and veal
rose 3.3 percent, its largest monthly advance since a similar rise in
January 1984. The indexes for pork and for other meats increased 1.1 and
1.7 percent, respectively. Poultry prices, which declined in December and
January, increased 1.2 percent in February. The index for fruits and
vegetables rose 0.8 percent in February, following a 1.2 percent decline
in January. The indexes for fresh vegetables and for processed fruits and
vegetables increased 1.5 and 0.9 percent, respectively, while the index
for fresh fruits declined 0.1 percent. (Prior to seasonal adjustment,
prices for fresh fruits and fresh vegetables declined 3.7 and 1.1 percent,
respectively, while prices for processed fruits and vegetables rose 0.6
percent.) The index for dairy products, which declined 0.5 percent in
January, increased 0.5 percent in February, largely as a result of a
turnaround in the index for cheese and related products. The index for
nonalcoholic beverages declined for the second consecutive month, down 0.4
percent in February, reflecting another decline in the index for
carbonated drinks. The remaining two major grocery store food groups--
cereals and bakery products and other food at home--increased 0.9 and 0.4
percent, respectively. The index for food away from home increased 0.4
percent, while the index for alcoholic beverages decreased 0.2 percent
The index for housing rose 0.3 percent in February. Shelter costs,
which increased 0.3 percent in January, were virtually unchanged in
February. Within shelter, the indexes for rent and owners' equivalent
rent each increased 0.2 percent, while the index for lodging away from
home fell 1.8 percent. (Prior to seasonal adjustment, the index for
lodging away from home rose 2.9 percent.) The index for fuels and
utilities rose 2.0 percent in February. The index for fuel oil increased
15.8 percent in February, and prices for fuel oil were 48.6 percent higher
than in February 2002. The index for natural gas rose 5.5 percent,
bringing the increase in the past 12 months to 18.5 percent. The index
for electricity increased 0.1 percent in February, but declined 0.2
percent in the last 12 months. The index for household furnishings and
operations rose 0.2 percent in February.
The transportation index, which rose 1.1 percent in January, advanced
2.0 percent in February. The index for gasoline rose 9.9 percent in
February, following a 6.6 percent rise in January, accounting for
virtually all of the February advance in the transportation component.
(Prior to seasonal adjustment, gasoline prices rose 11.1 percent in
February.) As of February the price of gasoline was 4.3 percent lower
than its peak level of May 2001. The index for new vehicles decreased 0.1
percent in February and during the last 12 months has fallen 1.4 percent.
(As of January, about 90 percent of the new vehicle sample was represented
by 2003 models.) The index for used cars and trucks rose 0.4 percent in
February, but this index has declined 3.6 percent in the last 12 months.
Airline fares rose 1.2 percent in February, but are 3.2 percent lower than
a year earlier.
The index for apparel declined 0.2 percent in February. (Prior to
seasonal adjustment, apparel prices rose 2.1 percent, reflecting the
introduction of women's and girls' spring-summer apparel wear.)
Medical care costs rose 0.1 percent in February to a level 4.5
percent higher than a year ago. The index for medical care commodities--
prescription drugs, nonprescription drugs, and medical supplies--was
virtually unchanged. The index for medical care services rose 0.2 percent
in February. Charges for professional services and for hospital and
related services increased 0.1 and 0.4 percent, respectively.
The index for recreation rose 0.3 percent in February. Increases in
the indexes for club membership dues and fees for participant sports and
for admissions to movies, theaters, concerts, and sporting events--up 1.2
and 0.9 percent, respectively--more than offset small declines in the
indexes for toys, for sporting goods, and for photography. The indexes
for video and audio and for pets, pet products and services were unchanged
in February.
The index for education and communication increased 0.2 percent in
February, following a 0.5 percent rise in January. In February, the
education index rose 0.5 percent, while the index for communication costs
fell 0.1 percent. Within the latter group, a 2.9 percent increase in the
index for delivery services was more than offset by a 2.1 percent decline
in the index for personal computers and peripheral equipment.
The index for other goods and services rose 0.3 percent in February.
The index for miscellaneous personal services rose 0.5 percent, reflecting
increases of 1.2 and 0.9 percent in charges for legal services and for
financial services, respectively. The index for cigarettes was unchanged
in February after declining 0.1 percent in January, but has advanced 5.3
percent during the last 12 months.
CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W)
On a seasonally adjusted basis, the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and
Clerical Workers increased 0.7 percent in February.
Table B. Percent changes in CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical
Workers (CPI-W)
Seasonally adjusted Un-
Compound adjusted
Expenditure Changes from preceding month annual rate 12-mos.
Category 2002 2003 3-mos. ended ended
Aug. Sep. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Feb.'03 Feb.'03
All Items .2 .2 .2 .1 .1 .3 .7 4.6 3.2
Food and beverages -.1 .2 .1 .3 .2 -.1 .6 2.7 1.4
Housing .2 .2 .3 .2 .2 .4 .3 3.7 2.8
Apparel 1.0 -.2 -.3 -.2 -.2 -1.0 -.2 -5.4 -2.5
Transportation .2 .2 .5 -.3 -.3 1.2 2.2 13.1 7.5
Medical care .3 .3 .6 .5 .4 .1 .1 2.8 4.7
Recreation .0 -.1 .2 .0 .3 .1 .2 2.3 .9
Education and
communication .6 -.1 -.1 .0 .2 .4 .2 3.0 1.9
Other goods and
services .8 .6 -.9 .0 .0 .2 .3 1.8 2.7
Special indexes
Energy .2 .4 1.6 -.6 -.6 4.2 6.1 46.0 23.0
Food -.1 .2 .1 .3 .2 -.2 .7 3.0 1.4
All items less
food and energy .3 .1 .1 .1 .2 .1 .1 1.3 1.7
Chained Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-U)
The C-CPI-U increased 0.8 percent in February on a not seasonally
adjusted basis. The February level of 107.2 (December 1999=100) was 2.6
percent higher than in February 2002. Table 7 contains the most recent
indexes for all items and the component series that are published. Data
will be published monthly in the CPI Detailed Report and are available on
the CPI home page: http://www.bls.gov/cpi/. Please note that the indexes
for the post-2001 period are subject to revision.
Consumer Price Index data for March are scheduled for release on
Wednesday, April 16, 2003, at 8:30 A.M. (EDT).
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___________________________________________________________________________
Brief Explanation of the CPI
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of the average change in
prices over time of goods and services purchased by households. The
Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes CPIs for two population groups: (1)
the CPI for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W), which covers
households of wage earners and clerical workers that comprise
approximately 32 percent of the total population and (2) the CPI for All
Urban Consumers (CPI-U) and the Chained CPI for All Urban Consumers (C-CPI-
U), which cover approximately 87 percent of the total population and
include in addition to wage earners and clerical worker households,
groups such as professional, managerial, and technical workers, the self-
employed, short-term workers, the unemployed, and retirees and others not
in the labor force.
The CPIs are based on prices of food, clothing, shelter, and fuels,
transportation fares, charges for doctors' and dentists' services, drugs,
and other goods and services that people buy for day-to-day living.
Prices are collected in 87 urban areas across the country from about
50,000 housing units and approximately 23,000 retail establishments-
department stores, supermarkets, hospitals, filling stations, and other
types of stores and service establishments. All taxes directly associated
with the purchase and use of items are included in the index. Prices of
fuels and a few other items are obtained every month in all 87 locations.
Prices of most other commodities and services are collected every month in
the three largest geographic areas and every other month in other areas.
Prices of most goods and services are obtained by personal visits or
telephone calls of the Bureau's trained representatives.
In calculating the index, price changes for the various items in each
location are averaged together with weights, which represent their
importance in the spending of the appropriate population group. Local
data are then combined to obtain a U.S. city average. For the CPI-U and
CPI-W separate indexes are also published by size of city, by region of
the country, for cross-classifications of regions and population-size
classes, and for 27 local areas. Area indexes do not measure differences
in the level of prices among cities, they only measure the average change
in prices for each area since the base period. For the C-CPI-U data are
issued only at the national level. It is important to note that the CPI-U
and CPI-W are considered final when released, but the C-CPI-U is issued in
preliminary form and subject to two annual revisions.
The index measures price change from a designed reference date. For
the CPI-U and the CPI-W the reference base is 1982-84 equals 100.0. The
reference base for the C-CPI-U is December 1999 equals 100.
An increase of 16.5 percent from the reference base, for example, is shown
as 116.5. This change can also be expressed in dollars as follows: the
price of a base period market basket of goods and services in the CPI has
risen from $10 in 1982-84 to $11.65.
For further details visit the CPI home page on the Internet at
http://www.bls.gov/cpi/ or contact our CPI Information and Analysis
Section on (202) 691-7000.
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Calculating Index Changes
Movements of the indexes from one month to another are
usually expressed as percent changes rather than changes in index
points, because index point changes are affected by the level of
the index in relation to its base period while percent changes are
not. The example below illustrates the computation of index point
and percent changes.
Percent changes for 3-month and 6-month periods are expressed
as annual rates and are computed according to the standard formula
for compound growth rates. These data indicate what the percent
change would be if the current rate were maintained for a 12-month
period.
Index Point Change
CPI 115.7
Less previous index 111.2
Equals index point change 4.5
Percent Change
Index point difference 4.5
Divided by the previous index 111.2
Equals 0.040
Results multiplied by one hundred 0.040 x 100
Equals percent change 4.0
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Regions Defined
The states in the four regions shown in Tables 3 and 6 are listed below.
The Northeast--Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New York,
New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, and Vermont.
The Midwest--Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, Minnesota,
Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, Ohio, South Dakota, and Wisconsin.
The South--Alabama, Arkansas, Delaware, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky,
Louisiana, Maryland, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, South
Carolina, Tennessee, Texas, Virginia, West Virginia, and the District of
Columbia.
The West--Alaska, Arizona, California, Colorado, Hawaii, Idaho, Montana,
Nevada, New Mexico, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming.
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A Note on Seasonally Adjusted and Unadjusted Data
Because price data are used for different purposes by different groups,
the Bureau of Labor Statistics publishes seasonally adjusted as well as
unadjusted changes each month.
For analyzing general price trends in the economy, seasonally adjusted
changes are usually preferred since they eliminate the effect of changes
that normally occur at the same time and in about the same magnitude every
year--such as price movements resulting from changing climatic conditions,
production cycles, model changeovers, holidays, and sales.
The unadjusted data are of primary interest to consumers concerned about
the prices they actually pay. Unadjusted data also are used extensively
for escalation purposes. Many collective bargaining contract agreements
and pension plans, for example, tie compensation changes to the Consumer
Price Index unadjusted for seasonal variation.
Seasonal factors used in computing the seasonally adjusted indexes are
derived by the X-12-ARIMA Seasonal Adjustment Method. The updated
seasonal data at the end of 1977 replaced data from 1967 through 1977.
Subsequent annual updates have replaced 5 years of seasonal data; e.g.,
data from 1998 through 2002 were replaced at the end of 2002. In January
2002, dependently seasonally adjusted series were revised for January 1987-
December 2001 as a result of a change in the aggregation weights for
dependently adjusted series. For further information, please see
"Aggregation of Dependently Adjusted Seasonally Adjusted Series," in the
October 2001 issue of the CPI Detailed Report.
The seasonal movement of all items and 54 other aggregations is derived
by combining the seasonal movement of 73 selected components. Each year
the seasonal status of every series is reevaluated based upon certain
statistical criteria. If any of the 73 components change their seasonal
adjustment status from seasonally adjusted to not seasonally adjusted, not
seasonally adjusted data will be used for the last 5 years, but the
seasonally adjusted indexes will be used before that period. Note: 44 of
the 73 components are seasonally adjusted for 2003.
Seasonally adjusted data, including the All items index levels, are
subject to revision for up to five years after their original release.
For this reason, BLS advises against the use of these data in escalation
agreements.
Effective with the calculation of the seasonal factors for 1990, the
Bureau of Labor Statistics has used an enhanced seasonal adjustment
procedure called Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment for some CPI
series. Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment allows for better
estimates of seasonally adjusted data. Extreme values and/or sharp
movements which might distort the seasonal pattern are estimated and
removed from the data prior to calculation of seasonal factors. Beginning
with the calculation of seasonal factors for 1996, X-12-ARIMA software was
used for Intervention Analysis Seasonal Adjustment.
For the fuel oil, natural gas, motor fuels, and educational books and
supplies indexes, this procedure was used to offset the effects that
extreme price volatility would otherwise have had on the estimates of
seasonally adjusted data for those series. For the Nonalcoholic
beverages index, the procedure was used to offset the effects of a large
increase in coffee prices due to adverse weather. The procedure was used
to account for unusual butter fat supply reductions and decreases in milk
supply affecting the Fats and oils series. For the Water and sewerage
maintenance index, the procedure was used to account for a data collection
anomaly and dry weather in California. It was used to offset an increase
in demand due to warmer than expected weather and increased rates to
conserve supplies for Electricity. For New vehicles, New cars, and New
trucks, the procedure was used to offset the effects of a model changeover
combined with financing incentives.
For a complete list of series that used Intervention Analysis
Seasonal Adjustment, a list of unusual events modeled for them, or for a
description of intervention analysis please write to the Bureau of Labor
Statistics, Division of Consumer Prices and Price Indexes, Washington, DC
20212 or by calling Daniel Chow on (202) 691-6968 or sending e-mail to
Chow_Dan@BLS.GOV. If you have general questions about the CPI, please
call our information staff at (202) 691-7000.
Last Modified Date: March 21, 2003