AXNT20 KNHC 101759
TWDAT
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT SUN 10 AUG 2003
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN
TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE EQUATOR TO 32N INCLUDING NORTHERN
SECTIONS OF SOUTH AMERICA. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY... WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND
METEOROLOGICAL ANALYSIS.
BASED ON 1200 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND
SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 1715 UTC.
SPECIAL FEATURES...
NONE.
TROPICAL WAVES/ITCZ...
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 46W SOUTH OF 24N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT.
BROKEN LOW CLOUDS IN VISIBLE IMAGERY FROM 13N TO 23N BETWEEN
AND 40W AND 53W TURNING AROUND THE WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION FROM 21N TO 22N BETWEEN 45W AND 50W.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 63W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT.
NO DEEP CONVECTION. LINES OF LOW CLOUDS ON EITHER SIDE OF
WAVE...EAST OF 74W. NO DEEP CONVECTION.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 77W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 15-20 KT.
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG ITCZ CONVECTION IN THE
SW CARIBBEAN SEA...FROM PANAMA TO 11N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W.
ISOLATED CONVECTIVE CELLS ALONG SE JAMAICA COAST.
TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W/88W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 KT.
NO ATLANTIC BASIN CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.
AXIS OF ITCZ-RELATED CLOUDS/CONVECTION 12N15W 8N32W 9N49W
8N60W. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG IN AFRICA AND
COASTAL WATERS FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 14W AND 19W. WIDELY
SCATTERED TO SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN
120 NM ON EITHER SIDE OF AXIS...MAINLY...BETWEEN 26W
AND 35W...AND BETWEEN 43W AND 53W.
MIDDLE/UPPER LEVEL SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
GULF OF MEXICO...BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN GULF OF MEXICO AND
TEXAS AND MEXICO NORTH OF 25N WEST OF 94W. CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
CENTER JUST SOUTH OF GUADALAJARA MEXICO NEAR 20N103W. WEAK AREA
OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW OVER ISTHMUS OF TEHUANTEPEC. SURFACE TROUGH
ALONG 31N83W 27N85W 24N90W...BEING SUPPORTED BY DEEP LAYER
TROUGH FROM NORTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 28N90W...BEYOND
FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ALABAMA/GEORGIA BORDER.
MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IN THE ATLANTIC...NW
CARIBBEAN SEA...AND SE GULF OF MEXICO...WEST AND NORTH OF
32N70W 22N73W 15N80W 17N88W.
CARIBBEAN...MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER
NEAR BELIZE COAST FROM 17N TO 18N ALONG 88W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY WIND FLOW SOUTH OF 15N80W 17N72W 12N65W
12N60W.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW COVERS ATLC FROM 15N TO 32N
BETWEEN 52W AND 70W...AND THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF
16N69W 12N65W 12N60W...ASSOCIATED WITH A MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 25N58W. BROAD UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC FLOW AND MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL DRY AIR FROM 10N TO
30N BETWEEN 24W AND 48W. CYCLONIC FLOW BEGINNING TO DEVELOP
FROM 17N TO 22N BETWEEN 14W OVER AFRICA AND 22W.
SURFACE SYNOPTIC FEATURES...
DEEP LAYER TROUGH EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER SUPPORTS SURFACE
TROUGH ALONG 31N83W 27N85W 24N90W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION FROM 26N TO 27N BETWEEN 82W AND 86W. ISOLATED
MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTION IN ATLC WATERS FROM 24N
BEYOND 32N BETWEEN 70W AND 80W. SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED
STRONG CONVECTION IN NW GULF OF MEXICO...IN AREA OF UPPER LEVEL
DIFFLUENT FLOW...FROM 26N TO 28N BETWEEN 93W AND 97W.
1019 MB ATLANTIC LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 25N56W. WIDELY
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION FROM 26N TO
29N BETWEEN 58W AND 61W. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE
FROM 20N TO 30N BETWEEN 55W AND 64W. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 25N58W.
BROAD CYCLONIC SENSE TO THE ISOBARS IN THE EASTERN ATLC
AND OVER AFRICA...FROM 8N TO 30N EAST OF 28W.
SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS/CONVECTION...
GULF OF MEXICO...
CONVECTION WITH THE 31N83W 24N90W TROUGH...AND IN THE
NW GULF IN UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW.
CARIBBEAN SEA...
CONVECTION WITH THE 77W TROPICAL WAVE. ISOLATED MODERATE
CONVECTION NORTH OF 17N BETWEEN 73W AND 84W...UNDER THE
UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC FLOW.
TROPICAL ATLANTIC...
CONVECTION WITH THE ITCZ.
SUBTROPICAL ATLANTIC...
CONVECTION NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS WEST OF 70W...AND AROUND THE
25N56W ATLC 1019 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER. MIDDLE TO UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTER NEAR 25N58W.
$$
MT
AXPZ20 KNHC 101606
TWDEP
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1605 UTC SUN 10 AUG 2003
EASTERN PACIFIC OCEAN FROM 32N TO THE EQUATOR...EAST OF 140W.
SPECIAL FEATURES...
...TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO CENTER NEAR 15.3N 127.5W AT
10/1500 UTC MOVING WEST 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL
PRESSURE 1002 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 40 KT GUSTS
50 KT. SEE LATEST NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO
HEADERS MIATCMEP2/WTPZ22 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
...TROPICAL STORM HILDA CENTER NEAR 15.2N 117.5W AT 10/1500 UTC
MOVING WNW 12 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED 35 KT GUSTS 45 KT. SEE LATEST
NHC FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS
MIATCMEP3/WTPZ23 KNHC FOR MORE DETAILS.
SURFACE SYNOPTIC ANALYSIS VALID 10/1200 UTC...
...TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 77W SOUTH OF 20N MOVING WEST 10-15 KT.
ITCZ CONVECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 7N TO 10N BETWEEN 78W AND 80W.
...TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 87W/88W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST 10 KT.
ITCZ CONVECTION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG
FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 85W AND 89W.
...TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 100W/101W SOUTH OF 17N MOVING WEST
10-15 KT. ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG CONVECTION
IN CLUSTERS FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 98W AND 103W.
...1009 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER NEAR 13N135W MOVING WEST 5 KT.
ITCZ CONVECTION...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 12N TO
15N BETWEEN 134W AND 137W. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION ALSO
FROM 11N TO 13N BETWEEN 137W AND 139W.
...BROAD ANTICYCLONIC FLOW NORTH OF 20N WEST OF 114W.
INTERPRETATION OF SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH 10/1515 UTC...
TROPICAL STORM GUILLERMO...
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 127W AND
129W. T.S. GUILLERMO IS IN THE WEAKENING STAGES.
TROPICAL STORM HILDA...
NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION FROM 15N TO 16N BETWEEN 117W AND
118W....AND FROM 14N TO 15N BETWEEN 118W AND 119W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ELSEWHERE
FROM 12N TO 16N BETWEEN 116W AND 120W.
ITCZ...
AXIS OF ITCZ-RELATED CLOUDS/CONVECTION
9N77W 8N90W 9N100W 11N120W 11N132W 10N140W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 6N TO 9N BETWEEN 99W AND 103W.
SCATTERED MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG WITHIN 30 NM ON EITHER
SIDE OF AXIS BETWEEN 124W AND 132W.
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE/LOCALLY STRONG ELSEWHERE
FROM 6N TO 13N BETWEEN 90W AND 100W.ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE
FROM 9N TO 13N BETWEEN 137W AND 140W.
ELSEWHERE SOUTH OF 32N...
NOTHING ELSE.
$$
MT
|