FXHW60 PHFO 022045
AFDHI 

HAWAIIAN ISLANDS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
10 AM HST TUE DEC 2 2003

.SYNOPSIS...A COLD FRONT IS STALLING NEAR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII. 
HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED FROM KAUAI TO MAUI BUT A CHANCE OF HEAVY 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON THE BIG ISLAND. HIGH 
PRESSURE WILL BRING A RETURN OF TRADEWINDS FROM KAUAI TO MAUI THIS 
EVENING AND THE TRADES WILL SPREAD TO THE BIG ISLAND BY WEDNESDAY 
EVENING. TRADEWINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...AT 10 AM A SURFACE LOW WAS 650 MILES NORTHEAST OF MAUI 
NEAR 28N 150W WITH A FRONTAL CLOUD BAND TRAILING SOUTHWEST OVER THE 
ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL. NORTH WINDS AND MORE STABLE CONDITIONS HAVE 
SPREAD SOUTHWARD BEHIND THE FRONT AS FAR AS MAUI. THE FRONTAL BAND 
IS STALLING NEAR THE BIG ISLAND AND THE THREAT OF HEAVY SHOWERS OR 
THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS THERE.

A SURFACE HIGH FAR NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS IS FORECAST TO MOVE 
TOWARDS THE EAST SOUTHEAST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. AS IT DOES...
WINDS FROM KAUAI TO MAUI WILL SHIFT FROM NORTH TO EAST NORTHEAST AND 
BECOME TRADEWINDS. THE TRADEWINDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE BIG ISLAND BY 
WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL END TONIGHT BUT 
REMNANTS OF THE FRONT...WHICH WILL BECOME A SHEARLINE...WILL KEEP 
THE WINDWARD SIDE OF THE BIG ISLAND CLOUDY AND RAINY THROUGH 
THURSDAY. THE GFS MODEL SHOWS THE SHEARLINE MOVING BACK 
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE OTHER ISLANDS THURSDAY NIGHT BUT IT IS A 
LITTLE SOON TO TRUST THAT FORECAST. THERE MAY BE LITTLE LEFT OF THE 
SHEARLINE BY THEN. TRADEWINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A 
NEW FRONT MAY REACH THE ISLANDS EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT...AGAIN...IT IS 
TOO EARLY TO COUNT ON THAT HAPPENING.

&&

.MARINE...THE LOW NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS GENERATED A NEW SWELL 
THAT HAS ALREADY REACHED THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A HIGH SURF 
ADVISORY WAS ISSUED AT 10 AM FOR NORTH AND EAST FACING SHORES. THE 
HIGH SURF IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY BIG ISLAND VOLCANO SUMMITS CANCELLED AT 8 AM.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR NORTH AND EAST SHORES ISSUED 10 AM.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR NORTH SWELL.
  
&&

$$
DONALDSON