EMARC Forecaster

The Environment Monitoring and Response Centre (EMARC) is just one of the services provided by the National Meteorological Centre (NMC) in Exeter. The centre monitors phenomena like volcanic eruptions and floods, giving advice and predictions to people affected by such events. We even advise the Government when cold weather payments should be issued to pensioners in the winter.

Storm tides and flooding

One of the major roles of EMARC is the Storm Tide Forecasting Service (STFS). This was set up after the disastrous coastal floods that affected England in 1953. Working with the environment agencies, we provide forecasts of wind and sea state, and advise when thresholds are likely to be reached or exceeded with regard to coastal flooding.

The service operates 24-hours a day throughout the year, and covers most of the UK coastline. Fortunately, large storm surges that coincide with high tidal levels (spring tides), leading to severe flooding, are not very common.

Marine and air pollution

Another task for EMARC is to provide meteorological advice in the event of marine pollution incidents in UK waters, like oil spillages. We advise on where the spillage is likely to spread to, so the emergency services can take precautions. Again, these incidents are rare, but EMARC needs to be able to respond quickly when the need arises.

The Met Office also has a number of mathematical models that forecast the spread and concentration of atmospheric pollutants, and EMARC is involved in several services that use these models.

For example, police forces, fire services and local government departments can request a CHEMET (chemical meteorology) forecast at any time in the event of an incident that involves a toxic chemical, like a fire or spillage. We can rapidly provide, for example, a forecast of local wind speed and direction, general weather at the site and, using dispersion models, a copy of an ordnance survey map of the site showing the potential 'area at risk'.

Nuclear accidents

Another related role of EMARC is to forecast the likely spread and concentration of radioactive pollutants. The PACRAM forecast - it stands for procedures and communications in the event of a release of radioactive materials - forecast is, thankfully, a rare event.

Volcanoes

The Met Office is also a Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre (VAAC). Volcanic ash in the atmosphere can have a disastrous effect on jet aircraft engines, for example. VAAC London is operated within EMARC, and we give advice to the Civil Aviation Authority on the forecast dispersion from any volcanic eruption within our specified zone. The Iceland area is most at risk.

 

Disease outbreaks

A recently acquired task for EMARC is to provide meteorological advice regarding foot-and-mouth outbreak in the UK. Under guidance from other government departments, a dispersion model can be run to indicate the likely spread of the virus.