The Met Office develops and implements the ocean modelling systems
required to meet its customer needs. This includes ocean models
for wave forecasting,
our Forecasting Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM), a global and basin-scale
deep-ocean analysis and forecasting system, and regional shelf-seas
models. We also carry out seasonal forecasting using a combination
of atmospheric and coupled ocean-atmosphere models and statistical
techniques. For climate research, we provide and validate the ocean
component of the Hadley Centre's coupled ocean-atmosphere models.
We also co-ordinate the UK's contribution to the international
Argo programme for global ocean observing and host the international
GHRSST-PP (GODAE High Resolution Sea Surface Temperature - Pilot
Programme) Project Office. Our current work is described in the
sections below.
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| Operational ocean
forecasting |
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For those working at sea or living near the coast, forecasts of
wave height, ocean currents or storm surges are just as vital
as forecasts
of the weather. We routinely run a number of ocean models to provide
forecasts that help organisations such as ferry operators
and oil
companies to plan their operations at sea. This includes sea-state
forecasting with ocean wave models; development of our Forecasting
Ocean Assimilation Model (FOAM), a global real-time ocean analysis
and forecast model; and regional modelling of the shelf seas
around
the UK, for which a long-standing operational application is storm
surge prediction. Recently we have developed the capability
for ecosystem
modelling, both for the global oceans and the shelf-seas around
the UK.
More about operational
ocean forecasting
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To further develop these capabilities
we are establishing a National Centre for Ocean Forecasting (NCOF)
in association with Proudman Oceanographic
Laboratory, Plymouth Marine
Laboratory, Southampton
Oceanography Centre and the NERC
Environmental Systems Science Centre. The aim of NCOF is to
establish ocean forecasting as part of the national infrastructure,
this being based on world-class underpinning research and development.
The public launch of NCOF is planned for spring 2005.
More about NCOF
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Although it is generally not possible to forecast individual weather
events more than several days in advance, it is possible to provide
useful predictions of conditions averaged over weeks to months and
over large areas. We provide experimental seasonal predictions, covering
all areas of the globe, to UK government departments, United Nations
organisations, and national meteorological services worldwide. More-detailed
forecasts (Monthly Outlook) for
up to one month ahead are produced and used by the commercial sectors.
More about seasonal prediction
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| Development of global ocean models for climate
prediction |
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There is a constant exchange of heat, momentum and water between
ocean and the atmosphere. The ocean acts as a heat sink to delay
climate change and ocean currents transport large amounts of heat
and water around the world. The rate of change of climate is largely
determined by processes in the ocean interior and ocean modelling
is necessary in predicting climate change.
More about ocean modelling
for climate
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| Participation in national and international
projects and groups |
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In addition, we participate in a number of national
and international projects and groups.
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