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Population and Poverty
In countries with high HIV/AIDS prevalence, the
pandemic is killing large numbers of people in
their most productive years, increasing the ratio of
dependents to working-age populations and creating
a worst-case scenario with respect to the demographic
transition.
For the seven African countries with adult HIV
prevalence of 20 per cent or more, the population
is projected to be 35 per cent lower by 2025 than it
would have been in the absence of AIDS. By 2020-2025,
life expectancy in these countries will be 29 years
less than it would be without AIDS, a 41 per cent
difference.(8)
There is also growing evidence
that per capita economic growth
will be diminished as a result of
increasing dependency ratios,
increased burdens on health systems,
constrained investment in
productivity and reduced labour
forces.
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