. July 9, 2004 | 2:05 p.m. ET
A (Temporary) Farewell
As some of you know, when I'm not ruminating in this space, I'm the editor and general manager of Newsweek.com here on MSNBC, a job I've had since 1998. But as much as I love my work at Newsweek, I've lately grown a bit restless. I've actually been at Newsweek since 1983, first as the technology editor based out in Silicon Valley, watching the very early years of the personal computer industry, an era when Steve Jobs and Bill Gates still sometimes answered their own phones. Then, when I actually started to believe the stuff I was writing, I became involved in Newsweek's digital strategy, which led me from HyperCard and laserdisc (way back in 1989) through a half-dozen documentary CD-ROMs, Prodigy, AOL and finally the Web. Newsweek.com on MSNBC is now the most successful newsweekly site in the world. The operation is in good hands on both the editorial and business sides, and I'm starting to get the itch to build something new. Working for Newsweek has been a luxury -- one of the last true general-interest entities in a world of increasingly vertical content silos. I'll greatly miss the remarkable experience of working in an office with dozens of extremely bright people, most of whom are experts in one aspect of the world or another. It's been like a non-stop college dorm bull session, only with folks who actually know what they're talking about. On the other hand, for the first time in twenty-one years, I won't have to feign even the vaguest interest in the upcoming political conventions. So now I'm going to take the rest of the summer off, retreat to a small island off the coast of Maine, and contemplate what to do next. One thing I'm sure about, however, is that the Practical Futurist will be back in the fall, in one venue or another, but always reachable via www.practicalfuturist.com. Have a great summer, and see you in September! . July 7, 2004 | 1:22 p.m. ET
Pirates Ahoy!
There's a new study on global software piracy from the Business Software Alliance -- the enforcement group founded to combat software theft -- and it makes interesting reading. Software activists sometimes accuse the BSA of being overzealous in their attempts to stamp out piracy, but on the basis of this IDC study (which is likely more trustworthy than one conducted by the industry itself), they still have some distance to go. This is also interesting as it's the first time the BSA has included consumer software in the mix. Tied for first place as the planet's prime pirates are Vietnam and China, with 92% of their software pirated. Close behind is Ukraine, at 91%. On the other end, the United States is the honesty champ with only 22% piracy, closely followed by New Zealand at 23%. In terms of regions, Eastern Europe came in first at 70% -- Asia/Pacific's otherwise astounding piracy rate was cut to 53% due primarily to Japan's low 29% theft rate. In all, the BSA estimates a total global loss of $29 billion in 2003 due to piracy, as just over a third of the planet chose not to pay for their apps. It's remarkable to think that less than thirty years ago a kid who signed himself William Henry Gates III wrote "An Open Letter to Hobbyists" in which he noted that "as the majority of hobbyists must be aware, most of you steal your software" -- much of that software having been written by his new company, Micro-Soft. William Henry then went on to ask them to reconsider their actions, and offered his address in Albuquerque if they wanted to make things right and send him a few bucks. "Nothing," he concluded, "would please me more than being able to hire ten programmers and deluge the hobby market with good software." . July 6, 2004 | 2:55 p.m. ET
Sensor Technology: Sci-Fi meets Reality
Here's a treat for readers who like both science fiction and forward-looking technology coverage. One of my favorite technology magazines, the IEEE's always-interesting Spectrum, has devoted their July issue to the topic of sensor technology. What kind of world will result when we have a wireless Internet connecting potentially millions of sensors that can see, hear, feel and even smell the environment around them? In an excerpt from an upcoming novel, science fiction writer (and former computer science professor) Vernor Vinge writes about such a world -- and also incorporates the notion of truly immersive computing, where the reality we see can be shaped by inputs other than our natural senses. "Synthetic Serendipity" follows the adventures of a kid named Mike Villa, a somewhat reluctant high school student and ardent gamer in a virtual-reality future where even very successful senior citizens are sent back to high school to be retrained for the constantly mutating workplace. The fiction piece is followed by "Mike Villa's World," an article that looks at just how likely Vinge's science fiction constructs are, and talks to folks like VR pioneer Jason Lanier to learn what it will take to make them happen. A terrific editorial package, and best of all the Spectrum editors have made both pieces available on their public Web site.
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