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2) What evidence is there that climate change is happening? 3) Is the warming a consequence of human activities? 4) Can we prevent climate change by reducing emissions of greenhouse gases? 5) What's the difference between global warming and climate change? 6) Isn't there a chance that Northern Europe could get much colder? 8) Why would sea levels rise if it gets warmer? 9) Will it become more stormy? 10) Where can we get more information about climate science? 12) Isn't the UK a winner in terms of climate change? If so, why worry so much? 13) Why doesn't UKCIP concentrate on preventing climate change? 14) Where can my organisation find funding for research? 15) How will my business by affected by climate change? 16) How can I find out more about flooding? 17) Where can I find out about international negotiations to reduce emissions?
Climate refers to the average weather experienced in a region over a long period, typically 30 years. This includes temperature, wind and rainfall patterns. The climate of the Earth is not static, and has changed many times in the past in response to a variety of natural causes. The term ‘climate change’ usually refers to recent changes in climate which have been observed since the early 1900’s. The earth is kept warm by the greenhouse effect. Certain gases in the atmosphere (so-called greenhouse gases) absorb energy that is radiated from the Earth’s surface, and so warm the atmosphere. The greenhouse effect is a natural phenomenon without which life on Earth as we know it would not be possible, as the Earth would be 30°C cooler. However, our modern lifestyles have resulted in us releasing large amounts of greenhouse gases – like carbon dioxide and methane – into the atmosphere, enhancing the greenhouse effect and so pushing up temperatures globally.
Most climate scientists agree that the world is going to get warmer. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was set up by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Programme in 1988 to assess scientific and socio-economic information on climate change and its impacts and to advise the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. In its Third Assessment Report it projects that global temperatures could rise by between 1.4 and 5.8°C by the end of this century. The range of temperatures reflects a number of uncertainties, as many aspects of the weather are not fully understood, such as the impact of clouds, which can have both warming and cooling effects. Also unclear is the role of ocean currents, and role of the carbon cycle in oceans and forests. Central England has one of the longest temperature records dating back to 1659. This record shows that temperatures have increased by 0.7°C in the UK since 1659. Of that, a rise of 0.5°C occurred in the 20th century. Globally, average temperatures have increased by 0.6°C since 1860.
In 1995, the IPCC concluded that the balance of evidence suggested that the recent observed warming of the Earth’s atmosphere was due to human activities. In 2001, it concluded that "most of the warming observed over the last 50 years is likely to be attributable to human activities." Recent temperature rises can only be explained by human activities — computer models that simulate climate demonstrate that other variations, such as the sun’s output and changes in volcanoes cannot account for all the warming. Only when human activities are included in the models do they correlate with observed changes.
Experiments run on global climate models show us that when we reduce emissions of carbon dioxide, we reduce the rate of rise of average global temperatures and so lessen the rate and impacts of climate change. We can therefore slow the rate of warming by changing our behaviour. However, once released into the atmosphere, carbon dioxide remains there for about 100 years. So even if we were to reduce emissions, we are committed to a certain amount of warming and are likely to see a global rise in temperature of 2°C by the end of the century owing to greenhouse gases currently in the atmosphere. We may need to reduce emissions by 60-70% to stabilise the climate completely.
Global warming refers to the increase in the average temperature of the earth’s atmosphere. Climate change refers to the changes in climate that might accompany the warming of the atmosphere, such as changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme weather and sea level rise. Many people use these expressions interchangeably. However, the word ‘warming’ may be misleading, as it doesn’t suggest the range of changes that could result.
The UK’s climate is affected by the Gulf Stream, which brings warm water from the Gulf of Mexico across the Atlantic Ocean to north west Europe. This warm water keeps the climate of the UK warmer than continental locations at similar latitudes. Some scenarios of climate change suggest that with further climate change, the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation (THC), of which the Gulf Stream is a part, could ‘shut down’. If this were to happen, average temperatures in the UK would drop by some 4°C. Research at the Met Office shows that global warming could reduce the strength of the THC circulation by 25% by 2100. However, the direct heating of global warming would be greater than any cooling effect from reduced activity of the THC. A cold future is therefore very unlikely. Fur further information see the current guidance note on slowing of THC. Greenhouse gases are naturally occurring gases in the atmosphere that have the capacity to absorb long-wave radiation emanating from the Earth’s surface. By absorbing this energy and re-radiating it, the gases cause the temperature of the Earth’s lower atmosphere and surface to increase. The most common greenhouse gases are water vapour and carbon dioxide. Others include methane and nitrous oxide. Man's activities have increased concentrations of all of these gases and have also introduced new ones, such as CFCs.
Oceans absorb heat from the atmosphere. As the atmosphere warms, so too do the oceans. When water is warmed, it expands, causing sea levels to rise. In addition, as the temperature of the oceans and atmosphere increases, so glaciers and small ice sheets melt, releasing water into the oceans and contributing to sea level rise. In addition, the UK and northern Europe are still responding to the melting of ice sheets that covered the land during the last Ice Age. Mainland Britain is slowly tilting, with South and East England slowly sinking into the sea and the North West and Scotland rising.Sea level rises around the UK would increase the risk of flooding and coastal erosion.
With more energy in the climate system, it is possible that storms could become more severe in future, but the climate models do not give consistent findings.
The UK Climate Impacts Programme works closely with the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research at the Met Office, the Climatic Research Unit and the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of East Anglia.
The earlier you find out the likely impacts, the more options you have for adapting, including taking advantage of opportunities. This is particularly important when it comes to major investment decisions and decisions that may affect whole sectors, or communities. In addition, the sooner we take action to reduce emissions, the greater the chance of stabilising the climate.
The UK will be warmer and this will certainly bring advantages. However, we are also likely to experience more extreme weather and we need to start planning now to deal with the consequences, such as additional flooding, drought and sea level rise. There are also likely to be serious implications for other parts of the world, for example, our trading partners, that will have effects for the UK. It’s in our interest to be prepared.
There is a lot of work going on to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and so to limit the impact of climate change. Some climate change is inevitable because of the emissions human activity has already released, so UKCIP was set up by the Government to co-ordinate research into the impacts of climate change and to help organisations assess how they will be affected so they can plan to adapt. This in itself is a major task. UKCIP’s work on climate change adaptation is complementary to the work going on to limit climate change.
UKCIP does not fund research itself. To date, most research into the impacts of climate change has been undertaken in partnership, with each organisation contributing according to their budget. Please contact us for advice if you are interested in undertaking research.
UKCIP’s role is to help organisations find out how they will be affected by climate change. In 2003, UKCIP began a pilot project to engage business sectors in the process of building capacity within the sector on climate change impacts and adaptation called ‘A changing climate for business’. For information about how organisations of all kinds can assess their vulnerability and develop an appropriate response, go to our resources section. Information about ‘A changing climate for business’, is avaliable here.
The Environment Agency of England and Wales can advise you as to whether your property is in the floodplain and offer information on how to protect yourself, your family and your property against flooding. Click here for more information The Environment Agency’s Floodline number is 0845 988 1188.
The negotiation process was set up by the United Nations. For more information visit the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) web site. |
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