WARRENDALE, Ore. — Numbers don't lie. They can be fudged, padded, twisted, juggled and skewed, but in the end, they're indisputable.

Or are they?

Perhaps moreso than any other fishery in the Columbia River spring Chinook lineup, the annual April attack on springers between Rooster Rock and Bonneville is very clearly defined by one number: the adult Chinook passage count past the fish ladder at Bonneville Dam.

History indicates that, if the number is low — as has been the case through much of the 2005 springer season so far — the year's class of upriver fish haven't moved out of the lower river yet.

Ken Malueg, Jr. and daughter Katie nailed a pair of Chinook below Bonneville Dam in early March 2003.

For obvious reasons, those low dam counts often keep the bulk of the springer boats grouped around lower-river tributary fisheries, like the mouths of the Lewis, Cowlitz and Willamette rivers.

But when that same ladder count gets really high on a consistent basis, usually in May, the fish are moving out of the Bonneville area and into upriver fisheries, like the Wind River, Drano Lake and the mouth of the Deschutes.

But doesn't it seem like there should be a middle ground somewhere, when counts are high enough to indicate that a fishable portion of the run has made it past the lower river tributaries, yet still low enough to indicate that fish are still hovering below the dam?

With the traditional April pressure peak barreling down on us, we asked a handful of the best rods on the river to give us the "magic number" — the number they'll use to gauge this year's Bonneville fishery.

Turns out that numbers might not tell the whole story this season.

"I've had killer days when the dam count was dismal, where fish were stacked up below the dam before they moved over."

"The guys at the Wind River and Drano wait until there's 1,500 fish a day over the dam before they get serious, but I'm not so sure it's going to matter as much below the dam this year."

"Bottom line: If I can fish it, I'll be there the first week in April, no matter what."

Those counts traditionally climb through the first two weeks of the month — building to 2,000 a day by April 6 and 3,000 a day by April 11 — before arriving at the one date that you should absolutely pay attention to this year, come Hell or low water: April 15, as in tax Day.

"From April 15 on is slay time,

"If the dam counts aren't good by then, they won't be good all season. It won't take a huge dam number to get the fishing good up there, although, I guess it'd be nice to have that reassurance (of strong counts)."

"But even if we never do see those numbers, I'll still be up there the third week in April."

Fear factors

As late March, the year-to-date Bonneville counts were a dismal 4 percent of the 10-year average.

Late March is still much too early to be sending up alarm flares, but the inordinately low counts, coupled with an equally inordinate lack of water has the Columbia springer corps shifting uncomfortably in their deck seats.

"The one thing that could throw a giant monkey wrench into it is the low, low, clear water. It's way, way low."

"I mean, pretty damn low. We had clear water in 2001, which was the last low-water year, but it wasn't quite as low then as it is now."

"I think everybody is waiting to see what happens on the next good set of tides, waiting to see if all Hell breaks loose finally."

March's slow showing is even more troubling in light of the age-class breakdown of the 2005 run, which is comprised mostly of early-running 5-year-olds.

And yet another potential cause of heartburn for Bonneville sport anglers: a second consecutive over-forecast, which would ultimately cost recreational anglers time on the water during the traditional late April peak.

"If those predictions are off and there's a midseason adjustment, it'll cost the sport guys, not the gillnetters. They'll already have their fish."

Here's hoping

All that said, you'd be crazy not to plan for Bonneville in April.

Harvest figures indicate that the biggest number of fin-clipped spring Chinook hit the decks when the Columbia is open between Rooster Rock and the deadline at Bonneville, and this year's fishery — despite a limited Sunday, Monday, Tuesday opening — will provide plenty of April action.

"I'm going to remain optimistic until I'm proven wrong, but I think we'll have a good fishery at Bonneville."

"We'll see how the whole thing plays out, but I'm betting on it being a good place to be in April."

Low-water tech tips

Take some advice from the guys who have been banging away at fish below I-5 for the past month and a half: The 2005 bite is different than the 2004 bite.

The class of 2004 went on a wicked split plug/spinner bite that matched the early-season bite in the lower river, but the spring of 2005 is shaping up to be a stronger year to run bait.

"It sure seems to be more of a herring bite than a plug bite this year, at least down low,"

"The really good bait trollers are doing a lot better than the pluggers.

What'll that mean when I fish Bonneville?

Well, I'll still fish Kwikfish and spinners, but I'll think a little more about putting out bait." Some anglers use FlatFish.

That means breaking out the cannonballs and back-bouncing big gobs of eggs.

"The last couple of years, I'd have told you to fish shelves, ledges and bars, but I can tell you one thing for sure this year: They're running deeper," he said.

"Typically I'd tell somebody to target 13 to 20 feet, but I'm finding fish a lot deeper this year. I'd be looking more at 20 to 30 feet."

The thinner water will also translate into tighter fishing conditions than last year, so be prepared to fish in a crowd.

Best dam fishing spots

You'll find the right combination of fish-holding structure and depth throughout the Rooster-to-Bonneville stretch, but here are a handful of spots to focus on:

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