Alaska Landscape Cumulative Effects Model (ALCES)
For the Kenai Peninsula, Alaska
The various federal, state, and local government agencies often collect and analyze data independent from each other and other organizations. These distinct datasets often prove to be very useful when used in conjunction with each other, especially when incorporated into an inclusive model. A cumulative effects model tracking landuse practices and natural processes centralizes the data and provides a more comprehensive approach to resource planning and long-term monitoring.
Recognizing the utility of such an approach the Kenai Watershed Forum in conjunction with the Kenai National Wildlife Refuge has created a cumulative effects model for the entire Kenai Peninsula. KWF has worked closely with Dr. John Morton, who initiated the project, and other refuge staff who collectively have been instrumental in contributing staff time, expertise, data, and monetary support needed to adapt such a model to the entire Kenai Peninsula. The model that was ultimately chosen for customization and application is called ALCES or the Alaska Landscape Cumulative Effects Simulator, developed by Dr. Brad Stelfox. It is a holistic, spatially-stratified tool incorporating land use practices and natural processes acting over the landscape of the Kenai Peninsula.
ALCES quantitatively projects changes in dynamic landscapes based on various scenarios set by the user and runs in simulations of up to 200 years from the present. Users can set scenarios to mimic one management practice or an entire management plan while simultaneously considering natural processes. ALCES integrates landuse practices, such as energy extraction, logging, human population growth and associated infrastructure; natural processes, such as insect outbreak and wildfire regimes; and human-influenced natural processes such as climate change. ALCES uses this information in unison to project changes for select indicators including brown bear, coho, and moose habitat, or flows of employment, revenue, and expenses related to the landuses. In just one simulation, an entire management plan can be run to display the expected changes for each indicator. By manipulating the scenarios the economic, social, or environmental costs can be mitigated and/or the benefits enhanced. Users can then implement practices accordingly to achieve the best desired outcome.
Using brown bear occurrence model as the indicator, the graphics below represent examples of simulations that compare several scenarios.
Above: In this example three scenarios were run to compare population and associated infrastructure growth at 1%, 2% and 4%. The pink line indicates that decline in brown bear occurrence is greatest with the largest increase in human population.
Above: This example represents the occurrence of brown bear with and without climate change. The blue line indicates that decline in brown bear occurrence is greatest with significant changes in the climate.
ALCES operates partially on quantitative data extracted from a Geographic Information System (GIS) that has been developed for the KWF. A GIS links maps with databases to address spatial questions. KWF’s GIS is a seamless coverage of the entire peninsula including vegetation, hydrology, and specific land uses. Other quantitative data not in GIS format that was also incorporated in the model include meteorological records, data from the utilities, energy, and forestry sectors, and general community and economic data.
ALCES simulation depicting the future occurrence of wildfires and spruce bark beetle kill within the Kenai National Widlife Refuge boundaries through 2056. Future fires in white spruce forests are in red, fires in black spruce forests are in yellow, and spruce bark beetle kill is in green. These simulations are one of many plausible scenarios.
We’re currently working on several projects that will allow us to more fully utilize ALCES. One of the projects includes getting software that will allow us to plug ALCES outputs into maps similar to the image above. We’re also working on developing a web-based educational version that could be used in schools similar to one already developed called “Alberta Tomorrow”.
Development of the model proceeded with the collaboration of many of the local land holding agencies and other interested parties. These entities, which form the ALCES Consortium as indicated in the Memorandum of Understanding include the Chugach National Forest, Homer Soil and Water Conservation District, Kenai Fjords National Park, Kenai National Wildlife Refuge, Kenai Peninsula Borough, Kenaitze Indian Tribe, Ninilchik Traditional Council, Port Graham Village Council, Seldovia Village Tribe, U.S. Environmental Protection Agency, The Wilderness Society, the Kachemak Heritage Land Trust, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and the Kenai Watershed Forum. Expertise to populate the model was derived from many of these agencies as well as state and private agencies.
Please contact Stephanie Kobylarz for more specific information about this project.
For more general information on the ALCES model, please visit the website at http://www.foremtech.com.