
Kelly Slater
Remember, the IT industry is rife with hype and talks of the next big thing. Most fads come and go. Few stick, fewer live on. Why then should Cloud Computing be any different?
Well, looking at historic examples of technical innovation crossing into the mainstream, three key characteristics are clear: multiple applications [for the technology], falling price and universal availability (Freeman and Soete, 1997, p.63). Cloud computing certainly possesses all three. This might mean that Cloud is positioned favourably to make significant headway.
Successive waves of technical innovation, culminating in what we are enjoying in the present information and communication age, could be the very springboard for the next successive wave. Those who are conversant with industrial economics will recognise these successive industrial revolutions as Long Waves, or Kondratieffs (Freeman and Soete, 1997, pp. 65-70; Schumpeter, 1939, p. 164, p. 397; Landes, 1969, p. 233).
Visionaries in the computing sector like to preach step-change innovation, transformation and new ways of working. Whether Cloud Computing proves transformative remains to be seen. What we do know is that IBM and Microsoft have already thrown their hats in the ring on Cloud Computing. Customers loyal to those vendors’ technologies are likely to follow. Others are perhaps less radical, preferring hybrid models or blended solutions based on a mix of the ‘old’ [on-premise] and the new [Cloud]. Still others have gone on record as wanting nothing to do with the hype of Cloud, most notably and surprisingly Mr. Larry Ellison, the charismatic chief executive of Oracle with his now infamous anti-cloud rant (McLaughlin, 2008; Saor, 2008; Techpulse360, 2009).
Information security continues to be the key barrier, and not just with the early adopters. Countless times we encounter the valid objection “where exactly is my data?” and the response “it’s in the cloud” frankly doesn’t resonate. No surprise then that they walk away and back to on-premise exclusively. No blame, no shame. The IT industry really must find a better way to articulate the benefits and the drawbacks of Cloud Computing and what it might mean for organisations of all sizes and all sensitivities towards security issues.
That’s what we’ve been doing. Progress has been good but frankly we’ve not gone out with all guns blazing because we haven’t had all the answers. We agree in part with Mr. Ellison, insofar as you can’t gamble a good reputation on fluffy notions with no substance, just because it’s the latest fad and you want to be ‘seen’ to be in with the ‘in’ crowd. Yet, we can now see the case in favour of Cloud is indisputable and not to be ignored.
Cloud is a serious contender, not just with small and medium size businesses but also with large enterprises and complex organisations. And if Cloud is really to be the innovation that drives the sixth Kondratieff wave, then it’s to those enterprises we feel we must now turn our attentions on meeting their objectives with relevant Cloud-based solutions where appropriate as part of their enterprise architecture.
One could argue, perhaps using an analogy from sports such as sea surfing, that one wave necessarily will follow another. In other words, each wave matters little: if you miss this wave don’t worry because another will be along in a minute. Whilst this may be true, accomplished experts such as Kelly Slater, nine times ASP world champion, know to pick their wave carefully because being on the right one is often the difference between beating the competition, and not winning at all.
References
Association of Surfing Professionals (2010) [Online]. Available at <http://www.aspworldtour.com/> [accessed 28 Aug 2010].
Farber, D. (2008) ‘Oracle’s Ellison nails cloud computing’ CNET News. 26 September. [Online]. Available at <http://news.cnet.com/8301-13953_3-10052188-80.html> [accessed 28 August 2010].
Freeman, C. and Soete, L. (2000) Economics of industrial innovation. 3rd edn. London: Continuum.
Kelly Slater Official Site (2010) [Online]. Available at <http://www.kellyslater.com/> [accessed 28 Aug 2010].
‘Kondratiev wave’ (2010) Wikipedia. Available at <http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Kondratiev_wave > [accessed 29 August 2010].
Landes, D. S. (1969) The Unbound Prometheus: Technological change and industrial development in Western Europe from 1750 to the present. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
McLaughlin, K. (2008) ‘Larry Ellison Is Sick Of ‘Cloud Computing’ Hype’ CRN. 26 September. [Online]. Available at <http://www.crn.com/blogs-op-ed/the-channel-wire/210604266/larry-ellison-is-sick-of-cloud-computing-hype.htm> [accessed 28 August 2010].
Saor, G. (2008) ‘Why Larry hates the Cloud , and my data trinity’ Gobán Saor’s blog. 04 October. Available at <http://blog.gobansaor.com/category/cloud/> [accessed 28 August 2010].
Schumpeter, J. A. (1939) Business Cycles: A theoretical, historical, and statistical analysis of the capitalist process. (2 vols.) London: McGraw-Hill.
Techpulse360 (2009) Why Larry Ellison hates Cloud computing. Available at <http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8UYa6gQC14o> [accessed 28 August 2010].
Whiting, R. (2008) ‘Oracle’s Cloud Computing Strategy Gets Clearer’ CRN. 23 September. [Online] Available at <http://www.crn.com/news/applications-os/210603480/oracles-cloud-computing-strategy-gets-clearer.htm> [accessed 28 August 2010].
Photo: Image used sourced from http://www.prosurfing.com