Articles

Created 2/21/1996
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Articles and Other Writings

Commitments:



Forthcoming:

J. Bradford De Long, "American Fiscal Policy in the Shadow of the Great Depression" (Berkeley, CA, 1995). (Forthcoming in Michael Bordo, Claudia Goldin, and Eugene White, eds., The Defining Moment: The Great Depression and the American Economy in the Twentieth Century, forthcoming.)

J. Bradford De Long, "It Doesn't Work: A Review of Vedder and Galloway's Out of Work: Unemployment and Government in Twentieth-Century America." (Forthcoming in Critical Review: An Interdisciplinary Journal of Politics and Society).

J. Bradford De Long and Carlos Ramirez, "Understanding America's Hesitant Steps Toward Financial Capitalism," Financial Institutions and Economic Growth: The Long Run Perspective. [.pdf version]

J. Bradford De Long and Richard Grossman, "The British Stock Market and British Economic Growth, 1870-1914," Financial Institutions and Economic Growth: The Long Run Perspective. [.pdf version]

J. Bradford De Long, "Review of Daniel Cohen's The Misfortunes of Prosperity "(forthcoming in the New England Economic Review).

J.Bradford De Long, "Review of Douglas Irwin's Against the Tide" (forthcoming in EH Disc: Economic History Discussions).

J. Bradford De Long, "Trade Policy and America's Standard of Living: An Historical Perspective," in Susan Collins, ed., Trade and the American Worker (Washington, DC: Brookings Institution, forthcoming).

J. Bradford De Long, "Cross-Country Variations in National Economic Growth Rates: The Role of 'Technology'", in Lynn Browne and Jeffrey Fuhrer, eds., Technology and Growth (Boston: Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, forthcoming).

J. Bradford De Long, "Renewing Economic Growth: Lessons from More than a Decade of Research." (Washington, DC: ACCF, forthcoming).

J. Bradford De Long, "Overstrong Against Thyself: War, the State, and Growth in Europe on the Eve of the Industrial Revolution" , in Mancur Olson, ed., The Not-So-Dismal Science: Development and the Political Economy of Institutions (forthcoming).

J. Bradford De Long, "America's Peacetime Inflation: The 1970s," in Christina Romer and David Romer. eds., Reducing Inflation: Motivation and Strategy (forthcoming).



1997:

 



1996:

J. Bradford De Long, "Is the Stock Market Overvalued?" Slate (December 21, 1996) <http://www.slate.com/gist/96-12-21/gist.asp>

J. Bradford De Long and David Levine, "A Deficit of Clear Thinking", Cal Monthly (August 1996).

J. Bradford De Long, "Keynesianism, Pennsylvania-Avenue Style: Some Economic Consequences of the 1946 Employment Act," Journal of Economic Perspectives (Summer 1996).

Christopher L. De Long, J. Bradford De Long, and Sherman Robinson, "NAFTA More Important After the Peso Crisis", The Los Angeles Times (July 25, 1996). [NAFTA and the Peso Crisis]

J. Bradford De Long, "A Positive Program for Better Economic Growth," Parliamentary Brief (June 1996).

J. Bradford De Long, Christopher L. De Long, and Sherman Robinson, "In Defense of Mexico's Rescue", Foreign Affairs (May/June 1996).

Carlos Ramirez and J. Bradford De Long, "Banker Influence and Business Economic Performance: Assessing the Impact of Depression-Era Financial Reforms," in Michael Bordo and Richard Sylla, eds., Anglo-American Financial Systems: Institution and Markets in the Twentieth Century (New York: Irwin, 1996), pp. 161-178.

Brad De Long, A Wired Child, Harpers 292:1750 (March 1996), p. 30.



1995:

J. Bradford De Long, "Können Finanzmärkte zu liquide sein?: Gefahr der Verstärkung von Kurseinbrüchen," Neue Zuercher Zeitung: Elektronische Borse Schweiz December 5, 1995, p. B 14. (English version: "Can a Financial Market Be Too Liquid and Too Efficient?" (Berkeley, CA, 1995).)

J. Bradford De Long and David Levine, "Not a Capital Idea," The San Francisco Chronicle December 5, 1995.

J. Bradford De Long and David Levine, "Welfare Reform that Makes Poor Kids Poorer Will Never Pay Off," The Los Angeles Times October 15, 1995. (Adobe .pdf version.)

J. Bradford De Long, "Ontological Breakdown, or, Pretending to Be a Help System", American Art 9:3 (Fall 1995), pp. 2-5 (edited version).

J. Bradford De Long, "Ontological Breakdown, or, Pretending to Be a Help System", in Adam Engst et al., eds., TidBITS #291, August 21, 1995 (INTERNET: http://www.dartmouth.edu/ pages/ TidBITS/ TidBITS.html).



1994:

J. Bradford De Long and Lawrence H. Summers, "How Strongly Do Developing Countries Benefit from Equipment Investment?" Journal of Monetary Economics (1994).

J. Bradford De Long and Lawrence H. Summers, "Equipment Investment and Economic Growth: Reply," Quarterly Journal of Economics 109:3 (August 1994), pp. 803-807.

J. Bradford De Long and Lawrence H. Summers, "How Robust Is the Growth-Machinery Nexus?" in Mario Baldassari, Luigi Paganetto, and Edmund Phelps, eds., International Differences in Growth Rates: Market Globalization and Economic Areas (New York: St. Martin's Press, 1994; in English)



1993:

J. Bradford De Long and Barry Eichengreen (1993), "The Marshall Plan: History's Most Successful Structural Adjustment Programme," in Rüdiger Dornbusch, Wilhelm Nölling, and Richard Layard, eds., Postwar Economic Reconstruction and Lessons for the East Today (Cambridge, MA: M.I.T. Press, 1993), pp. 189-230. (Earlier version issued as HIER working paper no. 1576, October 1991.)

J. Bradford De Long, "Very Long-Run Economic Growth, ca. 1870-1990," in Horst Siebert, ed., Economic Growth in the World Economy (Kiel: Institute for World Economics, 1993).

J. Bradford De Long and Andrei Shleifer, "Princes and Merchants: City Growth Before the Industrial Revolution," Journal of Law and Economics 36 (October 1993), pp. 671-702.

Robert B. Barsky and J. Bradford De Long, "Why Does the Stock Market Fluctuate?" Quarterly Journal of Economics 108: 2 (May 1993), pp. 291-312. (Earlier version issued as National Bureau of Economic Research [NBER] working paper no. 3995, February 1992.)

J. Bradford De Long and Barry Eichengreen, "The Marshall Plan as a Structural Adjustment Programme," in Rüdiger Dornbusch, Wilhelm Nölling, and Richard Layard, eds., Postwar Economic Reconstruction: Lessons for Eastern Europe (London: Anglo-German Foundation for the Study of Industrial Society, 1993). (Earlier version issued as NBER working paper no. 3899, November 1991; and as Centre for Economic Policy Research [CEPR] discussion paper no. 634, November 1991.)

J. Bradford De Long and Lawrence H. Summers, "Macroeconomic Policy and Long-Run Growth," in Policies for Long-Run Economic Growth (Kansas City: Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, 1993.), pp. 93-128.

J. Bradford De Long and Lawrence H. Summers, "Macroeconomic Policy and Long-Run Growth," Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City Quarterly Review (1993).

J. Bradford De Long, The Investment Tax Credit and Economic Growth (Washington, D.C.: American Council for Capital Formation, 1993).



1992:

J. Bradford De Long and Lawrence H. Summers, "Quanto è Forte il Legame tra Crescita e Meccanizzazione?" Rivista di Politica Economica (November 1992).

J. Bradford De Long and Lawrence H. Summers, "How Robust Is the Growth-Machinery Nexus?" Rivista di Politica Economica (November 1992).

J. Bradford De Long and Lawrence H. Summers, "Equipment Investment and Economic Growth: How Robust Is the Nexus?" Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (Fall 1992).

J. Bradford De Long, "J. P. Morgan and His Money Trust," Wilson Quarterly 16:4 (Fall 1992), pp. 16-30.

J. Bradford De Long, "Machinery Investment as a Key to American Economic Growth," in Mark Bloomfield, Margo Thorning, and Charls Walker, eds., Tools for American Workers (Washington, DC: American Council for Capital Formation, 1992). (Earlier version issued as Harvard Institute of Economic Research [HIER] working paper no. 1588, April 1992.)

J. Bradford De Long, "Bull and Bear Markets," in John Eatwell, Murray Milgate, and Peter Newman, eds, New Palgrave Dictionary of Money and Finance (London: Macmillan, 1992).

J. Bradford De Long, "Money Trust," in John Eatwell, Murray Milgate, and Peter Newman, eds, New Palgrave Dictionary of Money and Finance (London: Macmillan, 1992).

J. Bradford De Long, "Noise Trading," in John Eatwell, Murray Milgate, and Peter Newman, eds, New Palgrave Dictionary of Money and Finance (London: Macmillan, 1992).

J. Bradford De Long, "Growth, Industrialization, and Finance," NBER Reporter (Fall 1992), pp. 5-11.

J. Bradford De Long and Barry J. Eichengreen, "Der Marshall-Plan--ein Strukturhilfeprogramm," in Rüdiger Dornbusch, Wilhelm Nölling, and Richard Layard, eds., Der Wiederaufbau Deutschlands nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg--Lehren für Osteuropa, no. 10 of Hamburger Beiträge zur Wirtschafts- und Währungspolitik in Europa (Hamburg: 1992).

J. Bradford De Long and Kevin Lang, "Are All Economic Hypotheses False?" Journal of Political Economy 100:6 (December 1992), pp. 1257-72.

J. Bradford De Long, "Productivity and Machinery Investment: A Long Run Look 1870-1980," Journal of Economic History 53: 2 (June 1992), 307-24. (Earlier version issued as NBER working paper no. 3903, November 1991.)

J. Bradford De Long and Andrei Shleifer, "Closed End Fund Discounts: A Yardstick of Small-Investor Sentiment," Journal of Portfolio Management 18:2 (Winter 1992), pp. 46-53.



1991:

J. Bradford De Long, "Did J. P. Morgan's Men Add Value?: An Economist's Perspective on Financial Capitalism," in Peter Temin, ed., Inside the Business Enterprise: Historical Perspectives on the Use of Information (Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press for NBER, 1991), pp. 205-36. Earlier versions issued as NBER working paper no. 3426, August 1990, and as HIER working paper no. 1554, July 1991).

J. Bradford De Long, "The Great American Universal Banking Experiment," International Economy 5:1 (January/February 1991), pp. 68-71.

J. Bradford De Long and Andrei Shleifer, "The Stock Market Bubble of 1929: Evidence from Closed-End Funds," Journal of Economic History 52: 3 (September 1991), pp. 675-700. (Earlier version issued as NBER working paper no. 3523, December 1990.)

Robert B. Barsky and J. Bradford De Long, "Forecasting Pre-World War I Inflation: The Fisher Effect and the Gold Standard," Quarterly Journal of Economics 106: 3 (August 1991) , pp. 815-36. (Earlier versions issued as NBER working paper no. 2784, December 1988, and HIER working paper no. 1497, July 1990.)

J. Bradford De Long and Lawrence H. Summers, "Equipment Investment and Economic Growth," Quarterly Journal of Economics 106: 2 (May 1991), pp. 445-502. (Earlier version issued as NBER working paper no. 3515, November 1990.)

J. Bradford De Long, "Depressions," in Eric Foner and John A. Garraty, eds., Readers' Guide to American History (Boston, MA: Houghton-Mifflin Company, 1991). (Earlier version issued as HIER working paper no. 1499, July 1990.)

J. Bradford De Long, Andrei Shleifer, Lawrence H. Summers, and Robert J. Waldmann, "The Survival of Noise Traders in Financial Markets," Journal of Business 64: 1 (January 1991), pp. 1-20. (Earlier version issued as NBER working paper no. 2715, September 1988.)



1990:

J. Bradford De Long, Andrei Shleifer, Lawrence H. Summers, and Robert J. Waldmann, "Noise Trader Risk in Financial Markets," Journal of Political Economy 98: 4 (August 1990), pp. 703-738. (Earlier versions issued as HIER working paper no. 1416, December 1988, and as NBER working paper no. 2395, October 1987, and HIER working paper no. 1348, November 1987, under the title of "The Economic Consequences of Noise Traders"; reprinted in Richard H. Thaler, ed., Advances in Behavioral Finance (New York: Russell Sage Foundation, 1993).)

J. Bradford De Long, Andrei Shleifer, Lawrence H. Summers, and Robert J. Waldmann, "Positive-Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," Journal of Finance 45: 2 (June 1990), pp. 374-397. (Earlier version issued as NBER working paper no. 2880, March 1989.)

Robert B. Barsky and J. Bradford De Long, "Bull and Bear Markets in the Twentieth Century," Journal of Economic History 50: 2 (June 1990), pp. 1-17. (Earlier version issued as NBER working paper no. 3171, November 1989.)

J. Bradford De Long, "Facets of Interwar Unemployment: A Review Essay," Journal of Monetary Economics 25: 2 (March 1990), pp. 305-312. (Earlier version issued as HIER working paper no. 1500, July 1990).

J. Bradford De Long, "In Defense of Henry Simons' Credentials as a Classical Liberal," Cato Journal 9: 1 (Winter 1990), pp. 105-122. (Earlier version issued as HIER working paper no. 1498, July 1990).

J. Bradford De Long and Lawrence H. Summers, "Price Level `Flexibility' and the Coming of the New Deal: A Response to Sumner," Cato Journal 9: 1 (Winter 1990), pp. 729-735.



1989:

J. Bradford De Long, "The `Protestant Ethic' Revisited: A Twentieth-Century Look," Fletcher Forum 13: 2 (Summer 1989), pp. 229-242.

J. Bradford De Long, "Nassau Senior's `Last Hour' and the `Advances' Conception of Capital Revisited," History of Political Economy 21: 2 (Summer 1989), pp. 309-310.

J. Bradford De Long, Andrei Shleifer, Lawrence H. Summers, and Robert J. Waldmann, "The Size and Incidence of Losses from Noise Trading," Journal of Finance 44: 3 (July 1989), pp. 681-696. (NBER reprint no. 1330, December 1989; earlier version issued as NBER working paper no. 2875, March 1989.)



1988:

J. Bradford De Long, "Productivity Growth, Convergence, and Welfare: Comment," American Economic Review 78: 5 (December 1988), pp. 1138-1154.

J. Bradford De Long and Lawrence H. Summers, "How Does Macroeconomic Policy Matter?" Brookings Papers on Economic Activity 1988: 2 (Fall 1988), pp. 433-480. (Earlier version issued as HIER working paper no. 1418, December 1988.)

J. Bradford De Long and Lawrence H. Summers, "Is Increased Price Flexibility Stabilizing?: Reply," American Economic Review 78: 1 (March 1988), pp. 273-276.



1987:

 



1986:

J. Bradford De Long and Lawrence H. Summers, "Is Increased Price Flexibility Stabilizing?" American Economic Review 76: 5 (December 1986), pp. 1031-1044. (NBER reprint no. 0817, January 1987; earlier versions issued as NBER working paper no. 1686, August 1985, and as HIER working paper no. 1174, July 1985.)

J. Bradford De Long, "Senior's `Last Hour': A Suggested Resolution of a Famous Blunder," History of Political Economy 18: 2 (Summer 1986), pp. 325-333.

J. Bradford De Long and Lawrence H. Summers, "The Changing Cyclical Variability of Economic Activity in the United States," in Robert J. Gordon, ed., The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change (Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press for the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1986), pp. 679-719. (NBER reprint no. 0781, November 1986; earlier versions issued as NBER working paper no. 1450, September 1984, and as HIER working paper no. 1077, August 1984.)

J. Bradford De Long and Lawrence H. Summers, "A Comment on John Taylor's `Improvements in Macroeconomic Stability: The Role of Wages and Prices'," in Robert J. Gordon, ed., The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change (Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press for the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1986), pp. 667-675.

J. Bradford De Long and Lawrence H. Summers, "Are Business Cycles Symmetrical?" in Robert J. Gordon, ed., The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change (Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press for the National Bureau of Economic Research, 1986), pp. 166-178. (NBER reprint no. 0780, November 1986; earlier versions issued as NBER working paper no. 1444, September 1984, and as HIER working paper no. 1076, August 1984.)



Unpublished Articles

J. Bradford De Long, "Low Marx: Eric Hobsbawm's Age of Extremes" (Berkeley, CA, 1995).

J. Bradford De Long, " Late Nineteenth-Century Tariffs and American Economic Growth" (Berkeley, CA, 1995). (For the 1995 Economic History Association meetings; also available in Adobe .pdf format.)

J. Bradford De Long and Richard Grossman, "Excess Volatility on the London Stock Market, 1870-1990" (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Department of Economics, 1992).

J. Bradford De Long and Marco Becht, "`Excess Volatility' in the German Stock Market, 1876-1990" (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Department of Economics, 1991). (Issued as NBER working paper 4054, May 1992.) (Appendix.)

J. Bradford De Long, "`Liquidation' Cycles: Old-Fashioned Real Business Cycle Theory and the Great Depression" (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Department of Economics, 1990).Robert J. Waldmann and

J. Bradford De Long, "Interpreting Procyclical Productivity Movements: Evidence from a Cross-Nation Cross-Industry Panel" (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Department of Economics, 1990). (Issued as HIER working paper 1495, July 1990.)

J. Bradford De Long and Lawrence H. Summers, "On the Existence and Interpretation of a `Unit Root' in U.S. Real GDP" (Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Department of Economics, 1989).



Unpublished Comments

J. Bradford De Long, "A Decade of the 'New Growth Economics': A Comment on Xavier Sala-i-Martin, 'I Just Ran Two Million Regressions'" (Berkeley, CA, 1996).

J. Bradford De Long, "Comments on Chari, Christiano, and Eichenbaum, 'Expectational Traps and Discretion'" (Berkeley, CA, 1996).

J. Bradford De Long, "Comment on Peter Temin's 'The "Koreaboom" in West Germany: Fact or Fiction?" (Berkeley, CA 1995). Given at the fall 1995 NBER Workshop on Macroeconomic History. Adobe .pdf version.

J. Bradford De Long, "Keynesianism in One Country?" (Berkeley, CA 1996). Was to be given at an Economic Policy Institute conference on globalization.

J. Bradford De Long, "Thoughts on Globalization"

J. Bradford De Long, "Trade and American Business". Given at the World Affairs Council of Northern California's March 13, 1996 panel discussion on U.S. Trade and Economic Policy

J. Bradford De Long, "What Will the Stock Market Do?"



Unpublished Op-Eds

J. Bradford De Long and David Levine, "Doleful Deficit News: What Jack Kemp Means for America's Economy"

"Welfare Reform Is Expensive: How the Welfare Reform Debate Shows that Our Political System Is Broken" by Brad De Long and David Levine

Chris De Long, Brad De Long, and Sherman Robinson, "Resolving the Peso Crisis: Rescuing the Peso Was a Good Idea"

Chris De Long, Brad De Long, and Sherman Robinson, "NAFTA and Jobs: Remember the "Giant Sucking Sound"?"

J. Bradford De Long and Ann Marie Marciarille, "First Lessons from Kindergarten" (Berkeley, CA, 1995).

J. Bradford De Long and David Levine, "Republican Tax Cuts: Bad Economic Policy, Worse Social Policy" (Berkeley, CA, 1995).



Projects:

J. Bradford De Long, "What Is 'Full Employment' and How Do We Get There?"

A. Michael Froomkin and J. Bradford De Long, "The Next Economy"

Claudia Goldin and J. Bradford De Long, "Billionaires"

J. Bradford De Long, Slouching Towards Utopia: The Economic History of the Twentieth Century (Berkeley, CA, uncompleted ms. 1996).

J. Bradford De Long, "The Questions Stay the Same But the Answers Change: The Value of the Dollar, the Budget Deficit, and the Current Account" (Berkeley, CA, 1995).



Links to:


Disclaimers: Format and Fair Use:

Format: Note, first, that many of the documents above are not directly viewable text, but are Acrobat .pdf files which require the "Acrobat Reader" program, which you can download for free from Adobe, its--I was going to say "manufacturer," but somehow that seems the wrong word. What do you call the entity that makes something available for you to copy using electronic means?

The use of .pdf files may be a mistake: but .pdf virtual print drivers are better than programs that convert to .html; and I hope that by early 1996 .pdf reader plug-ins will be standard in nearly all WWW browsers.

Fair Use: Second, note that from my perspective that if you download and view one of the following, I am providing the same service as if I let you borrow something itout of the stack of books and journals to which I have contributed. Advantages on my side are (a) no hassle in sending it to you, and (b) no hassle in getting you to return it--"return" is automatically performed when you clean up your /temporary directory.

The advantage on your side is that you get it quickly. However, if you want to permanently keep a copy of anything you download from the items below, please be guided by the standard "fair use" principles.

Third, please recognize that the computer files archived below are in many cases not identical to the published works, but are somewhat earlier drafts of works that were later published.

Copyright to the published versions is held by:

the University of Chicago Press, History of Political Economy, the American Economic Review, the Brookings Institution, the Journal of Finance, the Fletcher Forum, the Cato Institute, the Journal of Monetary Economics, the Journal of Economic History, the Journal of Political Economy, the Houghton-Mifflin Company, the Journal of Business, the Quarterly Journal of Economics, International Economy, the Journal of Portfolio Management, the Landeszentralbank Hamburg, the National Bureau of Economic Research, the Macmillan Company, the Smithsonian Institution, the American Council for Capital Formation, the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, the Anglo-German Foundation for the Study of Industrial Society, the Kiel Institute for World Economic Research, the Journal of Law and Economics, the MIT Press, St. Martin's Press, TidBITS, American Art, the San Francisco Chronicle, the Los Angeles Times, the Neue Zuercher Zeitung, Irwin, Harpers, Foreign Affairs, Parliamentary Brief, the Journal of Economic Perspectives, and Slate.

 


Daughter Pages:

|America's Peacetime Inflation|
|Closed-End Mutual Funds|
|Overstrong Against Thyself|
|Growth and Technology|
|American Growth and the Tariff (Economic History Assn. Version)|
|
Low Marx: A Critical Review of Hobsbawm's Age of Extremes|
|Developing Countries and Equipment Investment|
|American Growth and the Tariff (Brookings Version)|
|The 1946 Employment Act|
|The Fiscal Revolution|
|The Mexican Peso Crisis|


Articles

Created 2/21/1996
Go to
Brad De Long's Home Page


Associate Professor of Economics Brad De Long, 601 Evans
University of California at Berkeley; Berkeley, CA 94720-3880
(510) 643-4027 phone (510) 642-6615 fax
delong@econ.berkeley.edu
http://econ161.berkeley.edu/