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Republicans and the Minority Vote by Everett Carll Ladd Thursday, December 10, 1998 Comments: 88 posts |
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The United States once again is experiencing a great wave of immigration that is changing its ethnic makeup and promising further political change. The main development: the population growth among Hispanics and Asians. In 1998, these two groups and blacks combined to total 18% of the electorate, according to the exit poll taken by Voter News Service (VNS) on Election Day. These contemporary shifts in ethnic background obviously matter to the parties. But how we respond politically to the emergent ethnic makeup and its new inter-group tensions carries implications that reach far beyond the parties' electoral strength. When ethnic-based polarization occurs in voting, it is likely to cause polarization in the society at large. In a pluralistic nation like ours, all major parties must compete effectively among all the principal groups to maintain a robust democracy. The parties need not be of equal strength everywhere, but they do need to be "in the game" everywhere. A modest Republican gain? The United States has had great success in this area. Low-income Americans are more Democratic than those with high incomes, for example, but both parties have significant support in each income group. The same is true when we look at most of the other major demographic categories -- those defined by education, gender, region, religious denomination, etc. Blacks are the one major exception. They are the only ethnic group brought to this country against its will and then subjected to a gross denial of equality. And for nearly 40 years now, they have been the only big group where one party, the Democratic Party, has been dominant. Now there are signs of a modest revival of party competition among blacks. If established, it would benefit both parties and America's social health. Never has a political party experienced so profound a shift in any social group as the GOP has among blacks. The party of Lincoln and the one that finally ended slavery, the Republicans gained after the Civil War the backing of most blacks not disenfranchised by Southern, Democrat-controlled state governments. Post-election Gallup surveys show that Republican presidential candidates won some 30% of the black vote in all presidential elections from 1936 through 1960. Not until the party's catastrophic errors of the 1960s -- notably in Barry Goldwater's 1964 presidential campaign -- was it virtually abandoned by black America. Many Republican leaders have regretted this modern-day debacle and sought remedies, but there was scant sign of even a slight Republican revival until now. Admittedly, recent readings detect only a faint Republican pulse. Nonetheless, they encourage those who think it is essential that the GOP regain its competitiveness. A Nov. 3 exit poll by Voter News Service indicated that Republican congressional candidates won a substantial vote among young blacks (ages 18 to 29). A fifth of young blacks backed a Republican for Congress. In 1996, Republican congressional candidates did better among all age groups of black voters than in any previous congressional election of the past 40 years. (See Chart 1.)
At the gubernatorial level, Republican stirrings have been more impressive. In 1998, according to VNS statewide exit polls, Republican incumbent Mike Huckabee (AR) won 48% of the black vote. John Rowland (CT) won 45% in Connecticut, indicating that given certain conditions, the popularity of a moderate conservative can now reach across racial lines. In Michigan, John Engler captured 27% of the black vote, the same percentage George W. Bush won in Texas. (See Chart 2.) Gubernatorial Vote (percentage Republican) of African Americans, Hispanic Americans, and Non-Hispanic Whites, in Six States, 1998.
Battle for the Hispanic vote It may seem strange to consider percentages in the 20-point range as encouraging. But the erosion of the Republican base in black America has been so profound, and wrought by such forceful political experience, that a large and rapid revival would be inconceivable. What's more, to be competitive within a social group, a party needs only 25% backing. We know from previous experience with group realignments that they begin first with voting for more visible offices and surface last in party identification. Yet for all its anemic condition, the Republican position in party identification among young blacks is clearly better than among those who came into the electorate earlier. (See Chart 3.) Party Identification of African Americans and Hispanics, By Age
In contrast to their total collapse among black voters, Republicans never dropped out of competition among Hispanics. In exit polls taken since 1980, GOP congressional vote percentages among Hispanics have ranged from a low in the mid-20s to a high in the upper-30s. (See Chart 4.) Contrary to much speculation that the GOP's stance on immigration has undermined its position among Hispanics, Republican congressional totals in 1994 (39%) and 1998 (37%) are the highest since exit polling began. Congressional Vote of Hispanic Americans, 1980-1998
Gubernatorial voting last Nov. 3 showed that Hispanics remain open to persuasion by both major parties. Republican Jeb Bush won 61% of the Hispanic vote in Florida, and his brother, George W., 49% in Texas. Republicans Jane Dee Howell (AZ) and Gary E. Johnson (NM), meanwhile, gained 40% and 33%, respectively. The Democrats' lead over Republicans in party identification is large among Hispanics -- 22% in 1998, according to the findings of 21 Gallup polls conducted for USA Today and CNN. (Each of these surveys asked party identification and ethnicity; combining them gave a sample big enough for reliable estimates. See Chart 5.) Still, only 43% of Hispanics identified as Democrats, just 8% more than the party's total among all adults. Data on party identification by age also suggest that the GOP does better among younger Hispanics than among those who enter the electorate earlier. (See Chart 3.) Closing the ethnic divide Republicans have a clear majority among non-Hispanic whites. Even in 1992 and 1996, George Bush and Bob Dole outdistanced President Clinton in the 80%-plus of the electorate classified as non-Hispanic whites. Republicans' margins over Democrats have been at least 10% in the last three House elections. Republicans now lead in party identification among whites other than those of Hispanic background. (See Chart 5.) Party Identification of African Americans, Hispanic Americans, and Non-Hispanic Whites, 1998
These areas of strength have brought the party to parity with Democrats overall. But Republicans' weakness among blacks, and their relative weakness among Hispanics, leave them lacking the inclusiveness a great democratic party requires, and that it must have to hold a firm majority. It also leaves the country open to further ethnic polarization and to the possibility that such polarization could get worse. Fortunately, recent trends offer a glimmer of hope that the GOP can regain competitive status among blacks and move toward parity among Hispanics. Making this happen offers Republican leaders a formidable challenge -- and a great opportunity. Everett Carll Ladd is a professor of political science and president of the Roper Center for Public Opinion Research at the University of Connecticut. The views expressed here are his own and not the center's. He is also a contributing editor of IntellectualCapital.com.
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Do you think the GOP will continue to make inroads among African Americans and Hispanics? Do they need to to win consistently? Do you agree with Ladd that one-party minorities are bad for America?
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