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Jim's predictions for the week!!

DISCLAIMER:These weekly predictions are just for fun(although I may be right from time to time) DISCLAIMER:I am not a meteorologist,I check satellite,Models & upper air flows to make my decisions. Sometimes I may notice something the models do not pick up. For official advisories go to the National hurricane center.
Updated every Monday.(Times may vary).
Accuracy basis per week=0%=a storm forms a day or two after saying no development or completely off on every aspect of current system for the week---30%= may get 1 thing right such as strength, but way wrong on direction & or time of landfall.---50%= after predicting no development a storm forms on the 5th day of period or I am right on strength & off on movement or visa versa---70%=after predicting no development a storm forms on 6th day of forecast or everything right except strength & or a bit off of movement of system.---100%= I predict no development & nothing happens or I predict everything pretty accurate except for just off on movement give or take 100 miles off or so..
WEEK#1=100%-----#2=100%------#3=100%------#4=50%------#5=100%=======for this year so far=90.00% accuracy
Season accuracy after completion of the 2001 Hurricane season 62.77%
Season accuracy after the 2002 Hurricane season 75.20%
(For the week of July7th through July 13th)Last week I stated that we would see no T-Storm Claudette develop in the Atlantic basin. I mentioned too much dry air east of the Antilles & unfavorable conditions, so 100% for last week is in order. Into the weekend we saw a system trying to organize east of the Islands, but with conditions not favorable the system did not develop. Lets get on with this week & see what is out there. Lets start with the system mentioned above over the Antilles & what it's future holds. Recon aircraft did not find a closed low level circulation & I was not surprised. The system is moving too fast & still has a very small conopy of moisture to work with. I also have been mentioning in chat & the message boards about an upper low to it's NW causing problems. These systems are moving in tandem & as long as they are following each other development cannot be expected. I expect this system to move west into the western caribbean & be in a similar situation as the wave that became Bill. This system will be at the southern end of the upper low to its NW & will flare up in the western Caribbean but I think the difference this time is that it will move into central America & possibly into the East Pacific and possibly develop over there. The global models do not show much developing this week other than the MRF which shows a low of some sort near the Leeward Islands by weeks end. As I stated last week dry air remains in place out there & I do not see TS Claudette forming with these conditions. Yes we could see a system flirting with TD status lie this last system or even become a TD but it is July & in July things generally are not favorable too often. High pressure is expected to remain moderate to strong over the Bahamas & Gulf so I am not looking for anything in these areas this week. I will take the conservative approach which has worked thus far. Overall I expect no development of Claudette this week.


I had my annual Hurricane season Kick-off show & made my predictions for landfalling Hurricanes in the Atlantic basin for 2003 and can be heard in 2 parts Part 1 ..and..Part2(real player needed). The following are all "my opinion" based on a simple formula of Hurricane hits on each city from the past, based on the amount of named storms during the season when they were directly hit. EXAMPLE an Island hit during seasons of 12-14-8-13-9 named storms =56 divided by 5 seasons= 11.2 named storms when this island gets hit by a Hurricane. Based on expert opinions of 12 to 14 named storms for this season, the following cities & Islands could be affected based on climatology.

VERY HIGH THREAT.........Belize city, Sable Isl-NS, St Pierre-NF, Savanna la mar-Jamaica, Punta Allen-Mexico, Mobile-AL,Melbourne-FL, Vero bch-FL, Cape cod-MA, Mississippi coast, Elizabeth city-NC, Brownsville-TX, Norfolk-VA, Eleuthera isl, Tampico-MX,
HIGH THREAT ..........Antigua, Abaco isl, Acklins isl, Nuevitas-CUBA, Vera cruz-MX, Boca raton-FL, Boynton bch-FL, Delray bch-FL, Ft Walton -FL, Destin-FL, Jacksonville-FL, La Pesca-MX,
MODERATE THREAT..........Dominica, Guadeloupe, St Thomas - st JohnVl, Cat Isl, Great Exuma, San Salvador isl, Halifax-NS, Daytona-FL, Deerfield bch-FL, Ft Laud-FL, Ft Pierce-FL, Stuart-FL, Charleston-SC,
OVERDUE MENTIONS ts or h.............Cozumel-MX, Port arthur-TX, Cameron-LA, Fernandina bch-FL, Beaufort-SC
If you have a comment or question about my predictions or about hurricanes,post it here

During this week back in?

MODELS / PREDICTIONS

24 hour AVN model
current upper level winds
48 hour atlantic AVN model
upper level winds in 48 hrs
MRF model up to 11days
Current & past winds at all levels
Animated versions of avn,ecmwf,gfdl,nogaps,ukmet
FSU Super Ensemble Forecast
Gary Gray's Trantech Model discussion
Crown Weather services Graphical model layouts
See what Barometer Bob has to say
BOUY & SHIP DATA

Gulf of Mexico ship & buoy data
Caribbean ship & buoy data
Atlantic Ocean ship & buoy data (west of 60)
Atlantic ocean ship & buoy data (35W to 60W)
Atlantic ocean ship & buoy data (East of 35)
(MAP)Buoy data


SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES

sea surface temperatures(global daily)
Easier to read water temp maps from TPC(although not updated as often as above link)
Detailed water temps for gulf,west atlantic & northern caribbean sea

From university of Miami a detailed water temp map from Cuba north to Rhode Island
Extremely detailed Gulf of Mexico water temps by Rutgers
TIDES & SATELLITE LOOPS

Expected high tides for areas affected by tropical systems listed in alphabetical order
Color enhanced vapor loop
moving vapor loops from CIMSS


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