Lifespan Extension Issues

Copyright © 1994, 1996, 1999, 2000 by Robert Bradbury

Last updated: January 22, 2002
Original Version: sometime in 1994

Contents


What is the maximum lifespan?

At the current time there is general agreement that the maximum lifespan for humans is around 120 years (See Longevity Records). By ~2015 the limit on maximum human lifespan will be either eliminated or it will be very clear what needs to be done to eliminate it.  The reasons for this are discussed below.

Rapid growth of human knowledge

Human knowledge, especially medical knowledge now doubles every 5 years (or less). Since this results in an exponential increase in our knowledge while our aging rate is linear (up until about the last 10% of our lifespan) a point in time will come when we understand how and why we age faster than we are aging.

Complete Genetic Programs Known

Genomes Are Less Complex than Other Systems Aging is Not Complex Gene Therapies Will Enable Correcting the Program Replacement Tissues and Organs will be Developed Aging will be THE Major Focus for Research Funds These facts and projections point toward a rapid understanding of the aging process and an application of technologies to significantly extend lifespan. These technologies will be developed and applied faster than we age. The net result will be an unlimited maximum lifespan. Will people live forever? Not as biological machines. The maximum average lifespan will be determined by the rate of accidents which result in damage to the brain which is unrepairable. Depending on the accident rates for fires, earthquakes, floods, severe car/train/plane crashes, etc. the average lifespan will be more than 100 years.* 

Overpopulation

One immediate response of people when the idea of lifespan extension is proposed is, "What about overpopulation?". This response is a result of incomplete education of the general public by the mass media. Generally speaking there is not an overpopulation problem in the developed countries (e.g. the U.S.A. and Europe). At the current time the affluent countries are all very close to replacement population rates (i.e. 2 children per 2 adults). Some countries in Europe and Japan have birth rates less than replacement requirements and the governments have begun incentive programs (usually tax credits) for people to have more children. The reason the populations in such countries may appear to be growing is due to immigration from less-developed or overpopulated countries. One of the most consistent findings of population research is that as a country reaches a certain level of affluence the population growth rate slows to around the replacement level. There are a number of factors involved in this reduction in population growth rates: The view of many experts in overpopulation at the current time is that once the standard of living in less-developed countries is raised and the health standards are improved to reduce the IMR and educational and economic opportunities for women will improve, the population growth rates will decrease to replacement levels.

Information about the recent United Nations International Conference on Population and Development is here.

Issues involving overpopulation often involve the issues of hunger. To solve overpopulation, solving hunger is an important requirement. An excellent source for information on Hunger is:

References for hunger related topics may be found at The Hunger Web and The Hunger Project .

Economic problems and consequences

There are obviously some big problems if the technologies for lifespan extension are made available to people receiving private or government pensions (social security). The funding for these plans is computed based on current life expectancies which have historically been underestimated. These expectations will become increasingly invalid as the technologies for lifespan extension are made available. At the current time we can see several possible solutions for this problem: Ultimately we think that if an individual knows lifespan is potentially unlimited, two possible philosophies will emerge. In one philosophy, individuals plan to work "forever" doing those things which interest them. In another, people will devote greater energy to developing the financial means to "retire" and occupy themselves with whatever pleasures of life they enjoy most. Retirement planning strategies in most affluent countries would allow a "work-span" of 50 years to generate sufficient resources to provide a comfortable lifestyle for an indefinite period of extended life.

As people will have much longer lifespans and more time to learn a variety of skills, their value and contributions to society should increase. As people save more to reach financial independence there should be increased capital accumulation in society resulting in lower capital costs for investments which increase productivity. These conditions will result in accelerated economic growth. As people's lifespans are extended there will be an increased emphasis on prevention of diseases and cancer through vaccinations and especially an emphasis on accident prevention which should decrease overall health care costs. Further changes may include the engineering of products to "last a lifetime" which might make them more expensive initially would result in lower costs over the lifetime of the product resulting in a decreased cost of living.

Depending on the investment by society, sometime within the next 50 years nanotechnology should develop and fundamentally shift the requirements for comfortable living within our society. Nanotechnology will do for everyday materials and products what semiconductor fabrication technology has done for the power and price of computer chips. It has been estimated that an automobile built with nanotechnology would cost less than $4.00.
 

What do you do with all those extra years without monetary concerns?

Read, write, travel, learn different cuisines, foreign languages, sports, develop new hobbies, design clever nanomachines, promote peace and above all be happy!
 

Other Sources for More Information



It is useful to note that in the 6 years since the original version of this document was written, my time estimates have not altered significantly. The Human Genome was largely complete significantly ahead of schedule (Y2000 vs. the original 2006 plan). The prospects for transplants from enginneered animals and/or laboratory grown organs has also accelerated. Reproducible cloning and the isolation human stem cells was the talk of the news in 1998. The only time estimate which was too short from the original document was the estimate for completing the Drosophila genome. It was completed ~1 year later than the original estimate!

Footnotes


References


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