[Aaddzz Advertisement]

Jim's predictions for the week!!

DISCLAIMER:These weekly predictions are just for fun(although I may be right from time to time) DISCLAIMER:I am not a meteorologist,I am not a forecaster,forecasters have degrees.I check satellite,Models & upper air flows to make my decisions ,basically throwing the dice. Sometimes I may notice something the forecast models do not pick up on. For official advisories and forecast's go to The National hurricane center.
Updated every Monday.(Times may vary).
Accuracy basis per week=0%=a storm forms a day or two after saying no development or completely off on every aspect of current system for the week & something else forms I did not predictor nothing forms & I predicted a named storm---30%= may get 1 thing right such as strength, but way wrong on direction & or time of landfall.---50%= after predicting no development a storm forms on the 5th day of period or I am right on strength & off on movement or visa versa---70%=after predicting no development a storm forms on 6th day of forecast or everything right except strength & or a bit off of movement of system.---100%= I predict no development & nothing happens or I predict everything pretty accurate except for just off on movement give or take 100 miles off or so..
WEEK#1=100%...#2=100%...#3=100% ...#4=100%...#5=100%....#6=100%....#7=100%....#8=100%...#9=60%.....For the year so far 95.55% accuracy
Season accuracy after completion of the 2001 Hurricane season 62.77%
Season accuracy after the 2002 Hurricane season 75.20%
Season accuracy after the 2003 Hurricane season 53.20%
(For the week of August 2nd through August 8th) Last week I stated that unfavorable conditions would persist & we would see no tropical storms develop. On the 6th day of my prediction period we had Tropical Storm Alex form SE of Charleston S Carolina. Using the grading system above would put this at the 60% range as the difficulty dramatically increases after day4. I also stated that the only possible chance for a depression to form would be in the East Atlantic but that I did not expect to see Alex this week. Watching 3 potential systems for last week & only 1 developing late in the period deserves a 60% grade for last week. For this week starting with Alex currently located SE of Charleston & slowly drifting N.E, is of main concern. Looking at model data & Satellite imagery tells me that Alex has a chance to become a Hurricane & I would not have thought that 24hrs ago. Water temps east of Hatteras can support a Hurricane & the structure of Alex has improved alot. I think Alex will reach minimal Hurricane strength after brushing the outer banks as a strong T-Storm & then quickly scoot out to sea becoming extratropical. Now I will focus on another system midway betweeen Africa & the Antilles. This system has good structure but has dry air in the environment out in front of it. The global models take this feature north of the Antilles,then head west briefly & then meander NW slowly in a weak state. I do agree with this scenario as the Bermuda high should be weak during this period when the system is NE of the Bahamas. Development is possible but I am not sold on it,but it will need to be watched. Next in line is a new wave that just emerged off of Africa with good convection. I always take the conservative approach unless it is the height of Hurricane season for east Atlantic systems. This could become T-Storm Bonnie by late week east of the Antilles & yet another strong wave that I think will be a player will come off of Africa Wednesday or Thursday. Conditions out there are favorable ,so either of these systems could become Bonnie while moving across the Atlantic. Could we see Charley as well this week? I am not banking on it but it could happen,so to wrap things up, I do not expect landfall for this week of any named storms. Look for Bonnie & possibly Charley moving east to west this week,happy Cape Verde season everybody!!

The following cities & Islands were picked before the 2003 season began by Jim Williams 1)Halix,Nova Scotia...2)Cozumel,Mexico....3)Brownsville,Texas...4)Oviedo,Dominican Republic....5)Elizabeth city,N.C. The picks below for 2004 are based on seasons of 14 or more named storms,cities & islands that get hit during active seasons of 10 or more named storms,Cities & Islands that are overdue or due for a T-Storm or Hurricane and areas hit by systems 2 or more years in a row.(NOTE:)if forecasters are wrong and we have way less than 14 named storms (10 or less),look out South Florida.If a Hurricane & or T-Storm comes within 60 Miles of any one of these picks this season,consider it a hit.

VERY HIGH THREAT.........Ft Walton bch to Pensacola, Cape Hatteras, North Carolina ,Acklins Island,Bahamas, Cozumel & Cancun ,Mexico, Cabo Corrientes,Cuba , St Johns,New Foundland ,
HIGH THREAT..........Tampico,Mexico , Abaco Island,Bahamas , Brownsville,Texas , Barbados , Dominica , Guadeloupe , St John,St Thomas ,Virgin Islands
MODERATE THREAT(Ticking timebombs,way overdue)............ St Lucia , Great Inagua , Long Island,Bahamas , Manzanillo,Cuba , Cedar Key,Fla ,Homossasa,Fla St Vincent ,
Overdue mentions T.S & HurricanesVero bch to Naples Fla(TS),Turks & Caicos (H),Cape sable ,NS (H),Baracoa ,Cuba (H),Jacmel ,Haiti (H & TS),Vera cruz,MX (TS),Puerto rico (TS),Port Charlotte,Fl(H & TS), Sarasota,Fl (H),Savannah,GA (H), Cameron LA (H & TS), New Orleans,LA (H), Beaufort SC (H & TS), Edisto, SC (H) , Hilton head Isl,SC (H), Myrtle bch,SC (H),Port Arthur,TX (TS)
If you have a comment or question about my predictions or about hurricanes,post it here

During this week back in?

MODELS / PREDICTIONS

24 hour AVN model
current upper level winds
48 hour atlantic AVN model
upper level winds in 48 hrs
MRF model up to 11days,SW Atl basin
MRF entire ATL basin
Current & past winds at all levels
Animated versions of avn,ecmwf,gfdl,nogaps,ukmet
Navy FNMOC WXMAP Nogaps
FSU Super Ensemble Forecast
Scatterometer surface winds
Gary Gray's Trantech Model discussion
Crown Weather services Graphical model layouts
BOUY & SHIP DATA

Gulf of Mexico ship & buoy data
Caribbean ship & buoy data
Atlantic Ocean ship & buoy data (west of 60)
Atlantic ocean ship & buoy data (35W to 60W)
Atlantic ocean ship & buoy data (East of 35)
(MAP)Buoy data


Get observations from Caribbean Islands & Mexico here
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES

sea surface temperatures(global daily)
Easier to read water temp maps from TPC(although not updated as often as above link)
Detailed water temps for gulf,west atlantic & northern caribbean sea

From university of Miami a detailed water temp map from Cuba north to Rhode Island
Extremely detailed Gulf of Mexico water temps by Rutgers
TIDES & SATELLITE LOOPS

Expected high tides for areas affected by tropical systems listed in alphabetical order
Color enhanced vapor loop
moving vapor loops from CIMSS


Home | About hurricanecity | Listen to the live weather broadcast's
Links | Advertise | Merchandise | Email