So many unknowns
I've created a formula to track how the election would turn out if it were held today.
With it, I feel I can reasonably interpret a myriad of polling data and come up with a composite picture
of where those polls say we stand. On the other hand, I've also included
predictions on this website
which are my personal opinion about the eventual outcome of the election on November 2. A multitude of
others are also engaged in this game of political foretelling, many with results that differ significantly from
my own. Some see a dramatic landslide in favor of Senator Kerry, while others adamantly assert that
President Bush will be on the topside of a landslide himself.
How can people with access to the same information hold to such strikingly differing viewpoints? More
importantly, who is right? This year, much more than in previous elections, the answer has to be "only
time will tell." There are so many new and uncharted variables affecting the outcome of the
election in ways that have yet to be measured. Some favor the President; others favor the challenger.
The net result of them all is to make it impossible to predict with any certainty, even within a broad
margin of error, who will win and by how much.
Here's a list of some of these unknowns as I see them and which candidate they could potentially favor.
Cell phones: A growing trend among younger Americans is to drop the traditional land line phone
and use cell phones exclusively. Polling firms do not usually call cell phone numbers when conducting their
surveys. Are the polls missing a vast supply of voters? If so, how do these voters feel about the
two candidates? It could be that their opinions differ from those who are polled. In fact, generally
speaking, this type of demographic does tend to lean Democratic. Potential advantage: Kerry
Soft support for Kerry vs. Deep hatred of Bush: Every election is just as much about turnout
as it is about message and personality. And turnout hinges most of the time on the level of support for
the candidate. In other words, if people are fired up about their man or woman, they're more likely to
get out and vote. Judging from that point of view, polling data seems to indicate a potential for Bush
to score a big win. Kerry's support is more often out of necessity than passion. So does this
factor translate to a Bush advantage? Not so fast. A brooding hatred for our President permeates the
left in this country as never before. This deep-seated emotion will serve to drive many to the polls
regardless of their level of support for Senator Kerry. It is unknown whether the apathy or hatred will
prevail among Kerry supporters. Potential advantage: Bush or Kerry
GOP GOTV vs. ACT and Moveon.org: The GOP has made enormous strides in its grassroots organization
since the last presidential election. The 72-hour task force has transformed Republican get-out-the-vote
efforts. I have held the opinion throughout this election cycle that these advances will be
a huge factor this year. For a generation, Democratic special
interests such as labor unions and African-American activist organizations have honed and developed a
magnificent turnout machine. Until 2002, this juggernaut was met by a lot of commercials and automated
phone calls from the GOP. The result was a consistent ground game advantage for the Democrats on
election day. All that changed in 2002. The Republican party finally realized that it would be
harder and harder to compete without fielding its own army of volunteers. The result: Election
night in 2002 was a very good night for me and my fellow GOPers. Did the GOP GOTV match the Democrats on
the street? It doesn't really matter. What matters is that it competed, and in competing
won the day. 2004 will be the first presidential election in which the GOP will actually compete in the
GOTV ground game. I believe this will be a tremendous advantage for President Bush. It could very well be the story
of the election. The only thing that might negate or diminish its effect is the millions upon millions
being poured into this race by Democratic 527's such as Americans Coming Together and Moveon.org. Their
activity this year is unparalleled in election history, as far as I know, and could serve as a counterweight
to the GOP's newfound GOTV strength. Potential advantage: Bush or Kerry
National Security: In 2001, this country was attacked like never before in our history; we are
now a nation at war. Regardless of how one feels about the war in Iraq, the global war on terror and the
potential of more deadly attacks on US soil heightens each voter's awareness of the dangers we face.
Whether consciously or subconsciously, this knowledge will influence us all as we decide for whom to vote.
A sitting President in a time of war is a formidable political force. Even Richard Nixon, presiding
over the very unpopular Viet Nam war, won in a landslide. Add to that the fact that the President is
polling some 20 points ahead of Senator Kerry in questions regarding national security and the war on terror,
and you can see a potentially devastating win for the incumbent. In the end, I don't know how much effect
this factor will have, but it could persuade many voters to pull the lever for Bush.
Potential advantage: Bush
Conservative Christians: It has been estimated that 4 million conservative Christians
who voted in the 1994 election stayed home in 2000. The drunk driving lightning bolt unleashed mere
days before the election made the difference to many Christians. If even half those voters had voted
last election, Bush would have won comfortably. I believe many of those bench-warmers are reconsidering
this time around. They will vote in greater numbers this year. Potential advantage: Bush
These factors blur the eventual outcome of the election. They cannot afford either camp any sense of
tranquility about their guy's chances. I for one am not settled at all that Bush has this election in the
bag. That said, my gut tells me a strong, decisive, morally upright leader like President Bush will triumph
in the end over an extremely liberal, former anti-war activist Senator from Massachusetts. That's why,
13 days from the election, I'm standing by my predictions, regardless of what the polls or even my projections
say. On November 3rd, I'll either be stuffing myself with a certain species of black bird, or trying
my best not to gloat...only time will tell.
posted by Scott Elliott at 1:05pm 10/20/04
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October 18, 2004
Quote of the day week month ELECTION!
This is what it's all about this year, folks...
Vladimir Putin:
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I consider the activities of terrorists in Iraq are not as much aimed at coalition forces but more personally
against President Bush. International terrorism has as its goal to prevent the election of President
Bush to a second term. If they achieve that goal, then that will give international terrorism a new
impulse and extra power. (emphasis added)
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And that's from a foreign leader opposed to the Iraq war, not some GOP talking head. I can't
imagine a more relevant and weighty statement for the American voter to consider as we cast our votes 15
days from now.
Hat tip: PoliPundit
Update: Boy, did I get a lot of response to this post! So much, in fact, that I feel it
necessary to post a follow-up comment. This is in no way an endorsement of Putin or his policies.
It is simply an illustration of an international leader who is against our action in Iraq who nevertheless
understands this aspect of the War on Terror - the terrorists would rather fight against a United States led
by John Kerry than one led by George W. Bush.
posted by Scott Elliott at 5:40pm 10/18/04
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October 17, 2004
Polling data update
The conventions are done; the debates are over. All we have left now are a few
news cycles, thousands of political ads, the occasional October surprise, and 16 days until election day.
We've entered the home stretch of this election season, and the race appears to be a nailbiter once again.
This week's Election Projection gives a slight edge to President Bush.
He leads the all-important electoral vote contest 274-264 over Senator Kerry and holds a scant 0.4%
popular vote advantage, 49.3% - 48.9%.
It is interesting the way the polls are all over the board this week. On the one hand, a Democracy
Corps poll has Kerry up by 3 points. On the other hand, Gallup released a poll today giving Bush an 8
point lead. Add to that Zogby's newfangled state polls and the increased use of cell phones and the job
of prognosticating an election result really gets tough. As many have said before, this just illustrates
again that the only poll that matters is the one on November 2.
Since I began tracking these projections in August, 2003, the President's most impressive numbers have been
477 electoral votes and a 17.60% margin seen on the 12th of January, 2004. His worst electoral vote total
was 181 on September 5, 2003. May 26, 2004 saw Mr. Bush's worst percentage deficit so far. That
update projected him to lose by 7.6%.
posted by Scott Elliott at 11:10pm 10/17/04
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October 13, 2004
A no-show for the third debate
The Blogging Caesar will not be live-blogging the third debate tonight. Some kind
of stomach something got a hold of me last night and has left me feeling pretty rotten today. If I feel
up to it, I'll watch the debate and post a reaction afterwards, but there's no way I'll be able to post anything
during the debate.
Some of you may have noticed that the Daily Projection Update offer has been removed from the website.
That's because I'm gearing up for the final two weeks of the campaign. When I feel better, I'm going
to post an updated offer. I'll be signing people up to receive the final two weeks of the Daily Projection
Update for only $20! If you want to go ahead and sign up, feel free to click on the PayPal button
at the top of this page and send in your $20 today. Those who do will receive the final 10
installments of the Daily Projection Update beginning next Tuesday, October 19 and continuing through Saturday,
October 30.
Update: I missed the debate last night. I just wasn't feeling good enough to watch.
So, there will be no reactions from me today. However, I encourage you to check out the links in my
sidebar to the left. I sure most of those guys are bursting with reactions!
Update2: I've reposted the Daily Projection Update offer at the reduced rate...y'all sign up, ya
hear?
posted by Scott Elliott at 5:50pm 10/13/04
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October 12, 2004
Happy birthday, Dad!
Larry Thomas Elliott would have been 61 today.
My dad was many things. He was a scholar, a jack-of-all-trades, a meticulous organizer and coordinator.
He was a textile engineer, a Viet Nam veteran, a pastor, missionary and water purification expert.
With him on your team, you knew the job would get done. He loved my mother deeply and his kids just
about as much.
More than anything, though, he was steadfastly committed to carrying out the will of God
in his life. Whether ministering to prison inmates, preaching the Sunday morning sermon, slinging 100 pound
bags of feed over his shoulder in the Honduran countryside, or foresaking his own safety by following God's call
to Iraq, my Dad was consumed with the desire to reach others with the good news of his Savior, Jesus Christ.
In the end, that dedication cost him his earthly life, but it afforded him the greatest of rewards which
he now enjoys in the presence of the Lord.
Dad, what can I say? You fought the good fight, and you finished the race to the glory of your Heavenly
Father. I'm so proud of you and what God accomplished through your life. I love you so much,
and I'll see you again in a little while!
[For those who have not been reading my blog for long, my father was killed along with my mother and two others
in Mosul, Iraq on March 15, 2004. They were on a humanitarian mission to bring aid to suffering and needy
people there. My parents had spent the last 25 years as missionaries in Honduras being used as vessels
through which the love of God changed countless lives.]
posted by Scott Elliott at 5:00pm 10/12/04
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