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Tuesday, September 1, 1998

Poll shows Bush would take easy win over Mauro

By ANNA M. TINSLEY

Scripps Howard Texas Poll Syndicate

Copyright 1998 Scripps Howard

Gov. George W. Bush would easily defeat Democratic Land Commissioner Garry Mauro if the 1998 Nov. 3 election for governor were held today, according to The Scripps Howard Texas Poll.

Sixty-seven percent of likely voters support Bush, 20 percent favor Mauro and 1 percent favor Libertarian candidate Lester Turlington Jr. Ten percent are undecided and 2 percent didn't answer.

This is similar to the support Bush enjoyed earlier this summer, 70 percent to Mauro's 17 percent.

At the same time, 74 percent of Texans say Bush is doing a good or excellent job as governor. This is one of Bush's highest job approval ratings since taking office in 1995.

"Gov. Bush is lucky and smart," said Allan Saxe, an assistant political science professor at the University of Texas in Arlington. "He came into office with no great controversy hanging over Texas' head - no prison, education or economic problems. He kept things very simple for people to understand and hasn't bitten off more than he can chew.

"Now he's ahead by an awfully huge margin. If Garry Mauro can close that to a 10 to 15 percent difference by election day, it will be a symbolic victory," Saxe said. "But it will be hard to do - a 50-point difference is a big one."

Even so, Mauro isn't conceding victory.

On Sunday, he met his goal of leading the effort to knock on 1 million doors this summer to encourage Texans to vote for him. During the June state Democratic Convention, Mauro promised he and his supporters would knock on 1 million doors by Labor Day.

The Poll shows Mauro made gains in two areas: among Hispanics and in West Texas.

In the June Texas Poll, Bush held a 78 percent to 13 percent advantage in West Texas and now leads 66 percent to 22 percent. Among Hispanics, Bush led 67 percent to 20 percent in June and now leads 51 percent to 31 percent.

"Garry Mauro is going to win, and he's going to win because he's right on the issues," said Mauro campaign manager Billy Rogers, who cited other state and Democratic polls that show the race much closer.

Mauro said the main issue is giving Texans the right to choose their own doctor. Bush says his issues are educating Texas children, making sure the state adequately funds public education, juvenile justice and ensuring that people in the welfare system are trained for jobs.

Rogers said the 1 million doors knocked on is a milestone and will help Mauro gain votes.

"We believe that this type of grass roots campaign is extremely effective," he said.

At the same time, Bush said he's pleased with the poll results and will continue trying to win Texans' support.

"I will not take anything for granted," Bush said. "I'm pleased the numbers have held over the course of the summer. People in Texas realize I have done what I said I would."

Bush's support spans every demographic group except blacks, where Mauro has 48 percent to Bush's 28 percent, and among Democrats who support Mauro 53 percent to Bush's 31 percent.

But overall, 74 percent of Texans approve of Bush's job performance, 20 percent disapprove and 6 percent don't know.

"I'm very pleased and honored about that," Bush said. "I have worked hard to be the governor of everybody."

The overall Texas Poll sample includes 32 percent Republicans, 28 percent Democrats, 22 percent independents, 12 percent "other" party and 6 percent don't know.

The political party breakdown of survey respondents who said they are likely to vote in November is 38 percent Republican, 30 percent Democrat, 21 percent independent, 10 percent "other" and 1 percent don't know.

But political analysts say Mauro has enough time before the November elections to make a dent in the poll numbers.

"Mauro is counting on two things: This door-to-door strategy and that nobody is paying attention to campaigning until after Labor Day," said Bruce Buchanan, a professor of government at the University of Texas at Austin.

"I expect the race will be tighter as we get closer to Election Day. There's a significant amount of time left and things can happen," Buchanan said. "But this number reflects Bush's very strong position, likely only to be turned over by some major snafu."

The poll was conducted Aug. 12-27 by the Office of Survey Research of the University of Texas for Scripps Howard. The entire sample of 1,004 adult Texans has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points. The margin of error for the 718 likely voters is plus or minus 3.7 percentage points.