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Jim's predictions for the week!!

DISCLAIMER:These weekly predictions are just for fun(although I may be right from time to time) DISCLAIMER:I am not a meteorologist,I am not a forecaster,forecasters have degrees.I check satellite,Models & upper air flows to make my decisions ,basically throwing the dice. Sometimes I may notice something the forecast models do not pick up on. For official advisories and forecast's go to The National hurricane center.
Updated every Monday.(Times may vary).
Accuracy basis per week=0%=a storm forms a day or two after saying no development or completely off on every aspect of current system for the week & something else forms I did not predictor nothing forms & I predicted a named storm---30%= may get 1 thing right such as strength, but way wrong on direction & or time of landfall.---50%= after predicting no development a storm forms on the 5th day of period or I am right on strength & off on movement or visa versa---70%=after predicting no development a storm forms on 6th day of forecast or everything right except strength & or a bit off of movement of system.---100%= I predict no development & nothing happens or I predict everything pretty accurate except for just off on movement give or take 100 miles off or so..
WEEK#1=100%....#2=00%....#3=100%....#4=100%....#5=100....#6=65%...#7=30%.For the year so far 70.71% accuracy
Season accuracy after completion of the 2001 Hurricane season 62.77%
Season accuracy after the 2002 Hurricane season 75.20%
Season accuracy after the 2003 Hurricane season 53.20%
Season accuracy after completion of the 2004 Hurricane season 70.71%



(July 18th through July 24th) This past week I predicted that we would see Emily form & become a hurricane going through the Caribbean sea. As far as course is concerned, I pretty much nailed it. The original forecast & model runs indicated a path generally over the greater antilles into Cuba. I never bought into this at all & said it would pass south of the Dennis track near Jamaica. It actually passed south of jamaica which did not suprise me. What did suprise me was the intensification in the Caribbean as we had yet another major hurricane in the caribbean early in the season. I predicted it would not reach major status in the Caribbean. I also said we would see the wave in the east atlantic become a hurricane & pass NE of the Northern Antilles and of course that never happened due to wind shear. The models were right on that call & I was wrong. Overall for last week I grade myself 30% accuracy with the only salvage as my forecast track. For this week ahead we have Hurricane Emily exiting the Yucatan peninsula moving WNW. I expect Emily to continue WNW as it has all along & hit the NE Mexico coast near La pesca.I expect a category 3 Hurricane at landfall moving just north of due west at time of landfall on Wednesday. Elsewhere there is really nothing of concern on the radar. We have an upper low with a trailing wave in the Caribbean & I do not expect any development from this due to unfavorable upper winds. There is also a nice wave exiting Africa that a few models develop as a weak system. My rule of thumb is not to predict development that far out in the Atlantic until late august, and despite this active season ,I will say no development. Emily moves in with no other named storms this week.


In both 2003 & 2004 Jim picked 4 out of the top 5 locations that were affected by tropical systems. The picks below for 2005 are based on seasons of 14 or more named storms,also active seasons of 12 or more named storms. The cities & Islandsin the database that are overdue or due for a T-Storm or Hurricane and areas hit by systems 2 or more years in a row.(NOTE:)if forecasters are wrong and we have way less than 14 named storms (11 or less),look out South Florida. If a Hurricane & or T-Storm comes within 70 Miles to the left or or 50 miles to the right or south of any one of these areas this season,consider it a hit.

VERY HIGH THREAT....... Mississippi coast,(ts cindy) .... Mid atl Elizabeth city N.C to Maryland, .... Vero bch to melbourne Fl, .... Punta Allen MX S yucatan,(emily br to north). West jamaica,....St Lucia , .... Eleuthera Isl BAH (ts Franklin br)
HIGH THREAT..........Tampico MX , .... Great Exuma,BAH , .... Cape Cod MA (hur or xtrop) , .... Anigua to St Martin , ... Dominica , .... Merida MX yucatan ,.... Belize, .... Haiti(SW Dennis),.... Cape hatteras, .... Mobile ALA(Arlene br)(Dennis br)
MODERATE THREAT(Ticking timebombs,way overdue)............ Manzanillo CUBA (Dennis).... Vera Cruz MX ,....Fernandina bch,Fla
Overdue mentions T.S & Hurricanes....St Thomas St John VI,....Marathon FL,....Port Arthur TX,....Bimini BAH,....Baracoa CUBA,....Sable Isl NS,....Key west FL,....Ft Lauderdale FL,....Key Largo FL,....Guadeloupe

If you have a comment or question about my predictions or about hurricanes,post it here

During this week back in?

MODELS / PREDICTIONS

24 hour AVN model
current upper level winds
48 hour atlantic AVN model
upper level winds in 48 hrs
MRF model up to 11days,SW Atl basin
MRF entire ATL basin
NASA experimental model
ECMWF Euorpean model
Current & past winds at all levels
Animated versions of gfs,cmc,nogaps,gfdl,wrf
Animated versions of cmc,gfs,gfdl,nogaps,ukmet
Navy FNMOC WXMAP Nogaps
FSU Super Ensemble Forecast
Scatterometer surface winds
Gary Gray's Trantech Model discussion
Crown Weather services Graphical model layouts
African dust animation
BOUY & SHIP DATA

Gulf of Mexico ship & buoy data
(MAP)Buoy data

Ocean pressures from sailwx.info
Get observations from Caribbean Islands & Mexico here
Waves coming off of Africa
weather Observations of waves in africa
closeup satelites of waves in Africa

SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES

sea surface temperatures(global daily)
Great atlantic water temp map from weatherunderground
Naval temp map with satelite overlay
Easier to read water temp maps from TPC(although not updated as often as above link)
Detailed water temps from Johns hopkins university for gulf,west atlantic & western caribbean sea

From university of Miami a detailed water temp map from Cuba north to Rhode Island
Extremely detailed Gulf of Mexico water temps by Rutgers
TIDES & SATELLITE LOOPS
Wave forecast's for western Atlantic basin
Expected high tides for areas affected by tropical systems listed in alphabetical order
Naval map of wave heights
Color enhanced vapor loop
moving vapor loops from CIMSS


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