Arthur Silber has given up blogging in despair. He's a good writer, frankly better than many of the big bloggers and he's so deep in a black hole he may have passed the event horizon.

This is the human consequence of the distribution regime Stirling has discussed at length, which rewards those who control the pipes and a very few producers and ignores almost everyone else.

May Arthur find an angel where he's going, for only a rare grace of human kindness will save him now. And may all of us be spared from ever needing such grace.

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Ian Welsh - Comments (1)
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Katrina’s ripples will spread far and wide through the economy.  While the initial damage phase is over, there are several Katrina caused major forces at play that could cause serious damage possibly leading to a recession. The worst part about this “perfect economic storm” is there is little the country can do for it from a policy perspective.  In essence, the country made its bed and now may be forced to sleep in it.

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Hale Stewart - Comments (0)
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The kitty hits this one dead center.

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Stirling Newberry - Comments (0)
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So large amounts of a major city on a transportation hub, with a great deal of historical "capital" are effectively destroyed and will have to be bulldozed and rebuilt. Before they were occupied by poor blacks, but there will be an opportunity now to move in, buy then up at fire, er water-sale prices, and build nice houses and offices.. Too bad the poor people won't be able to afford them, but wow, what an opportunity to get into land at low, low prices.

And with the new bankruptcy bill it'll be easy. Wait for 'em to go bankrupt, see that houses aren't exempt anymore and snap 'em up at water-sale prices.

It's the opportunity of a lifetime! Where were you when the New Orleans gold rush was taking place? Why didn't you get rich from "rebuilding New Orleans" for the right sort of people? (The sort of people who can afford your prices.)

Gonna be a lot of people grabbing for pieces of this action. Better get moving.

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Ian Welsh - Comments (5)
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The stock market rallied this week, largely as a result of lower oil prices, the possibility of a pause in the Fed’s recent rate hikes and expectations of a rebuilding boom for the Katrina affected areas. In addition, there were some indications of a strong economy before Katrina. The Fed released the Beige Book, which basically stated that the economy was on firm footing. The ISM number (see below) indicated the service sector of the economy was poised to grow. In addition, Texas Instruments gave a very upbeat earnings call late in the week, boosting tech shares. Technically, all three markets were a key reversal levels at the beginning of the week and were technically oversold. This implies that program trading most likely contributed to the gains. Finally, the S&P; 500 closed at a three year high.

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Hale Stewart - Comments (1)
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Michael Brown was made the Director of FEMA after brief confirmation hearings, after which he got glowing praise from Joe Lieberman who waved him through. As recent stories prove, there were unanswered questions in his background, and those unanswered questions would have show that he was probably not suited for the job. I am not someone who believes that only people who are walking stacks of paper should be in government. The ticket punching classes are not the only competent people. However there is nothing in Brown's background to suggest that he is qualified for the work.

That is the cost of stealth cabinet level appointments, ones which report to the President and over which Congress has oversight.

Now imagine the cost of a stealth supreme court appointment. Even as Americans are outraged at FEBAR, they are willing to repeat the mistakes which created it: an America asleep at the switch. Taken in by looks when they should realize they are picking a supreme court justice, not the star for the next "7th Heaven".

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Stirling Newberry - Comments (2)
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1. FEMA has been hackpacked and there has been a brain drain. Add Chief of Staff Patrick J. Rhode and Deputy Chief of Staff Brooks D. Altshuler to the list of names from nowhere.

2. Governor Blanco declared a state of emergency on the 26th.

3. Louisiana didn't have the money because the Feds took it all. Namely the 5 Billion in royalties from offshore drilling.

4. FEMA even held exercises to simulate what would happen if New Orleans took a direct hit. Last year. Speaking of Attention Deficit Disorder.

5. They can't blame Clinton.

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Stirling Newberry - Comments (3)
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Such as putting off the deadline

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Stirling Newberry - Comments (0)
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A reminder of the spiritual nature of epiphany in catastrophe.

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Stirling Newberry - Comments (0)
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Why can't we see action on this? Bringing America home is a great deal.

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Stirling Newberry - Comments (2)
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Gingrich is making sense. He's saying that the governments have a performance problem which has been revealed by the current Katrina disaster. He's right. But he's a flaming hypocrite. You can't have a government which is able to perform at peak capacity and at the same time starve the beast. You can't treat the government as a pork factory and expect it to perform.

Gingrich has been out of power a long time now and he's hoping that he can reinvent himself as an outsider coming in to whip things into shape. He's a smart man and he's seizing the moment. If the Democrats don't watch out he's going to be the one wearing the Reform mantle - not them.

Carpe Diem. The Democratic party had better seize the day on this one or they're going to be outflanked and the party of Reform - reforming their own messes, is going to be Republican. The ticket will have a moderate Republican like Giuliani or McCain at the top and Gingrich will try and lead a new revolution in the House and they will wipe the floor with the Democrats.

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Ian Welsh - Comments (7)
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Odman's got a post up which you should read if you haven't already. I want to riff off it briefly.

The basic reality in Iraq is this: the insurgency knows exactly where US troops are and exactly what they are doing. They don't go on patrol, send out a convoy or make an attack of any significance without the insurgency knowing.

On the other hand the US has almost no idea what the insurgency is doing, who its leaders are, how many men it has or where they are located unless the insurgency decides to let them know.

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Ian Welsh - Comments (6)
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Never did We destroy
A population that had not
A term decreed and assigned
In writing known.

As translated from the Qu'ranSura XV 4

In Salman Rushdie's novel The Satanic Verses, an angel tropicalizes London. His character looks down on the city:

"He was hovering high over London! – Hahha, they couldn't touch him now, the devils rushing upon him in that Pandemonium! – He looked down upon the city and saw the English. The rouble with the English was that they were English: damn cold fish! – Living underwater most of the year, in days of the colour of night! – Well: he was here now, the great Transformer, and this time there'd be some changes made – the laws of nature are the laws of its transformation, and he was the very person to utilize the same! – Yes, indeed: this time, clarity."

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Stirling Newberry - Comments (2)
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Texas legislators bolted the state to try to block Tom DeLay's unprecedented congressional redistricting plan, the majority leader instantly mobilized the Department of Homeland Security to track down his enemies. Links here, and here, and here.

Second fact: Louisiana state of emergency declared on Friday, Aug. 26. On Monday, FEMA asked Homeland Security if it might be okay to get 1,000 staffers ready to go to La. in a couple of days. See Think Progress timeline.

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Glenn Smith - Comments (0)
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This has Oscar written all over its lead performance, and it has the makings of a compelling film.

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Stirling Newberry - Comments (4)
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Right now Congress is gearing up to spend 100+ billion on Katrina. The first appropriation bill for some $52 billion is set to go for only the first five weeks. That's $1.4 billion a day according to CNN. Meanwhile, according to the Guardian the Iraq reconstruction is collapsing because corruption, waste, and security costs are exhausting funding. What are the chances do you think that we'll be able to throw another $20-50 billion at Iraq now to get it working? Logically, we could just add it onto the national debt tab. Politically, people are already balking at the war and that was before Katrina made them resentful about resources diverted to Iraq.

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oldman - Comments (8)
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"There is no doubt that this is going to be a very tough winter season for the American economy (and) for American homeowners," Bodman said in an interview on the "Fox & Friends" television news program.

The Energy Information Administration said on Wednesday Americans who warm their homes with natural gas could see their fuel costs jump by as much as 71 percent this winter in some parts of the country.

Residential heating bills for heating oil will increase by 31 percent, and electricity users will see their costs rise by 17 percent, the Energy Department's analytical arm said in its latest monthly energy forecast.

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Hale Stewart - Comments (3)
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This is hardly the first time, or even the second. The chorous has been growing louder, and It just got another voice.

The reality is that we are already in the outer stages of stagflation, merely that the CPI and GDP deflator exclude housing inflation from calculations. The former makes the headline inflation number seem lower than it is, and the latter inflates GDP. The effect is signficant, CPI is probably understated by 2 points, and GDP price index for the economy is probably understated by 1 point. The paradox of "high inflation and low employment growth" is underlined even more, if one looks at percentage increase in payrolls, rather than in the headline unemployment number. This is based on the "B" tables at BLS, and shows that hiring is still anemic.

We have a situation where consumer deflation in consumables and goods is making it so that people, rather than looking for work, are leaving the above ground economy.

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Stirling Newberry - Comments (0)
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It was the Romantic era that elevated revolt for it own sake, to overturn and overthrow the established order. It began, perhaps, with Locke who made legalistic appeals to a hidden natural law to which men could appeal. But it became an art with Rousseau, who wrote "Men are born free, but are everywhere in chains."

The chains of the body are more spectacular and gruesome - concentration camps, slavery, children who toil in dark factories - all evoke and immediate and powerful response. The chains of the mind are much more pernicous, for there is nothing made that was not first born in thought. However, Americans did not feel the chains of the mind, and even forged them, link by link, day by day.

Revolt has come to America with Katrina. But it is not merely a revolt against the Republican leadership, nor even against the reactionary form of government. It is not merely political revolt, but social and ideological as well.

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Stirling Newberry - Comments (5)
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President Bush issued an executive order Thursday allowing federal contractors rebuilding in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina to pay below the prevailing wage.

In a notice to Congress, Bush said the hurricane had caused "a national emergency" that permits him to take such action under the 1931 Davis-Bacon Act in ravaged areas of Alabama, Florida, Louisiana and Mississippi.

What more can I add to this?

CNN Link

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Hale Stewart - Comments (17)
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II - Allegro Pastorale. This will be Quartet #8 when completed.

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Stirling Newberry - Comments (0)
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I was pleased when I heard that Bush wanted an additional 51 billion for Katrina victims. It is the right thing to do. But then the economist in me (he’s never far behind) started asking some really tough questions, like “where is the money going to come from?” I know that is probably the most insensitive question I could ask at this point, but it’s vitally important to the nation’s health. The more I looked at the numbers, the more concerned I became. Bush is a fiscal disaster. There is no way the Republicans can claim they are better managers of the nation’s finances.

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Hale Stewart - Comments (7)
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The Katarina disaster has highlighted what happens when the primary goal of legislators is to use the government as a profit center. The Republican government was elected with a mandate to funnel money to their primary constituents. Here's how they did it.

Tax cuts for the rich were the first and most important method. Bush once noted that his base is the rich; the tax cuts were overwhelmingly aimed at the rich. Those tax cuts left the federal government with record deficits.

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Ian Welsh - Comments (10)
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In the first indication of how many deaths Louisiana alone might expect, Robert Johannessen, a spokesman for the State Department of Health and Hospitals, said on Wednesday that the Federal Emergency Management Agency had ordered 25,000 body bags.

NYTimes Link
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Hale Stewart - Comments (4)
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That's a tropical storm. Don't be surprised if the next NHC update increases the expected intensity in the future. here's an update which implies that Ophelia may well have guidance moved upwards at the next full forecast.

For those following this, send a word of thanks to a government agency that has been on the job, around the clock, and produced stellar results, and a consistent stream of high quality information and analysis - the National Hurricane Center.

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Stirling Newberry - Comments (1)
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The illegal corporate cash Tom DeLay used to build new protective political levees for the GOP has led to five more indictments from a Travis County, Texas, grand jury this morning. If only Bush/DeLay would have put a similar effort into real levees to save real lives rather than enhance and protect their own lust for power.

Indicted was Tom DeLay's political action committee, Texans for a Republican Majority, for the illegal use of corporate money in its campaign to win a majority in the Texas House of Representatives and pull off an unprecedented mid-decade Congressional redistricting plan. A state group, the Texas Association of Business, was also accused in four indictments.

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Glenn Smith - Comments (1)
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We had best hope that hurricane watchers not learn Greek. According to the National Hurricane Center, if this list of names for 2005 is exhausted, then the operational plan calls for using Greek letters. With Ophelia already here, and with a potential bouncing baby Phillipe potentially forming in the Gulf of Mexico it is a distinc possibility to see at least a Tropical Storm Alpha before the atlantic tropical cyclone season closes.

However, in a stroke, this decade has joined a select company: the decades of disaster of high rates of fatalities from Atlantic tropical cyclones. Hurricane Katrina will probably be behind only the Galveston Hurricane of 1900 in total deaths in the continental US.

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Stirling Newberry - Comments (2)
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I'm having a really tough time with Gmail. I switched a year ago and I'm starting to regret it. Recently there always seems to be some error that doesn't let me login or send mail, and now I'm sending test messages to my gmail account from other email accounts and they aren't coming through. Is anyone else out there having problems? It's gotten really bad over the past week, to the point where my main account is basically unusable.

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AaronBurrFan - Comments (4)
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and taking pictures.

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Stirling Newberry - Comments (5)
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Thanks to the Internet, Eye-Witness Reports are now coming out from the FEMA relocation camps--which are being described as Detainment Camps and Concentration Camps. Please read this photo-documented first-person report in full, from the FEMA Detainment Camp in Falls Creek, Oklahoma:

The occupants of the camp cannot leave the camp for any reason. If they leave the camp they may never return. They will be issued FEMA identification cards and "a sum of money" and they will remain within the camp for the next 5 months.

What crimes did the detainees commit to deserve incarceration? They were born poor in America. And they trusted their government.

What is happening, America? What is happening here on American soil?

Please keep documenting what is happening. Remember to take a camera, a video camera, or a tape recorder. Shine a light on what is happening.

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Shaula Evans - Comments (14)
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Real Estate is largely a local market, tied to the economic growth and contraction of a specific locality rather than the national economy. This makes it more difficult to ascertain the national direction of the real estate market, and regrettably allows the rightwing to claim there is no housing bubble because there are no national statistics. The overwhelming evidence contradicts this view. So, if you are of the opinion there is no bubble, find something else to read, buy a home and start losing money.

However, it you are of the opinion there is a real estate bubble, more evidence is emerging the nation is experiencing a top.

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Hale Stewart - Comments (2)
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The New York State attorney general led a coalition of 15 states and New York City on Wednesday, filing a lawsuit against the U.S. Department of Energy. The suit cites the DOE's alleged failure to enact tougher energy standards that Congress required for 22 household appliances.

The suit claims that deadlines set to stiffen manufacturers' energy requirements lapsed years ago. The state bigwigs say that such standards would save electricity, natural gas and oil--and could garner annual energy savings meeting the total energy needs of 3 million to 12 million U.S. households.

Spitzer is a high-profile Democrat. But lest any characterize the lawsuit as a blue state-red state schism, note the coalition's geographic breakdown, one that eschews such simplistic models. Besides the New York AG, other attorneys general and officials involved hail from Wisconsin, California, Connecticut, Illinois, Iowa, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Vermont. And the congressional standards--and the DOE's alleged lethargy--date back to the Clinton Administration.

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Hale Stewart - Comments (0)
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The enormity of what has happened in New Orleans has only just begun to sink into people. And even as it is, there is a concerted attempt to bury the truth. The reality is that thousands of people have died. Not hundreds, not "over a thousand". Thousands. The likelihood is that more people have died in this disaster than in 9/11. There is a strong possibility that more people have died in this disaster than in the Galveston Hurricane of 1900.

In a democracy, we must see the results of our actions. We must be able to stare, unflinichingly, and look. We must know where we stand, so that we may decide what to do. While the right wing goes on about "liberal elites", the fact is that they are subjecting us to a paternalistic elitism which decides what we can and cannot see. This is not a blame game, it is more simply, a search for the facts.

That is what we need right now. Just the facts. And we need them with vivid images so that the emotional impact is not lost.

We must open New Orleans to the press, or it will haunt us as stories of what happened there become exagerated with the telling. While, in the short term, this will magnify the size of what has happened, in the long term it is necessary for the health of the country to trust what is and is not done.

We must have open government that works in the light of day.

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Stirling Newberry - Comments (20)
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All governmental entities have low approval in handling this. But Bush's has plummeted - from 56% the day of the landing to 35% today. What this has done has prevented Bush from getting a bounce in the polls after being, again, the master of disaster.

The money shot is here

"George W. Bush"
9/5-6/05 10 25 21 18 24
"Federal government agencies responsible for handling emergencies"
9/5-6/05 8 27 20 20 22
"State and local officials in Louisiana"
9/5-6/05 7 30 23 20 15

The reality is that this disaster is a blow to conservatism of both Democratic and Repbulican varieties. Both have wanted to obliterate the federal government and move matters to the states. Well, as FDR found in 1933, the states often become havens of corruption, and only the Federal Government has the power and resources to handle the great emergencies and balance the great currents of state.

For the last 25 years, an alliance of dixiecrats and plutocrats has convinced everyone that everyone is better off with an anemic, incompetent reactive federal government. They got their wish. Unfortunately, it isn't they who paid the death tax on the costs.

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Stirling Newberry - Comments (6)
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From the National Press Photographer's Association.

New Orleans Times-Picayune reporter Gordon Russell witnessed gunfire between police and civilians that he says "left one man dead in a pool of blood." Afterwards police slammed Russell and the photojournalist against a wall and threw their equipment to the ground when the duo got out of their SUV to cover the scene.

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Stirling Newberry - Comments (1)
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Bush Asks Congress for additional $51.8 bn in relief funds

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Shaula Evans - Comments (2)
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It will make almost everyone angry, but here it is.

The essential point is this: Reaganomics didn't lead to a massive disaster because it addressed a basic problem of political economy which had plagued the 1970's. It was not, however, a departure from Keynesian demand side policies, in that it relied on stimulating demand for investment, and it did so by a very big government liberal mechanism: it created a new government entitlement, namely a debt without end. This third entitlement was paid for, as all inflationry entitlements are paid for under Keynesianism, with a regressive payroll tax.

Bush by breaking one half of this equation - namely keeping a lid on demand created by the entitlement program - has broken Reaganomics. In essence, Bush and his followers have massively expanded the entitlement program they like, without finding a way to manage the demand that creates.

The result is being trapped, ironically, on the triangle promulgated by the god father of Supply Side Economics - Robert Mundell.

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Stirling Newberry - Comments (5)
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This will come as a shock to pundits on the right who are desperately trying to paper over the inherent problems of the US economy: there’s a housing bubble. I know, this is nothing more than liberal hysteria. If I only had positive thoughts about everything, the bubble would miraculously turn into a net benefit that would cease my worrying. Color me a realist instead. The housing bubble is in fact pretty dangerous, and not just because a drop in asset prices would shock overall sentiment. The increase in real estate values is a primary reason for the latest US economic expansion. When real estate asset prices slow their increase, the primary engine of recent US economic growth will also slow, sending ripples through the economy that could have very negative consequences.

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Hale Stewart - Comments (3)
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I am highly critical of Tavis Smiley's show, it is one of the most vapid exercises in stenography known to man, which soft pedals right wing drivel with a fawning that even Larry King cannot match. Which giving credit where credit is due is important:

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Stirling Newberry - Comments (0)
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One disaster response plan. Never used, some water damage.

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Stirling Newberry - Comments (1)
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US Agency censors pictures of the dead in New Orleans

Tom DeLay cancels Katrina response hearings. Will chairman Davis cave in to the pressure?

That's right, an entire city is going to be erased from the map, and you are not going to be allowed to see it.

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Stirling Newberry - Comments (8)
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Outrage isn't enough. Preaching to the choir isn't enough. Blogging isn't going to help evacuees rebuild their lives. If you don't have money to give, you can still help.

Here is what you can do:

Open Your Home
KatrinaShelter.com is a grassroots website using GoogleMaps to hook up individuals and organizations offering shelter with people who need it. Includes info on whether food is included and whether site is FEMA or Red Cross approved.
[Via Los Blogueros]

Roll Up Your Sleeves
Habitat for Humanity is making an emergency appeal for donations to help Habitat partner families affected by Katrina, and has begun planning the long-term recovery and the building of permanent recovery homes in Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and Florida. Are you as thrilled as I am that Halliburton already has a no-bid contract to pillage New Orleans? Then help with the real reconstruction by helping Habitat build decent, safe, affordable housing.

Share Your Time
Volunteer through USA Freedom Corps.

Give Customer Loyalty Points
From First Pulse Projects via NewsGrist:

"Ask the hotel you frequent, such as the Marriott or Holiday Inn, to give your hotel points to an individual or family in need of a stay for a night, a few nights, or longer, depending on how many points you have. Be sure to get confirmation that your points have been applied in that way. Encourage others to do the same. Also inquire if your airline Frequent Flyer mileage can be used for hotel stays as well."

Make Your Dollars Count
Charity Navigator has a list of tips to make sure your donations go to a relief organization that is legitimate and effective.
NetworkforGood has a list of creditable organizations working on the ground in the disaster relief effort can put your donations to work right now.
If you are planning on donating to the Red Cross, please consider making your contribution through The Liberal Blogs for Hurricane Relief campaign, and post the ad on your own site.

Don't Forget
Katrina will fade away from the focus of the attention-deficit media as the latest newsporn fad usurps the spotlight (i.e., as soon as a white woman victim makes the headlines), but the reconstruction efforts will take months if not years, and will require a huge amount of money, supplies, and volunteers. Find a way to make sure that you aren't duped into forgetting the people that the Bush administration abandoned: commit to a planned giving program; promise yourself right now that over the winter holidays, your present-budget will go to a relief charity organization; give your time to evacuees in your area who will be rebuilding their lives away from their communities, families, and support networks.

Don't buy a bumpersticker. Don't fall for a feel-good panacea. These people desperately need help. Do what you can--and make it count.

Please share in the comments any other good resources, methods, or organizations to help people make a real difference. Thank you.

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Shaula Evans - Comments (6)
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