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Home > Statistics & Research > Trends in Foster Care and Adoption

AFCARS Trends Chart

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Discussion of "Trends" Chart

The foster care and adoption estimates in the graph above are current as of September 2005. As states continue to submit revised data and the Children's Bureau continues to refine its estimation strategy, estimates will be continually updated based on these changes. Historically, this has resulted in an increase in the numbers of exits, particularly exits to adoption. Data for the most recent year in this chart are considered preliminary.

Reading from left to right, the data contained in the graph include the estimated number of children:

  1. In foster care on the last day of the federal fiscal year (September 30): This is an estimated count of all the children in foster care on the last day of the year. An individual child is included in the count for each year for which he or she is in foster care on the last day.


  2. Entering care during the federal fiscal year: This is an estimated count of all children who enter foster care during the year. An individual child is counted only once for each year, even if the child entered, exited and re-entered care during the year. If an individual child entered in one year and then exits and re-enters in a subsequent year, he or she is included in the count of entries for both years.


  3. Exiting care during the federal fiscal year: This is an estimated count of all children who exited foster care during the year. An individual child is counted only once for each year, even if the child exited, re-entered and exited again during the year. If an individual child exits care in one year and then re-enters and exits again in a subsequent year, he or she is included in the count of exits for both years.


  4. Waiting to be adopted: This is an estimated count of all children who are waiting to be adopted on the last day of the year. An individual child is included in the count for each year in which he or she is waiting to be adopted on the last day. Children waiting to be adopted include children with a goal of adoption and/or whose parental rights have been terminated. Children whose parental rights have been terminated, who are 16 years old and older, and who have a goal of emancipation are excluded from the "waiting" population.


  5. Whose parental rights have been terminated: This is an estimated count of the children in care on the last day of the year who are both waiting for adoption and whose parental rights have been terminated. An individual child is counted only once for each year. An individual child is included in the count for each year that he or she has these characteristics on the last day of the year.


  6. Adopted: This is an estimated count of all children adopted during the year with public child welfare agency involvement. An individual child is counted only once for each year. In rare cases when a child is adopted multiple times, the child will be counted in each year he or she is adopted.


  7. Served:This is an estimated count of all children who were in the public foster care system during the year. This number is the sum of two mutually exclusive groups of children: the children who are already in care on the first day of the fiscal year (as of October 1) and the children who enter foster care during the year. An individual child is counted only once for each year.

Ideally, the count in # 1 (in foster care on the last day of the year) plus the count in # 3 (exiting foster care during the fiscal year) should equal the count in # 7 (served). They are not equal in any year. However, since FY 2001, the difference has been between 1,000 and 2,000, or less than one tenth of one percent. Some of the difference can be attributed to estimation procedures and rounding. The remainder is generally the result of the under-reporting of foster care exits by some states.

The data show that the estimated number of children in foster care on the last day (September 30) of each federal fiscal year has decreased steadily from 552,000 in FY 2000 to 518,000 in FY 2004. The estimated number of children entering foster care annually between FY 2000 and FY 2004 has remained relatively stable-between 293,000 and 304,000. The estimated number of children exiting foster care increased between FY 2000 and FY 2004 from 272,000 to 283,000. The estimated number of children waiting to be adopted declined between FY 2000 and FY 2004 from 132,000 to 118,000. The estimated number of children whose parents have had their rights terminated remained relatively constant between FY 2000 and FY 2004 at between 72,000 and 65,000. The estimated number of children adopted annually from FY 2000 FY 2004 remained relatively constant at approximately 50,000. After having remained relatively stable from FY 2000 to FY 2002 at between 811,000 and 813,000, the number of children served during the year declined in FY 2003 and FY 2004 to approximately 800,000.