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| October 25, 2005 - Bloomberg Keeps 31-Point Lead After Terror Alert,
Quinnipiac University Poll Finds;
Few Say Mayor Has Too Many Commercials
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Even after calling off the subway terror alert, Republican Mayor Michael Bloomberg still
leads Democratic challenger Fernando Ferrer 61 - 30 percent among New York City likely
voters, according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today. Conservative candidate
Thomas Ognibene gets 2 percent and 7 percent are undecided.
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Mayor Bloomberg had opened a 60 - 32 percent lead over Ferrer in an October 12
poll by the independent Quinnipiac (KWIN-uh-pe-ack) University, conducted just as the
Mayor announced a major alert about possible terrorism in the subways.
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In this latest survey, conducted one week after the Mayor called off the alert,
Bloomberg leads Ferrer 77 - 18 percent among white likely voters, and by a narrow 48 -
44 percent among black likely voters, while Hispanic likely voters back Ferrer 48 - 43
percent.
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"Mayor Bloomberg's domination persists. Some politicians think lots of black
voters will 'come home' to the Democratic line and lots of Hispanic voters will pull the
lever for the Hispanic candidate. But, with two weeks until Election Day, it's shaping up as
a blow-out to end all blow-outs," said Maurice Carroll, director of the Quinnipiac
University Polling Institute.
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"Their mind is made up, 92 percent of Bloomberg supporters and 85 percent of
Ferrer voters say."
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By a 62 - 11 percent margin, New York City likely voters have a favorable opinion
of Bloomberg, with 23 percent mixed. Ferrer gets a 30 - 27 percent favorability, with 34
percent mixed and 8 percent who say they haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
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Bloomberg's personal wealth gives him an unfair advantage in the mayoral race, voters
say 51 - 47 percent.
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Among the 91 percent of likely voters who have seen any of Bloomberg's TV
commercials, 58 percent say they are "useful," while 35 percent say they are "not useful."
Only 35 percent of voters who have seen Bloomberg commercials, say he has "too many,"
with 56 percent who say the number is "about right."
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By a 58 - 37 percent margin, voters agree with Ferrer's position that there are "two
New Yorks," one for the rich and one for the poor.
But by a narrow 48 - 45 percent margin, voters say that Ferrer is being "divisive" by
saying there are two New Yorks. White voters say 58 - 36 percent that it is divisive, while
black voters say 52 - 37 percent that it is not divisive and Hispanic voters say 51 - 41 percent
that it is not divisive.
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The 80 percent of voters who have seen Ferrer TV commercials split 47 - 46 percent
on whether they are "useful" or "not useful." Among people who have seen Ferrer
commercials, only 5 percent say there are "too many," with 42 percent who say "too few,"
and 45 percent who say "about right."
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"A backlash from a sense of 'over-kill' that some politicians looked for isn't there.
Bloomberg ads crowd TV screens but, just like in Goldilocks, voters think their daily helping
of Bloomberg porridge is just about right," Carroll said.
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"Is the city divided between haves and have-nots? New Yorkers think so. Is Ferrer
wrong in saying so? The verdict is split."
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From October 18 - 23, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,413 New York City
registered voters. The survey includes 723 likely voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.6
percentage points.
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The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts
public opinion surveys in New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Pennsylvania, Florida and
nationwide as a public service and for research.
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For additional data -- www.quinnipiac.edu or call (203) 582-5201
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1. If the election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates were
Fernando Ferrer the Democrat, and Michael Bloomberg the Republican, and
Thomas Ognibene the Conservative Party candidate, for whom would you vote?
If undecided: Well as of today, do you lean more towards Ferrer, Bloomberg or
Ognibene? This table includes Leaners
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Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Ferrer 30% 4% 42% 19% 23% 35%
Bloomberg 61 89 52 71 66 57
Ognibene 2 6 1 2 4 1
SMONE ELSE - - - 1 - -
WLDN'T VOTE - - - - - -
DK/NA 7 1 4 7 7 7
Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl
Ferrer 38% 34% 31% 25% 20%
Bloomberg 48 62 62 65 67
Ognibene 3 - 1 4 7
SMONE ELSE - - 1 - -
WLDN'T VOTE - - - - -
DK/NA 11 4 6 7 6
Wht Blk Hisp
Ferrer 18% 44% 48%
Bloomberg 77 48 43
Ognibene 2 1 1
SMONE ELSE - 1 -
WLDN'T VOTE - - -
DK/NA 3 7 8
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TREND: If the election for mayor were being held today, and the candidates
were Fernando Ferrer the Democrat, Michael Bloomberg the Republican, and
Thomas Ognibene, the Conservative Party candidate, for whom would you vote?
If undecided: Well as of today, do you lean more towards Ferrer, Bloomberg or
Ognibene? * This table includes leaners. n/a = not asked
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LIKELY VOTERS WITH LEANERS
Oct 25 Oct 12 Sep 21
2005 2005 2005
Ferrer 30 32 38
Bloomberg 61 60 52
Ognibene 2 1 n/a
SMONE ELSE - - 1
WLDN'T VOTE - - -
DK/NA 7 7 9
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1b. Is your mind made up, or do you think you might change your mind before the
election?
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Cand Choice
Tot FF MB
Made up 89% 85% 92%
Might change 10 15 6
DK/NA 1 1 1
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2. Is your opinion of Michael Bloomberg favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or
haven't you heard enough about him?
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Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Favorable 62% 80% 56% 68% 64% 60%
Unfavorable 11 4 12 10 10 12
Mixed 23 15 26 19 23 24
Hvn't hrd enough 3 1 3 2 1 3
REFUSED 2 - 2 1 2 1
Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl
Favorable 61% 62% 62% 61% 59%
Unfavorable 11 13 8 9 23
Mixed 22 22 25 26 18
Hvn't hrd enough 1 2 5 2 -
REFUSED 5 1 - 2 -
Wht Blk Hisp
Favorable 71% 59% 46%
Unfavorable 6 8 22
Mixed 21 27 25
Hvn't hrd enough 1 4 6
REFUSED - 2 2
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TREND: Is your opinion of Michael Bloomberg favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or
haven't you heard enough about him?
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LIKELY VOTERS.........................
Oct 25 Oct 12 Sep 21 Nov 5 Oct 24
2005 2005 2005 2001 2001
Favorable 62 58 54 39 35
Unfavorable 11 15 16 20 20
Mixed 23 26 27 30 28
Hvn't hrd enough 3 1 1 9 15
REFUSED 2 1 1 2 2
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3. Is your opinion of Fernando Ferrer favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or
haven't you heard enough about him?
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Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Favorable 30% 7% 39% 23% 28% 31%
Unfavorable 27 55 18 31 30 24
Mixed 34 30 34 33 32 35
Hvn't hrd enough 8 6 7 11 8 8
REFUSED 2 1 1 2 3 1
Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl
Favorable 42% 30% 28% 25% 19%
Unfavorable 22 29 28 23 38
Mixed 29 31 35 38 35
Hvn't hrd enough 3 7 8 12 8
REFUSED 5 2 - 2 -
Wht Blk Hisp
Favorable 17% 42% 50%
Unfavorable 36 14 14
Mixed 37 31 29
Hvn't hrd enough 8 11 4
REFUSED 1 2 2
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TREND: Is your opinion of Fernando Ferrer favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or
haven't you heard enough about him?
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LIKELY VOTERS ........
Oct 25 Oct 12 Sep 21
2005 2005 2005
Favorable 30 29 36
Unfavorable 27 24 21
Mixed 34 37 30
Hvn't hrd enough 8 9 11
REFUSED 2 1 2
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4. Is your opinion of Thomas Ognibene favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or
haven't you heard enough about him?
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Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Favorable 5% 11% 4% 4% 5% 5%
Unfavorable 9 11 9 7 10 8
Mixed 6 5 5 10 7 6
Hvn't hrd enough 79 72 81 78 76 81
REFUSED 1 - 1 1 3 -
Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl
Favorable 4% 6% 5% 4% 4%
Unfavorable 3 12 10 8 9
Mixed 5 6 4 9 6
Hvn't hrd enough 86 75 81 78 77
REFUSED 1 1 - 2 4
Wht Blk Hisp
Favorable 4% 6% 7%
Unfavorable 11 7 6
Mixed 7 4 7
Hvn't hrd enough 77 83 79
REFUSED 1 - 1
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TREND: Is your opinion of Thomas Ognibene favorable, unfavorable, mixed, or
haven't you heard enough about him?
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LIKELY VOTERS
Oct 25 Oct 12
2005 2005
Favorable 5 5
Unfavorable 9 11
Mixed 6 5
Hvn't hrd enough 79 78
REFUSED 1 1
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5. Do you think Michael Bloomberg's personal wealth gives him an unfair
advantage in the mayoral race or not?
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Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Yes 51% 26% 59% 46% 55% 48%
No 47 74 38 54 43 50
DK/NA 2 - 3 1 2 3
Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl
Yes 56% 51% 44% 57% 43%
No 39 47 55 41 53
DK/NA 5 1 2 2 4
Wht Blk Hisp
Yes 42% 56% 62%
No 56 39 38
DK/NA 2 5 -
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6. Have you seen any of Michael Bloomberg's television commercials for this
year's election for mayor?
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Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Yes 91% 87% 93% 87% 90% 92%
No 9 13 7 12 9 8
DK/NA - - - 1 1 -
Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl
Yes 95% 89% 88% 94% 91%
No 5 11 11 5 9
DK/NA - - - - -
Wht Blk Hisp
Yes 88% 97% 95%
No 12 3 5
DK/NA 1 - -
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7. (If 'yes' q6)From what you have seen of Michael Bloomberg's television
commercials, have you found the information provided useful or not useful?
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Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Useful 58% 76% 54% 60% 54% 61%
Not useful 35 20 38 35 37 33
DK/NA 7 4 8 5 9 6
Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl
Useful 70% 57% 49% 62% 58%
Not useful 22 37 45 31 35
DK/NA 9 7 7 7 7
Wht Blk Hisp
Useful 59% 65% 57%
Not useful 34 29 35
DK/NA 7 6 8
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8. (If 'yes' q6)Do you think Michael Bloomberg has too many commercials on TV,
too few commercials on TV, or about the right amount?
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Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Too many 35% 19% 40% 31% 40% 31%
Too few 3 2 2 2 3 3
About right 56 75 51 59 51 60
DK/NA 6 4 6 7 6 6
Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl
Too many 33% 36% 37% 34% 31%
Too few 4 2 2 3 4
About right 57 58 53 56 62
Wht Blk Hisp
Too many 32% 33% 44%
Too few 2 3 2
About right 59 58 51
DK/NA 7 6 2
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9. Fernando Ferrer has said that there are two New Yorks - One for the rich
and one for the poor. Do you agree or disagree?
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Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Agree 58% 22% 70% 49% 54% 61%
Disagree 37 74 26 47 42 34
DK/NA 5 4 4 4 4 5
Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl
Agree 57% 61% 61% 59% 33%
Disagree 35 34 35 38 64
DK/NA 9 5 4 3 2
Wht Blk Hisp
Agree 48% 71% 66%
Disagree 48 23 30
DK/NA 4 6 4
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10. Do you think by saying there are two New Yorks that Fernando Ferrer is being
divisive or not?
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Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Yes 48% 83% 39% 51% 51% 46%
No 45 15 54 43 43 46
DK/NA 7 2 7 5 6 7
Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl
Yes 44% 45% 47% 53% 61%
No 43 50 49 40 32
DK/NA 13 5 4 8 8
Wht Blk Hisp
Yes 58% 37% 41%
No 36 52 51
DK/NA 6 11 8
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11. Have you seen any of Fernando Ferrer's television commercials for this
year's election for mayor?
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Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Yes 80% 79% 81% 77% 79% 81%
No 19 20 19 22 21 18
DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1
Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl
Yes 93% 75% 74% 80% 86%
No 7 24 24 18 12
DK/NA - 1 1 1 1
Wht Blk Hisp
Yes 76% 84% 86%
No 23 15 13
DK/NA 1 1 1
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12. (If 'yes' q11)From what you have seen of Fernando Ferrer's television
commercials, have you found the information provided useful or not useful?
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Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Useful 47% 35% 53% 42% 39% 52%
NOT useful 46 63 39 54 51 42
DK/NA 7 2 8 5 9 6
Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl
Useful 51% 52% 45% 44% 34%
NOT useful 39 43 50 46 56
DK/NA 10 5 5 10 10
Wht Blk Hisp
Useful 34% 60% 65%
NOT useful 61 35 26
DK/NA 6 6 9
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13. (If 'yes' q11)Do you think Fernando Ferrer has too many commercials on TV,
too few commercials on TV, or about the right amount?
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Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Too many 5% 9% 3% 6% 4% 6%
Too few 42 23 49 37 47 39
About right 45 54 42 48 39 49
DK/NA 8 14 6 8 10 7
Brnx Kngs Man Qns StIsl
Too many 7% 5% 4% 5% 1%
Too few 40 43 40 45 36
About right 43 47 46 41 54
DK/NA 9 5 10 8 9
Wht Blk Hisp
Too many 8% 1% 4%
Too few 35 53 43
About right 45 43 48
DK/NA 12 4 6
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