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| February 13, 2006 - Casey Widens Lead Over Santorum In Pennsylvania,
Quinnipiac University Poll Finds;
Voters Lean To Pro-Choice Side Of Abortion Debate
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Democratic State Treasurer Robert Casey Jr. holds a 51 - 36 percent lead over incumbent
Republican U.S. Sen. Rick Santorum in the Pennsylvania Senate race, with 10 percent undecided,
according to a Quinnipiac University poll released today.
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This compares to a 50 - 38 percent Casey lead in a December 13, 2005, poll by the
independent Quinnipiac (KWIN uh-pe-ack) University.
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In this latest survey, Republicans back Santorum 70 - 21 percent, while Democrats back
Casey 80 - 12 percent and independent voters back the Democrat 52 - 29 percent. Men back
Casey 49 - 38 percent and women back him 53 - 35 percent.
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While both candidates are pro-life, Pennsylvania voters lean to the pro-choice side of the
abortion debate, with:
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- 17 percent who say abortion should be legal in all cases;
- 36 percent who say abortion should be legal in most cases;
- 25 percent who say abortion should be illegal in most cases;
- 16 percent who say abortion should be illegal in all cases.
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"Sen. Santorum opens the election year a solid 15 points behind Bob Casey and facing
serious opposition from a significant number of members of his own party. One in five
Republicans are voting for Casey at this point and label Santorum's views as 'extreme'," said
Clay F. Richards, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.
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"The same number of GOP voters say Santorum does not deserve reelection. Casey is
leading in every region of the state except Central Pennsylvania, and there Santorum's six point
lead is not solid," Richards added. "A majority of independents meanwhile are joining an
overwhelming Democratic support for Casey.
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"President George W. Bush, with an approval rating of just 37 percent in Pennsylvania,
isn't doing much to help one of his strongest supporters in Washington. But the campaign is just
beginning and Santorum has a rock-hard base to build on, while Casey has not been tested by
extensive television exposure or debates."
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Pennsylvania voters disapprove 59 - 37 percent of the job President Bush is doing overall
and disapprove 60 - 37 percent of his handling of the situation in Iraq. Going to war in Iraq was
the wrong thing to do, voters say 55 - 40 percent.
Sen. Santorum's views on issues are in the mainstream, 48 percent of voters say, while 34
percent, including 20 percent of Republicans, say they are extreme.
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Casey's views are mainstream, 59 percent of voters say, while 10 percent say they are
extreme.
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Santorum has been a "great" or "good" Senator, 37 percent of voters say, while 57 percent
say he has been "so-so" or "bad." He has a split 43 - 42 percent approval rating, tying his all-
time low.
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Voters give Casey a 34 - 6 percent favorability rating, with 22 percent mixed and 38
percent who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
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Santorum gets a 31 - 29 percent favorability rating, with 22 percent mixed and 17 percent
who haven't heard enough to form an opinion.
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From January 31 - February 6, Quinnipiac University surveyed 1,661 Pennsylvania voters
with a margin of error of +/- 2.4 percentage points.
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The Quinnipiac University Poll, directed by Douglas Schwartz, Ph.D., conducts public opinion
surveys in Pennsylvania, New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, Florida and the nation as a public
service and for research.
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For additional data-www.quinnipiac.edu and quicklinks
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3. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job as
United States Senator?
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Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Approve 56% 57% 57% 55% 57% 56%
Disapprove 32 33 31 32 33 31
DK/NA 12 10 11 14 10 14
Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central
Approve 60% 47% 64% 58% 51% 54% 57%
Disapprove 24 41 28 33 37 32 30
DK/NA 16 12 8 9 12 14 13
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TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Arlen Specter is handling his job
as United States Senator? (* Also hit 60% on 5/22/2003 & 2/21/2003)
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Highest Lowest
Approve Approve
Feb 13 Dec 13 Oct 6 Jul 13 Apr 20 Jul 13 Apr 22
2006 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005* 2004
Approve 56 57 57 60 53 60 47
Disapprove 32 31 32 30 33 30 36
DK/NA 12 11 12 10 13 10 17
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4. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Santorum is handling his job as
United States Senator?
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Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Approve 43% 66% 24% 38% 43% 43%
Disapprove 42 21 59 46 43 42
DK/NA 15 13 16 15 14 16
Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central
Approve 33% 31% 49% 35% 51% 46% 51%
Disapprove 58 49 36 47 34 40 36
DK/NA 9 20 15 18 16 14 14
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TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way Rick Santorum is handling his job
as United States Senator? (* Also hit 56% on 8/7/2003 and 2/21/2003)
(** Also hit 43% on 10/6/2005)
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Highest Lowest
Approve Approve
Feb 13 Dec 13 Oct 6 Jul 13 Apr 20 Dec 17 Feb 13
2006 2005 2005 2005 2005 2003* 2006 **
Approve 43 48 43 51 48 56 43
Disapprove 42 38 41 35 35 29 42
DK/NA 15 14 16 14 18 15 15
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5. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job
as President?
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Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Approve 37% 72% 10% 34% 40% 35%
Disapprove 59 24 88 59 56 61
DK/NA 4 4 2 6 4 4
Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central
Approve 32% 13% 41% 32% 46% 47% 46%
Disapprove 61 81 57 64 48 49 51
DK/NA 7 6 2 4 5 4 3
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TREND: Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling his job
as President? (* Also hit 37% on 10/6/2005)
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Highest Lowest
Approve Approve
Feb 13 Dec 13 Oct 6 Jul 13 Apr 20 Jun 5 Feb 13
2006 2005 2005 2005 2005 2002 2006 *
Approve 37 38 37 44 43 73 37
Disapprove 59 59 61 53 53 21 59
DK/NA 4 3 3 3 4 6 4
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15. Is your opinion of United States Senator Rick Santorum favorable, unfavorable,
mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
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Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Favorable 31% 54% 12% 28% 35% 28%
Unfavorable 29 12 44 30 32 27
Mixed 22 23 21 22 18 25
Hvn't hrd enough 17 10 21 19 14 20
REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 -
Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central
Favorable 21% 15% 41% 27% 39% 36% 37%
Unfavorable 45 33 25 33 20 30 22
Mixed 25 22 16 22 19 25 23
Hvn't hrd enough 9 26 18 17 22 10 17
REFUSED - 2 - - - - 1
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TREND: Is your opinion of United States Senator Rick Santorum favorable,
unfavorable, mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
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Feb 13 Dec 13 Oct 6 Jul 13 Apr 20 Feb 16 Oct 15
2006 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2003
Favorable 31 35 33 37 36 41 44
Unfavorable 29 28 30 27 25 24 24
Mixed 22 21 19 17 20 17 18
Haven't heard enough 17 14 18 19 19 16 14
REFUSED 1 - 1 1 1 1 -
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16. Is your opinion of State Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. favorable, unfavorable,
mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
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Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Favorable 34% 27% 40% 35% 33% 35%
Unfavorable 6 9 3 6 7 5
Mixed 22 25 20 21 23 21
Hvn't hrd enough 38 39 37 38 37 39
REFUSED - - 1 - 1 -
Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central
Favorable 39% 26% 35% 30% 34% 35% 38%
Unfavorable 3 4 9 7 4 3 7
Mixed 25 21 17 24 24 21 21
Hvn't hrd enough 32 48 39 38 38 41 34
REFUSED 1 1 - 1 - - -
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TREND: Is your opinion of State Treasurer Bob Casey Jr. favorable, unfavorable,
mixed, or haven't you heard enough about him?
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Feb 13 Dec 13 Oct 6 Jul 13 Apr 20 Feb 16
2006 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005
Favorable 34 40 38 39 40 41
Unfavorable 6 6 9 9 6 8
Mixed 22 18 20 17 15 18
Haven't heard enough 38 34 33 36 38 31
REFUSED - 1 1 1 1 1
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17. If the 2006 election for Senator were being held today, and the candidates
were Bob Casey Jr. the Democrat and Rick Santorum the Republican for whom would
you vote?
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Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Casey 51% 21% 80% 52% 49% 53%
Santorum 36 70 12 29 38 35
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 - 1 1 2 -
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 1 1 3 1 2
DK/NA 10 8 7 15 10 10
Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central
Casey 62% 67% 48% 51% 48% 51% 41%
Santorum 28 20 41 32 37 40 47
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 2 2 3 - - - 1
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) - 2 2 4 3 - 1
DK/NA 9 9 6 13 11 9 10
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TREND: If the 2006 election for Senator were being held today and the candidates
were Bob Casey Jr. the Democrat and Rick Santorum the Republican, for whom would
you vote?
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Feb 13 Dec 13 Oct 6 Jul 13 Apr 20 Feb 16
2006 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005
Bob Casey, Jr. 51 50 52 50 49 46
Rick Santorum 36 38 34 39 35 41
SMONE ELSE 1 1 1 - 1 1
WLDN'T VOTE 2 2 2 1 1 1
DK/NA 10 10 11 11 13 11
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18. Looking ahead to the 2006 election for United States Senator, do you feel
that Rick Santorum deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not
deserve to be reelected?
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Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Deserves reelection 41% 68% 22% 33% 43% 39%
Does not 44 21 63 47 44 43
DK/NA 15 10 15 20 13 17
Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central
Deserves reelection 30% 27% 44% 38% 46% 45% 50%
Does not 57 52 41 45 37 41 37
DK/NA 13 21 15 17 17 14 13
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TREND: Looking ahead to the 2006 election for United States Senator, do you feel
that Rick Santorum deserves to be reelected, or do you feel that he does not
deserve to be reelected?
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Feb 13 Dec 13 Oct 6 Jul 13 Apr 20 Feb 16
2006 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005
Deserves reelection 41 45 41 45 44 53
Does not 44 40 42 38 37 30
DK/NA 15 14 17 17 19 17
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19. How would you rate Rick Santorum as a United States Senator? Has he been
a great senator, a good senator, a so-so senator or a bad senator?
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Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Great 6% 15% 0% 4% 7% 6%
Good 31 46 18 27 31 30
So-so 37 29 43 42 34 40
Bad 20 6 33 22 23 18
DK/NA 5 4 6 5 5 6
Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central
Great 7% 3% 8% 6% 6% 9% 6%
Good 23 15 34 28 36 31 39
So-so 38 52 31 37 39 38 32
Bad 31 24 20 23 15 17 16
DK/NA 1 6 7 6 5 4 6
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TREND: How would you rate Rick Santorum as a United States Senator? Has he been
a great senator, a good senator, a so-so senator or a bad senator?
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Feb 13 Dec 13
2006 2005
Great 6 6
Good 31 34
So-so 37 37
Bad 20 16
DK/NA 5 6
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20. In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in
Pennsylvania today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat
dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
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Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Very satisfied 4% 4% 4% 5% 4% 5%
Smwht satisfied 49 50 54 48 48 51
Smwht dissatisfied 30 31 27 32 33 27
Very dissatisfied 15 15 13 15 14 16
DK/NA 1 1 2 1 1 1
Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central
Very satisfied 4% 4% 5% 8% 2% 3% 4%
Smwht satisfied 37 50 54 62 38 42 50
Smwht dissatisfied 38 24 26 23 42 36 29
Very dissatisfied 18 21 14 6 17 17 16
DK/NA 3 1 1 2 - 2 1
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TREND: In general, how satisfied are you with the way things are going in
Pennsylvania today? Are you very satisfied, somewhat satisfied, somewhat
dissatisfied, or very dissatisfied?
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Feb 13 Dec 8 Oct 5 Jul 14 Apr 21 Feb 17 Jul 13
2006 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005 2004
Very satisfied 4 4 4 4 4 4 5
Smwht satisfied 49 50 42 48 49 52 51
Smwht dissatisfied 30 33 33 32 30 28 29
Very dissatisifed 15 13 20 15 15 15 14
DK/NA 1 1 1 1 1 1 1
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21. What do you think is the most important problem facing Pennsylvania today?
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Tot
Economy Total 27%
Economy general 4
Unemployment/jobs 19
Minimum wage too low 2
Businesses leaving/
Outsourcing 2
Taxes Total 20%
Taxes general 10
Property tax 10
Healthcare Total 8%
Healthcare/Costs/
Insurance/HMO's 6
Medicare 1
Prescription costs 1
Politicians Total 6%
Politicians/
Campaigns general 2
Political corruption 1
Governor/State
leadership 3
Crime/Violence Total 5%
Crime/Violence general 4
Drugs 1
Education Total 5%
Education general 3
Funding education 2
Budget Total 2%
Budget general 1
Budget priorities 1
Energy Costs Total 2%
Energy costs general 1
Gas prices 1
Casinos/Gambling 2
Environment/Pollution 1
Medical malpractice 1
Poor condition of
roads/highways 1
Poverty/Homeless 1
Senior issues 1
Terrorism general 1
War (Iraq) 1
Welfare 1
Other 5
DK/NA 8
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22. Do you think Rick Santorum is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
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Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Too liberal 9% 10% 9% 7% 9% 9%
Too conservative 31 15 45 33 34 29
About right 40 60 24 39 41 39
DK/NA 20 15 22 21 16 23
Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central
Too liberal 14% 9% 12% 6% 10% 5% 10%
Too conservative 39 35 26 43 19 31 23
About right 31 36 38 32 46 45 49
DK/NA 16 20 24 19 25 19 18
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TREND: Do you think Rick Santorum is too liberal, too conservative, or about
right?
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Feb 13 Dec 13 Oct 6 Jul 13 Apr 20 Feb 16
2006 2005 2005 2005 2005 2005
Too liberal 9 8 9 6 8 7
Too conservative 31 29 29 29 25 25
About right 40 45 40 44 44 44
DK/NA 20 17 22 20 24 25
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23. Do you think Bob Casey Jr. is too liberal, too conservative, or about right?
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Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Too liberal 11% 22% 4% 9% 13% 10%
Too conservative 7 3 12 7 8 6
About right 49 37 58 50 50 48
DK/NA 32 38 26 34 28 36
Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central
Too liberal 11% 9% 13% 10% 11% 9% 15%
Too conservative 8 13 6 9 8 4 5
About right 50 48 54 47 47 48 50
DK/NA 31 30 28 35 34 39 30
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TREND: Do you think Bob Casey Jr. is too liberal, too conservative, or about
right?
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Feb 13 Dec 13
2006 2005
Too liberal 11 15
Too conservative 7 7
About Right 49 51
DK/NA 32 27
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24. Would you say that Rick Santorum's views on the issues are in the mainstream
or are they extreme?
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Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Mainstream 48% 67% 33% 45% 51% 45%
Extreme 34 20 48 36 35 34
DK/NA 17 13 19 19 14 21
Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central
Mainstream 37% 37% 54% 42% 53% 55% 55%
Extreme 53 42 30 40 27 28 25
DK/NA 11 20 16 17 21 16 19
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TREND: Would you say that Rick Santorum's views on the issues are in the
mainstream or are they extreme?
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Feb 13 Dec 13
2006 2005
Mainstream 48 49
Extreme 34 35
DK/NA 17 16
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25. Would you say that Bob Casey Jr.'s views on the issues are in the mainstream
or are they extreme?
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Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Mainstream 59% 52% 67% 56% 60% 57%
Extreme 10 12 8 11 10 9
DK/NA 32 37 25 33 30 33
Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central
Mainstream 64% 63% 64% 57% 60% 48% 57%
Extreme 9 10 10 10 7 10 11
DK/NA 27 27 27 33 34 42 32
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TREND: Would you say that Bob Casey Jr.'s views on the issues are in the
mainstream or are they extreme?
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Feb 13 Dec 13
2006 2005
Mainstream 59 57
Extreme 10 13
DK/NA 32 30
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26. Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases,
illegal in most cases or illegal in all cases?
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Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Legal all cases 17% 8% 25% 17% 13% 20%
Legal most cases 36 29 39 43 38 33
Illegal most cases 25 37 16 22 28 23
Illegal all cases 16 22 14 10 13 18
DK/NA 6 4 6 8 8 5
Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central
Legal all cases 11% 26% 18% 25% 12% 13% 12%
Legal most cases 38 32 30 45 35 28 35
Illegal most cases 26 18 27 18 29 27 32
Illegal all cases 16 19 18 7 16 22 16
DK/NA 8 6 7 5 8 9 5
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TREND: Do you think abortion should be legal in all cases, legal in most cases,
illegal in most cases or illegal in all cases?
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Feb 13 Dec 13 Jul 13 Apr 20 Mar 18 Jun 5
2006 2005 2005 2005 2003 2002
Legal all 17 18 16 16 23 21
Legal Most 36 35 37 33 32 32
Illegal Most 25 26 27 26 24 24
Illegal All 16 16 14 18 17 15
DK/NA 6 5 7 7 4 8
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33. Do you approve or disapprove of the way George W. Bush is handling the
situation with Iraq?
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Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Approve 37% 68% 10% 34% 40% 34%
Disapprove 60 27 87 62 57 62
DK/NA 3 4 3 3 3 4
Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central
Approve 33% 12% 41% 29% 46% 48% 45%
Disapprove 65 84 59 69 45 47 51
DK/NA 1 4 - 2 9 4 4
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34. Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States
to do or the wrong thing?
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Tot Rep Dem Ind Men Wom
Right thing 40% 70% 16% 36% 43% 37%
Wrong thing 55 26 81 57 53 57
DK/NA 4 4 3 6 3 5
Alghny Philly NthEst SthEst NthWst SthWst Central
Right thing 34% 18% 50% 32% 51% 52% 46%
Wrong thing 64 78 49 62 42 43 49
DK/NA 2 4 1 5 7 5 5
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TREND: Do you think going to war with Iraq was the right thing for the United States
to do or the wrong thing?
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Feb 13 Dec 13 Oct 6 Oct 28 Oct 22 Oct 12 Sep 28
2006 2005 2005 2004 2004 2004 2004
Right thing 40 40 37 48 45 45 43
Wrong thing 55 55 57 45 48 48 49
DK/NA 4 5 6 7 8 7 8
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35. (If Registered Democrat)If the 2006 Democratic primary for United States
Senator were being held today and the candidates were Bob Casey Jr. and
Chuck Pennacchio for whom would you vote?
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REGISTERED DEMOCRATS
Tot Men Wom
Casey 70% 77% 65%
Pennacchio 5 6 5
SMONE ELSE(VOL) 1 1 2
WLDN'T VOTE(VOL) 2 4 1
DK/NA 21 13 27
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