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Jim's predictions for the week!!

DISCLAIMER:These weekly predictions are just for fun(although I may be right from time to time) DISCLAIMER:I am not a meteorologist,I am not a forecaster,forecasters have degrees.I check satellite,Models & upper air flows to make my decisions ,basically throwing the dice. Sometimes I may notice something the forecast models do not pick up on. For official advisories and forecast's go to The National hurricane center.
Updated every Monday.(Times may vary).
Accuracy basis per week=0%=a storm forms a day or two after saying no development or completely off on every aspect of current system for the week & something else forms I did not predictor nothing forms & I predicted a named storm---30%= may get 1 thing right such as strength, but way wrong on direction & or time of landfall.---50%= after predicting no development a storm forms on the 5th day of period or I am right on strength & off on movement or visa versa---70%=after predicting no development a storm forms on 6th day of forecast or everything right except strength & or a bit off of movement of system.---100%= I predict no development & nothing happens or I predict everything pretty accurate except for just off on movement give or take 100 miles off or so..
WEEK#1=(no predictions....#2=....#3=....#4=....#5=....#6=...#7=...#8=...#9=...#10=...#11=...#12=...#13=...#14=...#15=...#16=...#17=...#18=...#19=...#20=...#21=...#22...#23=..#24=...#25=...#26=...For the year final=
Season accuracy after completion of the 2001 Hurricane season 62.77%
Season accuracy after the 2002 Hurricane season 75.20%
Season accuracy after the 2003 Hurricane season 53.20%
Season accuracy after the 2004 Hurricane season 68.87%
Season accuracy after the 2005 season 51.56%

After starting the season very busy with both hurricane & personal obligations, I can finally do my weekly predictions now that Alberto is out of the way.For the remainder of this week (June 13th through June 18th) I will start with Alberto currently moving into Georgia. I expect Alberto to remain onshore the US East coast until exiting near Virginia bch.In a weakened state this extratropical low will begin moving ENE towards Newfoundland. I expect extratropical storm Alberto to hit there with 50mph winds while racing ENE. Now onto the rest of the tropics starting with the East Atlantic. As usual this time of year,I never expect to see anything to develop this far out this early. There is a nice wave located near 35W moving generally west. Another wave is near 20w also moving west & would most likely develop if this were August or Sept. As was the case last year, there is quite a bit of dry air affecting the ITCZI so any development out there is highly unlikey. Could they have potential in the Caribbean? I am not confident for either wave as Alberto exits to the North the ridging & troughing left behind should leave unfavorable conditions near the caribbean. Overall this weeek I expect no named storms except for Alberto's exit stage right.
I made my top 20 picks for 2006 on my june 1st Hurricane season kickoff show, the recorded version is approx 3 hrs long & requires a subscription.
Last year 2005 was my best year ever of picking my cities at highest risk,below are my picks for 2006. Yellow will indicate as being hit.

In both 2003 & 2004 Jim picked 4 out of the top 5 locations that were affected by tropical systems.In 2005 it was two of the top five areas with Mississippi hit by Katrina and Punta Allen Mexico by Emily.(yellow indicates areas affected that jim picked before the season started) The picks below for 2006 are based a formula of the amount of named storms expected and cities overdue in the hurricanecity database. The cities & Islandsin the database that are overdue or due for a T-Storm or Hurricane and areas hit by systems 2 or more years in a row. If a Hurricane & or T-Storm comes within 70 Miles to the left or or 50 miles to the right or south of any one of these areas this season,consider it a hit. Since 2003 Jim Williams has picked the Number one city to be hit. This past year three cities in Mississippi reached the criteria to be hit,so Mississippi was picked #1 for 2005. On June 1st of each Hurricane season Jim makes his picks,watch this portion of this years show from June 1st 2006 click here ....subscription required

Picks for the 2006 season

VERY HIGH THREAT....... Vero beach,Fla .... Pascagoula,MS .... Sable Island NS ....Mobile,AL....Cape Hatteras NC ....
HIGH THREAT......Antigua ....Acklins Isl BAH.... St Lucia ....Morehead city NC ... Dominica ....
MODERATE THREAT.....Savannah GA....Boston MA ...Hilton head Isl SC .....Gulfport MS....Destin FL....Manzanillo Cuba....Ft Walton bch,FL....Gulf Shores AL....Boynton bch FL....Cienfuegos Cuba....
UNEXPLAINABLE..... Panama city FL
Ticking timebombs.....St Johns NF....Cedar Key FL....Edisto SC....St Augustine FL....Tampa FL

If you have a comment or question about my predictions or about hurricanes,post it here
During this week back in?


24 hour AVN model
current upper level winds
48 hour atlantic AVN model
upper level winds in 48 hrs
MRF model up to 11days,SW Atl basin
NASA experimental model
ECMWF Euorpean model(unisys)
ECMWF model animated

Current & past winds at all levels
Animated versions of gfs,cmc,nogaps,gfdl,wrf
Animated versions of cmc,gfs,gfdl,nogaps,ukmet
Scatterometer surface winds
Gary Gray's Trantech Model discussion
forecaster Derek Ortt's opinions on the current storm
Crown Weather services Graphical model layouts
African dust animation

Gulf of Mexico ship & buoy data
(MAP)Buoy data

Ocean pressures from sailwx.info
Get observations from Caribbean Islands & Mexico here
Waves coming off of Africa
weather Observations of waves in africa
closeup satelites of waves in Africa


sea surface temperatures(global daily)
Great atlantic water temp map from weatherunderground
Naval temp map with satelite overlay
Easier to read water temp maps from TPC(although not updated as often as above link)
Here you can run animated historical water temps for the Atlantic basin from USF.
Oceanic heat content for atlantic basin(rsmas Miami)
World ocean temperature anomalies over the past 12 weeks
Wave forecast's for western Atlantic basin
Expected high tides for areas affected by tropical systems listed in alphabetical order
Naval map of wave heights
Color enhanced vapor loop
moving vapor loops from CIMSS

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