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CHINA AND THE
US
PART 2: The challenge of
unilateralism
US unilateralism did not start
with the Bush administration. Its moralistic roots
lie in US foreign policy after World War II,
especially over policy on China. At its most
dangerous, unilateralist policy undermines the
regime of nuclear non-proliferation. (Jun 30,
'06)
CHINA AND THE US
The
lame duck and the greenhorn
While George W Bush struggles
to keep his administration, and the fortunes of
the Republican Party, from imploding, his
counterpart in China is still learning how to cope
as the leader of a rising great power. China and
the US have always had a tense relationship, but
it is one they cannot avoid, whatever their
leaders' personal difficulties. (Jun 22,
'06)
America's
untested management team
The US
Treasury has not been performing at its best in
the past six years. Enter Hank "the Hammer"
Paulson, fresh from Goldman Sachs, ready to tackle
the challenges facing the world's biggest economy.
He will find that the greatest of those challenges
lie not in Beijing, Moscow or Caracas, but at home
in the US. (Jun 16, '06)
| Henry C K Liu was born in
Hong Kong and educated at Harvard University,
US, in architecture and urban design. His
interest in economics and international
relations started when he participated in
interdisciplinary work on urban and regional
development as a professor at the University of
California Los Angeles, Harvard and Columbia. He
is currently chairman of a New York-based
private investment
group. |
THE WAGES OF
NEO-LIBERALISM
PART 3:
China's internal debt
problem
China's
fiscal policy has begun a gradual shift from
"proactive" to "prudent". Beijing now urgently needs to
deal with pressing economic and social problems
that have been created by its transition from
a socialist planned economy to a "socialist"
market economy. One key factor is how to handle
the national debt in a system dominated by US
dollar hegemony. (May 26,
'06)
THE WAGES OF
NEO-LIBERALISM
PART 2:
The US-China trade
imbalance
A rising US trade deficit with China
has generated much heat but little light about
unfair Chinese trade practices. The real danger to
the US economy is that the US sovereign debt
rating is now dependent on the soundness of
Chinese sovereign debt - in other words, on
China's credit rating. (Mar 31,
'06)
THE WAGES OF
NEO-LIBERALISM
PART
1: Core contradictions
Despite all
evidence, the US in particular continues to delude
itself that fair exchange rates, especially for
the Chinese yuan, would solve economic ills. But
Western exchange-rate policies have long been part
of the problem; what economies worldwide should be
floating is wages, not exchange rates. (Mar 21,
'06)
 PART
4
Toward living wages
in the
modern era
The idea of a global labor cartel is
based on the needs of a modern economy for
managing consumer demand to overcome structural
overcapacity, which globalization has made a
worldwide problem. The rules of economic democracy
mandate that capital in a modern economy is formed
from the savings of labor, which in turn depends
on rising wages. (Mar 8,
'06)
THE WIZARD OF
BUBBLELAND
PART 4: Global money and currency
markets
Any notion that money is not available, or that it
may not be available at any price, only raises
alarm to panic and enhances panic to madness, with
a total loss of confidence. Yet the acceptance
of loans at abnormally high interest rates is
itself a sign of panic. Against such contradictions,
no central bank - including the Fed under
Alan Greenspan - has found the appropriate wisdom.
(Feb 15,
'06)
Of debt, deflation and rotten apples
The US and
Japanese economies have both been ailing for a
long time, with different symptoms of the same
disease. While the latter struggles with
deflation, in the US the trade apple is kept
shining on the outside by sucking nutrients from a
slowly depleting, rotting core, eaten away by a
growing debt worm, turning a sick economy into a
terminal case. (Jan 10,
'06)
Superpower
vulnerability
It is simplistic to blame America's crusade of
moral imperialism on the neo-conservative cabal
that currently dictates US foreign policy. The
scene was set long before their rise to power, and
the harsh (and still unlearned) lessons of
the futility of forcing a set of mores on others
can be seen throughout history.
The real oil
crisis
As
all oil money returns to the US anyway because of
the unabated appetite for dollar assets, $50 oil
will buy the US debt bubble a little more time. The
key issue of the coming oil crisis is
ballooning equity prices unsupported by earnings. We
are heading toward a replay of the '80s, when
a widening trade deficit and a precipitous fall
of the dollar triggered the 1987 collapse of
the equity markets. (May 25,
'05)
Hong Kong appeal court in
the dock
The
Hong Kong Court of Final Appeal thinks it can rule
on constitutional issues of sovereignty and
overrule China's parliament, grossly
misinterpreting the territory's "high degree of
autonomy" bestowed by Beijing to mean independent
sovereignty.(May
13, '05)
Nationalists, communists mending
fences
For the first time in more
than 50 years of estrangement from the Chinese
Communist Party, the Taiwan-exile Kuomintang Party
has sent a delegation to mainland China. This is
an examination of the history
of the historical break, and signs of
reconciliation. (Apr 4, '05)
The glorious role of Tung
Chee-hwa
History will judge that Tung
Chee-hwa, who retired because of failing health -
not political banishment - was never part of the
problem, but part of the solution. The day will come
when Hong Kong longs for a leader as kind, gentle
and accommodating as Tung, his glorious place
assured in Chinese history. (Mar 22,
'05)
Looking after the little man
The US has evolved into a superpower in the course of two world wars and will
remain one for the foreseeable future. As such it has earned the privileges
associated with the instinctive prerogative of a tough big guy. But the
complete American character requires the US to champion the defenseless little
guys of the world as well. (Sep 16, '04)
A poisonous geopolitical jungle
An iron rule of terrorism is that what goes around, comes
around from geopolitical blowback. One cannot exterminate terrorism any more
than mosquitoes, except by reordering the ecosystem. Despite shining examples
of this lesson being ignored - with dire results - in the Middle East, the US
remains unbending in its geopolitical goals. (Sep
14, '04)
Geopolitical weeds in cradle
of civilization
Since the modern Iraqi state was the artificial product of
Western geopolitical maneuvers in the cradle of civilization during the age of
European imperialism, Iraq's full geopolitical spectrum has always included
Pan-Arabism beyond narrow state interests. This was overlooked when the US
decided to topple Saddam Hussein. This is the second part of an on-going
series. (Sep 2, '04)
Geopolitics in Iraq an old game
The Americans are not the only ones to have had a
tough time of it in Iraq. Neither the Persians nor the Ottomans could keep the
population effectively in check, and the British occupiers also failed. Iraq's
troubled history goes back centuries, and its echoes resound forcefully today.
(Aug 17, '04)
Occupation
highlights superpower limits
Sunnis in Iraq and the region are torn between their fear of a rise of the
Shi'ites in Iraq and their commitment to Arab nationalism stimulated by foreign
occupation. Neither option has any room for US superpower dominance.
(Apr 19, '04)
MAO AND LINCOLN
Part
1: Demon and deity
While vilifying Mao Zedong, the neo-liberal West has idolized Abraham Lincoln.
Unlike Lincoln, Mao is not given credit in the West as a revolutionary of noble
principles who fought for equality using all necessary means. Yet Lincoln's
assault on due process was more violent than Mao's. (Mar
30, '04)
MAO AND LINCOLN
Part 2: Great Leap Forward
not all bad
Mao Zedong has been vilified over the Great Leap Forward, but 30
million people did not die. The numbers are wildly exaggerated, and Henry C
K Liu argues that many deaths were caused
by cyclical famine and a US embargo on grain imports.
Today, globalization causes greater suffering.
(Mar 31, '04)
REALPOLITIK AND BUSH'S REVOLUTION
Part 1: The Philippines revisited
George W Bush early this month sought to justify his
country's bloody and costly occupation of Iraq as part of a proactive "global
democratic revolution". Shortly thereafter, Bush visited a country still paying
the price for a failed US policy of imposed democracy: the Philippines.
(Nov 18, '03)
REALPOLITIK
AND BUSH'S REVOLUTION
Part
2: Flawed visions of democracy
George W Bush has built his new policy
of world democratic revolution on the assumption that democracy in foreign
lands would automatically welcome US imperialism in the name of capitalistic
free trade. We see now that not only can democracy not be easily imposed from
outside, even if it does take root it may well flower in ways detrimental to US
interests. (Nov 19, '03)
The
Election Cycle Theory and the Fed
 US
stock market moves, some suggest, follow the
four-year US presidential election cycle, with
stocks declining or rising depending on how the
Federal Reserve reacts to political expediency and
perceived, or imposed, economic necessity. A look at the history of this theory and how it might affect the
2004 campaign. (Feb 23, '04)
Fed's
pugnacious policies hurt economies
United States Federal Reserve chief Alan Greenspan denies that Washington's
policies caused the crash of 1987 and helped create the later "irrational
exuberance" and economic bubble that burst, damaging US, Asian and other
national economies. Meanwhile, there's the issue of the vaunted stock market
"recovery" of last year that was - and is - fiction.
(Jan 9, '04)
The war that could destroy both
armies
In April, a letter to the editor of Asia Times Online
critical of a Henry C K Liu article predicting that the Iraq war could "end the
age of superpower" suggested: "Reread his article six months from now as a test
of his ability to prognosticate." Six months have passed, and Liu takes another
look at the challenges facing the US military.
(Oct 22, '03)
How Turkey's goose was cooked
While in Turkey recently for the seventh International Conference on Economics,
Henry C K Liu had occasion to see the effects of that country's
adherence to neo-liberal market fundamentalism under the rules imposed by
foreign agencies. (Sep 15, '03)
America's selective
strong dollar policy
Since the start of 2002, the US dollar
has fallen as much as 30 percent from its peak against the euro, and has also
declined against other key currencies, but the current US administration still
officially maintains a long-term strong-dollar policy. Henry C K Liu examines
the sustainability of this policy in the light of neo-imperialist dollar
hegemony. (Aug 13, '03)
Realism finds new champions
In the wake of protests in Hong Kong against a proposed anti-subversion law, US
observers are suddenly exhibiting neutral respect for historical facts about
the territory, and are at the same time adopting a pragmatic view of Taiwan's
relations with the mainland. Henry C K Liu doubts Hong Kong
Democrats, or pro-independence Taiwanese politicians, will follow suit.
(Jul 30, '03)
Why Hong Kong is in crisis
This week, on the sixth anniversary of
Hong Kong's establishment as a special administrative region of China, half a
million of its people took to the streets in a clear illustration of the
serious disconnect between the territory's government and the governed. While
the protest was billed as being against Hong Kong's proposed security law, the
most heartfelt discontent is rooted elsewhere. (Jul
3, '03)
War that may end the age of superpower
The Iraq war will end from its own inevitable evolution. And it will not be a
happy end. There is yet no discernible exit strategy for the US. After this
war, the world will have no superpower, albeit the US will remain strong both
economically and militarily. But the US will be forced to learn to be much more
cautious, and more realistic, about its ability to impose its will on other
nations through overwhelming force. (Apr 4, '03)
Power and the new world order
Thomas Friedman, the Pulitzer-winning voice of US neo-liberalism, has rapped
China for not getting on board with US foreign policy. But why should it?
Indeed, why should any nation-state be a cheerleader for a World of Order that
exists primarily for the economic benefit of a single entity - the United
States of America? (Feb 24, '03)
Building
on the lessons of history
As New York City prepares to memorialize the
September 11 tragedy on the site of the destroyed World Trade Center, other
great - and not so great - architectural projects may serve as lessons. In the
conclusion of a two-part analysis of the WTC project, Henry C K Liu offers an
historic guide. (Feb 12, '03)
The
towering challenge of the WTC project
The vitality and resourcefulness that allowed New Yorkers to move on
from the tragedy of September 11 are being tested as the city plans how to
replace the twin towers of the World Trade Center. Henry C K Liu examines the
project's enormous challenges in a two-part series. (Feb
11, '03)
War
and the military-industrial complex
After World War II, the role of defense spending in the US
shifted from domestic economic stimulant to global geopolitical weapon. But
while Ronald Reagan successfully used Star Wars to bankrupt the USSR, the
nature of armaments has fundamentally changed with the arrival of biological
and chemical weapons. Terrorism can only be fought with the removal of
injustice, not by developing anti-missile defense shields and smart
bombs. (Jan 30, '03)
The
Bush plan: Global-scale disappointment
The world is at a very dangerous moment caused by violent
political fallouts from the destructive economic impacts of neo-liberal trade
globalization. All wait for the president of the United States to command the
awesome power of his office to "think big" and lead the world to economic
recovery. Instead, we are given the Bush "growth and jobs" proposal, which
merely reinvokes dated supply-side theories and further enriches the rich.
(Jan 9, '03)
US
on Hong Kong: Calling the kettle black
A leading US newspaper has deplored "Hong
Kong's current drive to enact insidious security legislation that threatens its
people's freedoms", and George W Bush has reportedly phoned Jiang Zemin to
express concern over Hong Kong's proposed national security law. That would be
the same George Bush who signed into law the draconian USA Patriot Act. (Jan
2, '03)
Reaganite
moralists and Hong Kong security
The Project for the New American Century has released an open letter
to George W Bush calling for official US opposition to proposed new national
security laws in Hong Kong. Henry C K Liu examines PNAC - a who's who of the US
political right - and whether its anti-China stance needs to be taken
seriously. (Dec 6, '02)
Hong
Kong pegged to a failed policy
Since its establishment at the start of the Asian financial
crisis, the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region has operated on a
single-note monetary policy: that of defending its currency's peg to the US
dollar. While the SAR's economy plummets, the peg paralyzes all new policy
initiatives. (Oct 15, '02)
Crippling
debt and bankrupt solutions
A movement to tackle distressed sovereign dollar debts through an international
bankruptcy regime has gained momentum in neo-liberal circles. But the proposals
favored by creditors focus on the wrong models in bankruptcy law, and would
serve to enslave debtor nations further while leaving the global economic
system at risk. What is needed is a debtors' revolt. (Sep
27, '02)
The
economics of a global empire
To find the true source of an empire in today's world, take a page from
Watergate lore and simply "follow the money". The trail leads to the world's
low-wage exporting nations - notably China - which unwittingly spent the past
20 years funding the US hegemony that they now deplore.
(Aug 13, '02)
China vs the almighty dollar
Global capitalism is the tool by which
world economies are kept subservient to the United States economy through
dollar hegemony. Asia, in order to service its dollar-denominated debts, is
thus forced to keep wages low and provide Americans with cheap imports. But
China is now in a position to change this state of affairs.
(Jul 22, '02)
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