CQPolitics.com
Colorado Roundup: 5th District No Longer Safe for GOP

As Election Day nears, CQPolitics.com will periodically provide roundups of the key House races in individual states, highlighting major developments in the contests.

The following is an update of general election contests in Colorado.

Breaking News

• Colorado’s 5th District (Rating change). Several House districts that usually are Republican strongholds are unexpectedly subject to serious Democratic Party challenges this year. Most of these involve a political or personal scandal involving the Republican incumbent.

That, however, is not the GOP’s problem in the contest in Colorado’s 5th District, on which CQPolitics.com has changed its ratings to Republican Favored from Safe Republican.

Rather, it is serious resentment engendered by their nominee, state Sen. Doug Lamborn, during his hard-hitting campaign for the Aug. 8 primary that has made the open-seat race less than a slam dunk for the Republicans in the overwhelmingly conservative 5th — a south-central Colorado district (including Colorado Springs), where President Bush took 66 percent of the vote in 2004.

In the Aug. 8 primary, Lamborn finished first in a six-candidate Republican field, edging out Jeff Crank, a former top aide to retiring 10-term Republican Rep. Joel Hefley. Lamborn went negative on Crank, with backup assistance from the conservative national group the Club for Growth, which endorsed Lamborn.

There would be no unity rally in the wake of the primary. Lamborn’s campaign so angered Hefley that he has refused to endorse the nominee, and was even reported to have briefly considered backing Democratic nominee Jay Fawcett, a retired Air Force lieutenant colonel who served in the 1990-91 Iraq war.

Though it is rare for a retiring House member to refuse to endorse his own party’s nominee, it likely will take much more than an irreconciled incumbent to thrust the Democrats into a highly competitive position in the 5th. Along with Bush’s landslide numbers in the district, Hefley took 71 percent in 2004, and received at least 66 percent in each of his 10 House general elections. And Lamborn, despite the hostility he is receiving from some Republican quarters, holds views on issues that are not substantially different from those of the conservative Hefley.

Nonetheless, Democrats have a credible candidate in Fawcett, a graduate of the Air Force Academy, located in Colorado Springs. Pennsylvania Democratic Rep. John P. Murtha — an outspoken critic of the Bush administration’s strategy in the current Iraq war and a possible candidate for majority leader if the Democrats win control of the House this year — recently campaigned for Fawcett.

The pre-primary reports filed with the Federal Election Commission showed that Lamborn had outdone Fawcett in total receipts, $411,000 to $196,000, as of July 19. But because Lamborn had to spent much more on his primary campaign — Fawcett was unopposed for his nomination — they were much closer at the time in remaining cash: $70,000 for the Republican to $65,000 for the Democrat. New figures including activity in the year’s third quarter, which ended Saturday, must be filed by Oct. 15.

Competitive Race Updates

• Colorado’s 7th District. The 7th, in suburban Denver, is one of the nation’s premier partisan swing districts: In 2004, its voters went for Democrat John Kerry over President Bush by 51 percent to 48 percent, while giving 55 percent and a second term to Republican Rep. Bob Beauprez (who two years earlier had won an open-seat race by just 121 votes, or a tenth of 1 percentage points).

With Beauprez this year running for governor, the seat is once again open — and once again producing one of the most hotly contested House races, between Democrat Ed Perlmutter, a former state senator, and Republican Rick O’Donnell, a former Cabinet member to GOP Gov. Bill Owens.

Perlmutter’s campaign has focused on the issues of Social Security, Iraq and his support for embryonic stem cell research.

Earlier in the campaign, Democrats unearthed an essay O’Donnell wrote more than a decade ago, at age 24, in which he described Social Security as a failure. Democrats have used this to try to tie O’Donnell to a controversial Bush administration initiative to allow individuals to manage some of their Social Security payroll tax dollars in private accounts — which the Democrats label as “privatization.”

“I will not cut benefits for retirees and in Congress, I will fight to guarantee retirement security for seniors here in Colorado and all across the country,” Perlmutter said Sept. 23 in the Democratic response to Bush’s weekly radio address.

O’Donnell recently took to the airwaves to say that his views on Social Security are better informed than when he was 24. Speaking directly into the camera, O’Donnell says, “I was wrong. ... Social Security is a promise we must keep, and I will.”

O’Donnell has emphasized his opposition to illegal immigration. He also has sought to link Perlmutter to the House Democratic leadership, which O’Donnell contends would work to raise taxes if their party were to win a House majority.

Some or all of these issues surely will be addressed in a debate Tuesday night in Denver.

Though the race remains rated as a tossup, one recent independent survey raised a question by showing Perlmutter ahead by 17 percentage points. Strategists in both parties, however, believe the race is closer.

CQ rates the race as No Clear Favorite, and is carefully watching developments as the campaign enters its home stretch.

• Colorado’s 4th District. CQPolitics.com on Sept. 28 changed its rating on the race in this northern and eastern Colorado district to Leans Republican from Republican Favored. The conservative leanings and Republican voting habits of 4th District voters still benefit Republican Rep. Marilyn Musgrave in her bid for a third term. But the Democratic nominee, state Rep. Angie Paccione, has gained momentum after something of a slow start, hitting hard with a charge that Musgrave is neglecting district priorities while focusing on her social issues agenda — particularly her trademark issue, opposition to same-sex marriage.

The Sept. 28 profile on the race can be found here.

• Colorado’s 3rd District. Freshman Democratic Rep. John Salazar is being challenged by Republican businessman Scott Tipton in a contest that CQPolitics.com currently rates as Leans Democratic.

Salazar, a farmer and rancher, has maintained the image of a Democratic centrist that enabled him to score one of the biggest House upsets in 2004: his takeover of the seat left open by retiring six-term Republican Rep. Scott McInnis in a district that includes the state’s Western Slope region, reaching east to take in the city of Pueblo. He won with 51 percent in a district where Bush took 55 percent at the top of the Republican ticket (the Democrat’s brother, Ken Salazar, was elected to the Senate that same day).

In fact, the district’s GOP leanings are the major impediment preventing Salazar from establishing himself as an even stronger favorite.

Tipton’s campaign is criticizing Salazar for some votes that pertain to the issue of illegal immigration. Salazar voted last month against a bill to authorize the construction of approximately 700 miles of fencing along the U.S.-Mexican border.

The Tipton campaign also criticizes the congressman’s vote in May 2005 against an amendment to allow the Defense secretary to assign military personnel to assist the Homeland Security Department with border security under certain circumstances.

“My opponent isn’t a bad guy. But when it comes to illegal immigration, he’s just wrong,” Tipton says in a television advertisement that is airing throughout the 3rd.

But Salazar continues to cultivate an image of political independence, emphasize local issues such as protecting the region’s water supplies, and play up his efforts to secure veterans’ benefits (the 53-year-old Salazar served in the Army from 1973 to 1976).

On Friday, as Congress prepared to adjourn, Salazar was one of 32 Democrats who backed the bill to authorize military tribunals for accused terrorist suspects and one of 37 Democrats who voted for legislation to ensure access to federal courts for those challenging government attempts to take their property under eminent domain procedures.

The rest of the state

There are no signs of trouble for the state’s other three incumbents, who appear shoo-ins: Democrats Diane DeGette of the 1st District and Mark Udall (already a declared 2008 Senate contender) in the 2nd, and Republican Tom Tancredo (a leading advocate of limiting immigration) in the 6th.

Please visit CQPolitics.com’s Election Forecaster for ratings on all races.

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