Conroy strikes again

by: Frank

Wed Dec 06, 2006 at 11:10:38 AM CST

The main story is an article by John Conroy, the man responsible for keeping the Burge scandal before the public. It's a continuatin of that scandal. In brief, the judges who are ruling on challenges by people convicted on the basis of coerced confessions are themselves the cops and states attorneys who looked the other way when the torture was going on.

Two Obamas

by: EricV

Tue Dec 05, 2006 at 09:08:14 AM CST

I like Obama, but mainly because I am reluctant to leave my expectations from 2004. I also think that at his heart Obama is a parlimentarian and a legislator. I think that his tact towards the middle can only be explained by positioning himself for a Presidential run (whether in 2008, 2016, or some other time). I'm not sure if I would vote for the 2006 Obama in the primary. But I sure as hell would vote for the 2004 Obama.

From Bowers:

At the end of the 2004 presidential primary season and how, after Howard Dean's loss, I found great hope in Barack Obama when I briefly moved to Chicago during the Illinois Senate primary. Reading the latest piece in the media whirlwind surrounding Obama, I found this nugget that reminded me why I liked the guy so much, and why I volunteered for his campaign in a crowded field:

Which is not to say that Obama doesn't have very strong partisan convictions. "There are times I think we're not ambitious enough," Obama says. "I remember back in 2004, one of the candidates had made a proposal about universal health care, and some DLC-type commentator said, `We can't propose this kind of big-government costly program, because it'll send a signal we're tax-and-spend liberals.' But that's not a good reason to not do something. You don't give up on the goal of universal health care because you don't want to be tagged as a liberal. People need universal health care."

I remember that Obama. I miss that Barack Obama--but he does still show up from time to time. I hope we will see more of him in the future. That is the man I worked for in the 2004 Illinois Senate primary, and who built up easily the largest netroots following of any statewide candidate in 2004. What I don't understand is where this new Obama came from.

Roots Camp Chicago??

by: Christine Cegelis

Mon Dec 04, 2006 at 08:39:53 AM CST

  I also recently attended an America Votes table in Wisconsin.  I was amazed to learn how the 501 c(3) and 501 c(4) organizations come together there to discuss how they can best work together.  The America Votes project is quite impressive and I believe will have a big impact in 2008.  I worked in four states where the project is active over this last cyle. 
 

Hastert's Prairie Parkway

by: EricV

Mon Dec 04, 2006 at 17:09:34 PM CST

A Washington watchdog group has asked the Justice Department to launch an investigation into House Speaker Dennis Hastert's profitable land deals near the proposed path of the Prairie Parkway in Kendall County.
...
An investigation in June by The (Aurora) Beacon News, a sister paper to The Courier News, uncovered the land deals that netted the Yorkville Republican a $1.99 million profit.

In December 2005, Hastert sold for $2.48 million a 69-acre parcel of land he purchased in 2002, taking in a $1.7 million profit. Also that month, he sold for $627,000 a one-quarter interest in an adjacent 70-acre parcel he purchased in 2004, bringing him an additional $287,000 profit.

These deals came four months after Hastert helped earmark $207 million for the Prairie Parkway in the Federal Transportation Bill, which President George W. Bush signed while visiting the Fox Valley in the summer of 2005.

At least someone is putting some pressure on Hastert and continuing to lift up the rock covering the nest of corruption that Washington has become under Republican power. Citizens for Responsibility and Ethics in Washington (or as they should be known, "The American People") does some good work.

Here's a link to the full CREW press release.

Swing State Project on IL-14

by: EricV

Mon Dec 04, 2006 at 14:59:35 PM CST

Via the Hotline (sub. only):

At least 3 state legislators are "looking at running" for outgoing Speaker Dennis Hastert's seat "if and when he retires." Pro-Hastert forces are "lining up" behind state Rep. Tim Schmitz (R), while "conservative" state Sen. Chris Lauzen (R) "has long eyed the seat and is expected to throw his hat into the ring." On the Dem side, locals are "very hopeful" that state Rep. Linda Chapa LaVia (D) will run (Capitol Fax newsletter, 11/30).

My understanding is that the GOP side of things is a bit more colorful than this simple description would indicate. Apparently, the "moderates" back Schmitz because they feel Lauzen is a right-wing nutcase. This story played out many times in 2006 - a radical wingnut beating a more reasonable candidate in the Republican primary - often to our advantage.

...
As for our team, I haven't previously heard of Linda LaVia. Anyone know anything about her?

Jump on in and show off your knowledge.

Huge electric bill increase for residential customers

by: Carl Nyberg

Sat Dec 02, 2006 at 21:56:21 PM CST

The Illinois House, led by Speaker Michael Madigan, has passed a bill extending the rate freeze. Extending the rate freeze is fair because the original deregulation scheme envisioned consumers having choices which would keep prices down. The rate freeze is scheduled to expire, but we still don't have competition.

Senate President Emil Jones has been bought by Com Ed. We don't have much power to influence him. But Jones relied heavily on his connection with Senator Barack Obama to win close Illinois Senate races. Obama sent letters in every closely contested district. And the Democrats about ran the table.

Obama has put his toe in the water on running for President of the United States. This means he needs to get support of the blogosphere. I'd like to put pressure on Obama to persuade Jones to do the right thing.

$7.50

by: Eloy

Fri Dec 01, 2006 at 13:19:51 PM CST

The Democratic-led Senate sent Gov. Rod Blagojevich legislation Thursday to increase the state's minimum wage by a dollar an hour, a move that would make Illinois' new $7.50 wage rate among the nation's highest and place it atop neighboring Midwest states.

Blagojevich, who championed the increase during his successful re-election campaign, said he looked forward to signing the bill into law. After taking effect in July, the rate would continue to rise a quarter a year until it hits $8.25 an hour in 2010.

Obama and the Religious Right

by: EricV

Thu Nov 30, 2006 at 10:29:33 AM CST

When we really got down to it, they said: `This just isn't for us. It won't speak to our base, so we just can't go there.'

Still it is interesting to see the mini-firestorm that has enveloped the right when Rick Warren invited Barack Obama to speak at his church. Obama is only one of 60 speakers for the church's second annual Global Summit on AIDS. Among others speaking is the extremely conservative Republican Senator from Kansas, Sam Brownback. Showing some uncharacteristic good sense, Brownback said of Obama's invitation:

To win the fight against AIDS we must each set aside our differences and join together as human beings from all political, religious, and nonreligious walks of life, fighting for the lives of people who are suffering and dying.

Other members of the radical religious right had another take, demanding in a letter that Warren rescind his invitation and saying that bipartisanship was immoral. Among those signing included Illinois' Peter LaBarbera and Kevin McCullough. ArchPundit has more including links on some of LaBarbera's latest bumblings.

George Ryan not headed to jail

by: EricV

Wed Nov 29, 2006 at 16:12:16 PM CST

It looks like George Ryan is not headed to jail, at least not right now. An appeals court has ruled that Ryan can remain free while his appeal is heard. (Judge Pallmeyer had denied this request earlier and ordered Ryan to jail in January.) Eric Zorn has more including a "trusted source of mine with roots in the legal and law communities" who thinks that the ruling suggests that Ryan's appeal will stand up.

Section 3143(b) of Title 18 of the U.S. Code governs release pending appeal by the defendant.  It provides that convicted, sentenced defendants shall be detained pending their appeals unless the judicial officer finds two things: (1) that the defendant is not a flight risk or a danger to the community (an easy hurdle for Ryan and not important here); AND (2) "that the appeal is not for the purpose of delay and raises a substantial question of law or fact likely to result in-- (i) reversal, (ii) an order for a new trial, (iii) a sentence that does not include a term of imprisonment, or (iv) a reduced sentence to a term of imprisonment less than the total of the time already served plus the expected duration of the appeal process."

So for the appeals court to order Ryan freed on appeal, it must have found or held that the second of the above conditions was met... Has the Seventh Circuit found that the appeal raises a substantial question of law or fact likely to result in a reversal or an order for a new trial?  It appears so.

How They Won -- Blagojevich/Quinn

by: bored now

Tue Nov 28, 2006 at 18:42:23 PM CST

but there's another purpose of raising outrageous sums, at least from an incumbent's point of view -- and that's to intimidate, if not potential challengers, at least contributors to potential challengers.  remember, "the incumbency advantage depends not so much on what incumbents do, but on what potential challengers do." (The Politics of Congressional Elections.  Gary C. Jacobson; p. 37 New York: Addison Wesley Longman,1997)  it's not how much money the incumbent raises that determines how competitive an election will be, but how much the challenger does.

rod blagojevich raised the ante for running for governor in illinois significantly in 2006.  he started off 2006 with 15.5 million dollars COH, spent millions of dollars in spring and summer television, and still had 12 million dollars COH one month out.  compare this record to that of topinka.  she had 1.5 million COH at the end of june and the same one month out.

Kiva

by: yinn

Mon Nov 27, 2006 at 14:48:03 PM CST

One finding is that many people living in extreme poverty know exactly what would constitute a "bootstrap" in their situation--a vehicle or a starting inventory, maybe a great idea, maybe only a few hundred or thousand dollars' worth--but lack the collateral and credit history to obtain the capital they need through the usual channels.  This is where the microcredit concept comes in.

Pick-ups

by: Frank

Fri Nov 24, 2006 at 11:41:18 AM CST

Notably, the same increase in '08 would only result in victories in 10 and 6.

How They Won -- The Indiana 3

by: bored now

Wed Nov 22, 2006 at 07:09:41 AM CST

they offer important lessons.  two dramatic differences stand out between these indiana races and elsewhere: early field and opportunity (or climate).

Huge Props for Duckworth

by: pascal1947

Tue Nov 21, 2006 at 10:04:24 AM CST

She can now build up her credentials and gain some experience in public service.  When and if she decides to make another go in politics, she can do so on her own terms, not when Durbin or Emanuel think its right.

Rahm Sides With Dean & 50 State Strategy.

by: wegerje

Mon Nov 20, 2006 at 20:11:33 PM CST

Even Dean-basher Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.), chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee and an exadviser to former President Bill Clinton, called Dean last week to say Carville was acting alone, and one-time DNC Chairman Don Fowler referred to Carville as an "ill-advised" voice.

This is great. I am so excited that our Democratic Party state level field organizers will continue to be funded by the DNC. That means that we can count on strategic support for our progressive organizations. Even if not money we can count on a friend in the state DNC operation for connections and inside info.

Chris Bowers describes the process thusly:

Although lacking in nuance, it would not be inaccurate to characterize the current modus operandi of the DNC as follows: small donations from progressive movement activists flow to the DNC in record amounts, and most of those donations end up being spent on direct grants to state parties and in the form of state-level field organizers.

And he describes the new emerging power between the DNC and us as the Alliance of the Ignored:

It is in this way that state parties and the Democratic activist working class have bandied together to form an Alliance of the Ignored to which even the Clinton camp must now pay respect. Best of all, even when Dean's tenure is up in two years, the progressive movement can maintain our power and the Alliance of the Ignored with the state parties through another DNC chair who would be willing to continue the fifty-state strategy.

Monday/Tuesday Open Thread

by: yinn

Mon Nov 20, 2006 at 14:18:45 PM CST

As you might have guessed from his name, turns out he's Muslim, too.

Tabatabainejad's screams are going to stay with me awhile.

Seals Named "Most Valiant Effort"...

by: bored now

Sat Nov 18, 2006 at 11:55:10 AM CST

Most valiant effort: Democrat Dan Seals of Illinois' 10th District. It was a tall order for corporate marketing director Seals, little known when the campaign began, to take on Republican Rep. Mark Steven Kirk, a popular GOP moderate seeking a fourth term in the politically competitive 10th District anchored in suburbs north of Chicago. But Seals took a respectable 47 percent of the vote to Kirk's 53 percent, suggesting potential for a bright future in politics if he so chooses.

The levee broke

by: Frank

Fri Nov 17, 2006 at 11:07:58 AM CST

The western suburbs have been for the Republicans what Chicago is to the Democrats. When you have to run there, they have to vote you in. Taking a very generous vies of both "western" and "suburbs," there are 15 legislative districts which have been almost solidly red. Have been. Together, LD 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 32, 33, 35, 41, 42, 43, and 48 had 14 GOP senators (/15 -- "out of 15"). They had 27/30 GOP reps. They had 12 RRR districts (a district whose senator and both representatives are from the GOP.

That compares with the first 20 LDs -- which are in and close to Chicago. These had (and have) 19 D (and 1 I) senators, 38/40 D reps, and 17/20 DDD districts.

TROTS (the rest of the state) had 24 LDs -- with 11 D and 13 R senators, 24 reps of each party, 7 DDD and 5 RRR districts.

More after the jump.

IL-14 Open Thread

by: bored now

Fri Nov 17, 2006 at 07:01:39 AM CST

many years ago, when i was doing my usual post-election analysis on senate campaigns, i came across a journalist.  he told me that he learned to look at campaigns through the lense of the following questions:

1. does the campaign demonstrate a clear purpose?
2. does it have steady political leadership?
3. does it have support from the electorate?

IL-10 Open Thread

by: bored now

Thu Nov 16, 2006 at 07:35:19 AM CST

money is the clearest indicator for outsiders of a campaign's progress.  as much as people may resent this, it is the only quantifiable measure that we have.  endorsements don't mean anything to people who don't know the people who've endorsed you.  but everyone understands cash.

field is something that reporters often overlook but voters almost always know.  the field organization is a critical component of any campaign, at any level.  even presidential campaigns have a field organization, targeting key states and areas they determine they must win.  this is more important at the local level.