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Michigan would choose ...

There's strong support -- and dislike -- for Clinton; Giuliani is tops for GOP

February 3, 2007

BY TODD SPANGLER

FREE PRESS STAFF WRITER

Michigan Democrats want a Clinton back in the White House -- by an overwhelming margin. But independent voters have lingering doubts about Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, raising questions about whether she can continue her party's streak of winning Michigan's presidential delegates.

Almost a year before the state's parties hold primaries or caucuses, Clinton is the clear choice of Michigan Democrats with a nearly 30-point lead over her nearest rival, Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, a Detroit Free Press-Local 4 Michigan Poll conducted last week shows. The New York senator and former first lady got strong support crossing racial lines, income levels, geographical boundaries and age.

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And in head-to-head matchups, she led those who polled best among the Republicans: former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani and Arizona Sen. John McCain, tracking national polls that show the Democrats taking an early lead and reversing trends from some polls last year.

But Clinton's lead in Michigan against the two Republicans was thin.

She polled 46%-42% against Giuliani and 46%-43% against McCain -- right around the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 3.8 percentage points. McCain and Giuliani both held double-digit leads over Clinton among voters who don't identify with either party. Independent voters were critical to Kerry's 2004 victory in Michigan.

The reasons, poll respondents said in follow-up interviews, are many. Some said they fear she would increase taxes. Others worried about her plans for health care, though some supporters said a Clinton health care plan would be welcome. Some said her gender could be a liability.

"I don't think there's very many men who really want to give her a chance," said Brandi Reaume, 31, of Roseville, who says she's an independent and supports Clinton. "I think it scares people."

Whatever the reason, some voters can't see themselves backing Clinton under any scenario.

"I don't really trust her," said Alan Must, a 67-year-old food distributor and independent voter in Bloomfield Township. "I don't like her ideas. I think she basically would like to socialize medicine."

Must said he likes Giuliani, but he'd consider other Democrats, including Obama and former Sen. John Edwards. Anyone, he said, but Clinton.

Meanwhile, Obama and Edwards do better than Clinton in head-to-head matchups with McCain, Giuliani and former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney. Obama, the freshman senator from Illinois who is expected to announce his candidacy Saturday, held a 5-point lead over McCain, 44%-39%, and a 7-point lead over Giuliani, 45%-38%. Even former Sen. John Edwards, who received only 8% of the support against other Democrats, had an 11-point lead over Giuliani, 49%-38%, fueled mostly by a split among independents.

The Democratic candidate has won every presidential race in Michigan since 1992.

"Democrats really love the Clintons. That was their kind of president. Independents have a little more balance in their recall about what they call the Clinton White House," said J. Ann Selzer, president of Selzer & Co., the Des Moines, Iowa, company that conducted the poll.

Bill Ballenger, editor of the biweekly newsletter Inside Michigan Politics, said Saturday that Republicans and some independents typically view Clinton as "cold, calculating, ruthless," a closet super-liberal who will show her true stripes as soon as she is elected.

But, he cautioned, the fact that the three top Democrats led the three top Republicans in the head-to-head matchups shows the GOP's vulnerability as the war in Iraq continues. Free Press-Local 4 Poll numbers back that up, with President George W. Bush's approval rating an abysmal 26%.

"Despite the hand-wringing by a lot of Democrats who say she's too controversial to be elected and Republicans chortling, 'Bring her on' ... there's that old adage be careful what you wish for," Ballenger said.

National polls bear out what the Free Press-Local 4 Poll found. A recent Fox News poll had Clinton with a 43%-15% lead over Obama; a Newsweek poll of Democratic voters and voters leaning Democratic showed a 55%-35% lead for Clinton.

9/11 handling leaves impression

Republican voters prefer Giuliani over McCain 32%-28%, the Free Press-Local 4 Poll found. Because of smaller numbers of Republicans interviewed, the margin of error is a significant plus or minus 8 percentage points.

Trailing the two GOP front-runners were former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, at 16%, and Romney -- whose father, George, was governor of Michigan in the 1960s -- at 8%. Romney arguably has the best early organization and widest support among elected Republicans in Michigan.

Giuliani also does much better in metro Detroit than other Republicans.

Almost every Giuliani supporter cited his handling of the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks.

"I like Giuliani -- the way he handled the city when he was mayor. He did a really good job, and of course 9/11 really put him in the limelight," said Must of Bloomfield Township.

While making clear her support for Clinton, even Reaume, an administrator for a medical equipment distributor, said the choice between Clinton and Giuliani would be tough.

"I would actually have to sit down and think about that one for a while," she said. "I really liked the way when 9/11 happened how he handled everything and how he was so supportive of the families."

Democratic political consultant Mark Grebner agreed with others who said Giuliani's support is likely to be fleeting, however, since his positions on some issues -- like abortion -- run counter to those of many who form the GOP's base.

"When real Republicans start voting in real primaries and caucuses, Giuliani is not going to be on the list. ... He's going to melt like the snow," said Grebner of East Lansing.

Clinton has the edge

Clinton's support among Democrats is deep in almost every area, with an edge of 20 percentage points or better in every racial category, with most income levels and in metro Detroit, where she held a 46%-25% edge over Obama.

"It's almost exclusively name ID," said Ballenger, adding that Michigan Democrats have a love affair with the Clintons. "They look back on it as a halcyon time. And they say, 'Let's bring it all back.' "

Those polled said in interviews that they liked Clinton because of what she's said about ending the war in Iraq, her experience and her commitment to improve health care.

Among women who would vote Democratic, she polled 58%. Beverly Bellamy, 53, of Farmington Hills said she likes Clinton's experience and positions on changing health care. And her gender doesn't hurt, either.

"You can't dismiss who this woman is," Bellamy said.

But Clinton has her detractors among women. Linda Clutter, 42, of Petoskey is an independent voter who works as a sales and marketing manager for a senior living community. She supports Giuliani and can't bring herself to talk about Clinton, so strong are her feelings.

"No interest in her," she said. "That's long term. It goes way back."

Contact TODD SPANGLER at 313-222-6521 or tspangler@freepress.com.