- Ségolène Royal of the Socialist Party (PS) is holding on to a slight lead in France, according to a poll by CSA published in Le Bleu de Profession Politique. 32 per cent of respondents would support Royal in next year’s presidential election.

Nicolas Sarkozy of the Union for a Popular Movement (UMP) is a close second with 31 per cent, followed by Jean-Marie Le Pen of the National Front (FN) with 15 per cent, and Union for French Democracy (UDF) leader François Bayrou with seven per cent.

Support is lower for Revolutionary Communist League (LCR) member Olivier Besancenot, Arlette Laguiller of Workers’ Struggle (LO), Marie-George Buffet of the French Communist Party (PCF), Movement for France (MPF) leader Philippe de Villiers, and Dominique Voynet of the Greens (Verts).

Royal is the leader of the regional government of Poitou-Charentes. Sarkozy currently serves as France’s interior minister. In a prospective run-off scenario, Royal holds a four-point advantage over Sarkozy.

On Oct. 23, Le Pen declared that he expects to reach the run-off again, saying, "One thing is sure. Current opinion polls are giving me twice the support that I was receiving six months before the last presidential election."

The UMP’s Jacques Chirac won the presidential ballot in 1995, and was re-elected in a run-off over Le Pen in May 2002. The next election is scheduled for Apr. 22, 2007. If no candidate garners more than 50 per cent of all cast ballots, a run-off would take place on May 6.

The PS will announce its presidential candidate on Nov. 26, while the UMP will settle on a contender on Jan. 17, 2007. The presidential campaign will officially begin on Apr. 9.

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Among the following candidates, for whom would there be the most chances than you vote with the first turn of the presidential election?

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