Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley

Baltimore Mayor Martin O’Malley is maintaining his lead over incumbent Governor Bob Ehrlich in Maryland’s hotly contested gubernatorial race.  The most recent Rasmussen Reports election survey shows O’Malley leading by five points, 50% to 45% (see crosstabs).  His lead was six points in October’s earlier poll. 

However, when leaners are added to the equation, the race gets closer: 50% choose O’Malley and 47% would elect Ehrlich.

The candidates each have raised nearly $3 million over the past two months to carry them through the remaining days of the campaign.  The benefit of incumbency will help Ehrlich’s campaign coffers a little bit more, though; his campaign has reported nearly $2.4 million cash on hand versus O’Malley’s $600,000.

Another factor that could work in the governor’s favor is the surprise endorsement he picked up last week from The Washington Post.  Though his first term was not free of mistakes, the Post says Ehrlich has “grown in the role to become a generally proficient, pragmatic governor.”  The Baltimore Sun endorsed O’Malley a few days later, stating that Baltimore’s “progress under the mayor’s tenure is clear and irrefutable.”

Ehrlich’s support among Republicans is at 90%. O’Malley receives support from 79% of Democrats.

Thirty-one percent (31%) have a “very favorable” opinion of their current governor while 14% have a “very unfavorable” opinion. For O’Malley, those numbers are 19% “very favorable” and 18% “very unfavorable.”

Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

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Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.