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2 Pyongyang shuffles its military,
not policies By Yoel Sano
The North Korean People's Army (KPA) is
the fifth-largest in the world, with 1.1 million
troops, and is the most powerful force in the
country. North Korean leader Kim Jong-il depends
on the KPA for his rule, and it is the only group
that can challenge him.
The influence of
the KPA has risen dramatically since Kim Jong-il
succeeded his father Kim Il-sung in 1994. For the
past 12 years, North Korea has officially pursued
a "military first policy" (Songun) under
the banner of "powerful and prosperous country"
(Kangsong
Taeguk). Furthermore,
in the event that Kim Jong-il were to fall from
power, or pass away, the military would most
probably seize control of North Korea. Thus, its
leadership merits close attention.
Kim
Jong-il appointed General Kim Kyok-sik as the new
chief of general staff of the KPA late last month,
while elevating the previous incumbent, Vice
Marshal Kim Yong-chun, to vice chairman of the
National Defense Commission (NDC) - the most
powerful decision-making authority in the country,
chaired by Kim Jong-il himself. The NDC's first
vice chairman remains Vice Marshal Jo Myong-rok,
who is the country's de facto No 2 man. But at 79,
Jo is rumored to be terminally ill, suggesting
that he will soon depart.
Even by North
Korea's Byzantine standards, the reshuffle was
surprising in several ways. First, there was no
official mention of Kim Kyok-sik's appointment.
Rather, the official Korean Central News Agency
(KCNA) merely reported that Kim K S, in his new
capacity, had accompanied Kim Jong-il on visits to
military units during the weekend of April 21-22.
Second, unlike his immediate two
predecessors, Kim Kyok-sik was not promoted to the
rank of vice marshal, nor was he appointed to the
NDC. By comparison, Kim Yong-chun was immediately
promoted to vice marshal on becoming chief of the
General Staff in October 1995, although he did not
join the NDC until September 1998.
Third,
General Kim Kyok-sik has maintained a low profile
in the official North Korean media, rarely
eliciting a mention. For example, he has not been
among the half-dozen or so generals who usually
accompany Kim Jong-il on visits to military units.
Although Kim Kyok-sik was a member of the Supreme
People's Assembly (the rubber-stamp parliament)
during the 1990s, he was dropped from the body in
the August 2003 selection of deputies.
Nonetheless, Kim Kyok-sik is now a leading
player in the military hierarchy. His high status
was evident when the KCNA ranked him fifth among
19 senior officials viewing a massive military
parade held on April 25 to mark the 75th
anniversary of the foundation of the KPA. Kim
Kyok-sik ranked right behind Kim Jong-il, Kim
Yong-nam (the president of the Presidium of the
Supreme People's Assembly), Jo Myong-rok, and Kim
Yong-il, the newly appointed prime minister, but
ahead of Kim Yong-chun and other more established
figures.
Despite the surprise nature of
his appointment, Kim Kyok-sik's career is fairly
orthodox. He previously served as the commander of
the frontline 2nd Army Corps - which faces Seoul
across the Demilitarized Zone separating the two
Koreas - since 1994, and was promoted to four-star
general in February 1997. Kim is reportedly 67,
too old perhaps to suggest that he represents a
younger generation than his predecessor, who is
71, but he is clearly of the same generation as
Kim Jong-il, who is 65.
Counterbalancing powerful
generals The status of former chief of
General Staff Kim Yong-chun is somewhat unclear.
Just before his dismissal, the KCNA reported that
he had been elevated to the post of vice chairman
of the NDC, filling a vacancy left by the death of
former prime minister Yon Hyong-muk in October
2005. This means he will remain an influential
figure, albeit no longer with direct command over
the military.
Kim Yong-chun has been one
of North Korea's top military figures since
October 1995, when he became chief of the General
Staff. He reportedly earned Kim Jong-il's trust by
foiling a planned coup d'etat by disaffected
elements of the 6th Army Corps - of which he was
commander - in early 1995. Since then he has
regularly accompanied Kim Jong-il at public events
and was awarded the title of Hero of the
Democratic People's Republic of Korea in April
2000.
It is quite possible that Kim
Jong-il has tapped Kim Yong-chun to succeed Vice
Marshal Jo Myong-rok as first vice chairman of the
NDC. Jo is most widely known internationally for
becoming the highest-ranking North Korean ever to
visit the United States, having been received by
president Bill Clinton in the White House in
October 2000. He is also North Korea's top
military leader, but is 79 years old and
reportedly terminally ill with kidney and liver
disease.
A South Korean human-rights group
reported recently that he is close to death.
Although Jo appeared alongside Kim Jong-il at the
Army Day parade, thus disproving that his death is
imminent, he is clearly approaching the end of his
career.
Kim Jong-il may thus be
counterbalancing Kim Yong-chun's strong influence
by removing him from direct control of the
military. If Kim Y C were to serve both as chief
of General Staff and first vice chairman of the
NDC, he might conceivably become too powerful a
figure within the regime.
This apparent
strategy of counterbalancing top generals to
prevent any single one becoming too powerful has
been a hallmark of Kim Jong-il's rule, which
depends on the military's support. After the death
of Marshal O Jin-u - who was the dominant military
figure for more than 20 years as defense minister
- in February 1995, Kim Jong-il has relied on
about six or more senior generals at any one time
as his main power base. Initially, he had to
balance generals of his father's "revolutionary"
generation, such as Marshals Choe
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