Blair and Bush: the final reckoning
On the eve of his last G8 meeting, Tony Blair has made a last-ditch appeal to President Bush to repay Britain's loyalty over Iraq
By Andrew Grice, Political Editor
Published: 06 June 2007
Tony Blair will make a final appeal to George Bush to repay his loyal support over Iraq by signing up to a firm global target to cut carbon emissions at the G8 summit in Germany starting today.
Three weeks before he stands down as Prime Minister, Mr Blair will join forces with the German Chancellor, Angela Merkel, in an attempt to secure a breakthrough in the battle against climate change. They will press a reluctant US president to agree that the world should cut carbon emissions by 50 per cent from 1990 levels by 2050.
Such an outcome from the last international gathering that Mr Blair will attend with President Bush would at last allow him to answer critics who claim he has got little in return for his "shoulder to shoulder" support for the US President, notably on Iraq and other issues related to the "war on terror".
At the summit in Heiligendamm, the Prime Minister will also try to cement another element of his much-vaunted "legacy" - the G8's commitment at the Gleneagles summit two years ago to boost aid to the developing world by $50bn (£26bn) a year by 2010, with half going to Africa. But there are growing fears that countries such as Italy and Canada are backsliding on their commitments. Frantic last-minute talks involving officials from the G8 leading industrial nations took place in Berlin yesterday but the final shape of the crucial decisions will probably go "up to the wire" at the leaders' meeting, which ends on Friday. UK officials said tough negotations lay ahead on global warming and Africa.
As ministers stepped up the pressure on the US to move further on climate change, Downing Street officials admitted there were three sticking points with the US and conceded that Mr Blair may not secure victory on all of them. They insisted that he and Chancellor Merkel were right to "set the bar high" in advance of the meeting even if that led to them being "cruficied" for not achieving all their goals.
Mr Blair believes that Mr Bush made a landmark policy change last week when he committed himself to a long-term worldwide framework to tackle global warming for the first time. But he will press his closest international ally to go further.
The Prime Minister wants the US to endorse a global target for cutting emissions now, rather than leaving a figure to be settled later; to drop the Bush plan for a parallel series of talks involving 15 major polluting countries and instead join the stalled UN-led process involving more than 180 nations for a "son of Kyoto" treaty, and to back a global "cap and trade" emissions scheme that puts a price on carbon.
A No 10 official said Mr Bush's move last week was "a turning point" that would eventually be regarded as a "pivotal moment". But he conceded it was only a first step and further movement was necessary.
Margaret Beckett, the Foreign Secretary, admitted yesterday that the climate- change negotiations would be "difficult, fraught and protracted". In a speech to businessmen, she criticised American sceptics who opposed a binding worldwide agreement. "If you believe that climate change will be tackled by anything less than global agreements then you are kidding yourself," she said. "This is a global problem for a globalised economic and political system and it needs a global solution."
David Miliband, the Environment Secretary, speaking in Washington, said the US had much to gain economically and politically from putting itself at the forefront of the battle against climate change. "The big challenges that the world faces cannot be solved by any one country alone but equally none of them will be solved without the United States," he said.
British ministers believe Mr Bush's change of tack could draw India and China into the global talks because it will make it harder for them to "hide behind" America's refusal to act. At the summit, the G8 nations - the US, UK, Germany, France, Italy, Canada, Japan and Russia - will be joined by India, China, Brazil, South Africa and Mexico. Between them, the 13 countries account for 70 per cent of the world's carbon emissions.
Amid fears of a new Cold War, the summit could be overshadowed by growing tensions between the Russian President, Vladimir Putin, and both America and Europe.
Mr Blair intends to have a one-to-one meeting with Mr Putin, and his spokesman said: "It is for Russia to decide what sort of relationship it wants. We want a constructive relationship. Politically and economically, Russia has to decide if it shares the values of diplomacy, politics and economics that allow a relationship to develop."
Peter Hain, the Northern Ireland Secretary, said last night: "This is a very dangerous time for the world. President Putin says he is being provoked by the National Missile Defence issue and is threatening a new aggressive stance. Presidents Bush and Putin must not allow a new Cold War to be ignited into a 'hot war'."
The G8 leaders will discuss the stalled talks on a global trade deal, which are vital for the developing world and reach their crunch point in the next few weeks. Peter Mandelson, the EU trade commissioner, urged the leaders to throw their weight behind an agreement. "If we cannot reach a deal on trade today, what chance will we have of reaching collective agreement on the even more difficult issue of climate change tomorrow?" he said.
Pressure groups warned last night that the summit must put an end to backsliding over aid to Africa since Gleneagles. Collins Magalasi, ActionAid spokesman in Heiligendamm, said: "We should be looking at implementation of pledges. Instead we're confronted by reports of scaling back on promises made in Gleneagles. The world's poorest people need immediate action not half measures."
What Blair has done for Bush...
Iraq
Blair gave Bush unquestioning loyalty from first moment Iraq invasion was raised. Stood by him throughout the aftermath of the 2003 invasion despite no WMD being found, and the deaths of 149 British soldiers in the war
Guantanamo Bay
Betrayed the British nationals held without trial at Camp Delta by remaining silent for the first two years. The Prime Minister only called for the camp to be closed in March 2006, after it had been open for four years
Rendition
Blair allowed secret flights from American "black site" prisons to refuel at British airports in the knowledge that prisoners would be tortured, but concealed the information from European investigators
Middle East
PM's support for US policy undermined his position with Palestinians and his desire to be an honest broker. Backed Bush in refusing to demand an immediate ceasefire during the Israeli onslaught in Lebanon last year
Public Opinion
Sacrificed his popularity in the country and provoked hostility within the Labour Party and around the world, to preserve what is seen as a one-sided relationship - summed up in the phrase 'Yo, Blair!'
What Bush has done for Blair...
A Medal
In recognition of Blair's unstinting support for America since 11 September 2001, the PM has been awarded the singular honour of a US Congressional Medal. He has yet to collect it
THE KEY ISSUES
CLIMATE CHANGE
What Blair wants
Tony Blair hopes his final G8 meeting will give a major push forward to efforts to secure a global agreement to tackle climate change. If that happens, he would deserve the credit for putting the issue at the top of the international agenda. But he will need to squeeze firm commitments rather than warm words out of President Bush.
What Bush wants
President Bush has moved to answer his critics by accepting the need for a long-term global framework. But he has not yet committed the US to joining the "son of Kyoto" process led by the United Nations, to a specific worldwide target for cutting emissions or to a global emissions trading scheme.
What Merkel wants
Angela Merkel has put climate change at the top of Germany's agenda during its spell chairing the G8. She has formed a common front with Mr Blair in an attempt to push the US and other reluctant nations towards a new post-2012 global agreement.
Likely outcome
Too close to call. The summit is expected to call for a long-term global framework now that President Bush has gone that far. But the key question is whether it goes further.
AFRICA
What Blair wants
* A reaffirmation of the Gleneagles pledge to double aid to Africa, and new commitments on health and education.
* More African peacekeepers to add to the 15,000 trained after Gleneagles.
* Progress on fairer trade, with greater African access to Western markets, plus a $4bn "aid for trade" package.
What Bush wants
* Technical assistance to strengthen Africa's financial markets.
* Funds to support rural projects, women in business and micro-finance for the poor.
* A $600m increase in spending on education.
What Merkel wants
* More aid from the G8 to improve African infrastructure but more anti-corruption and good governance action from Africa.
* More funds to encourage private investors into Africa.
* A breakthrough in the world trade talks this month.
Likely outcome
UK and US will deliver onaid promises. Rise from Germany, France and Japannot enough to meet commitments.
AIDS
What Blair wants
Tony Blair has said he will press fellow G8 leaders not to backtrack on the commitment they made at their Gleneagles summit two years ago, during which they pledged to ensure universal access to treatment by 2010. He hopes to persuade the summit to approve a series of specific promises and timescales.
What Bush wants
Bush said he would ask Congress to approve a plan to double US spending on Aids relief to $30bn over the next five years. Campaigners say the commitment falls slightly short of its "fair share" of the Gleneagles goal.
What Merkel wants
Until recently, Germany has adopted a cautious approach based on replenishing the Global Fund. But under pressure from Tony Blair, Chancellor Angela Merkel appears to be moving to a more ambitious position, possibly one that involves a path towards the "universal access" goal.
Likely outcome
A draft communiqué says five million Aids sufferers will receive antiretroviral drugs - half what is needed. But this is expected to be beefed up by G8 leaders.
GLOBAL DIPLOMACY
What Blair wants
* Kosovo: pushing for agreement with Russia on Kosovo independence.
* Darfur: threatening to table UN resolution providing for further sanctions in next few days.
* Zimbabwe: Blair hopes Robert Mugabe's rule will be on G8 agenda.
* Iran: hopes to persuade Russia to toughen UN sanctions.
What Bush wants
* Darfur: has given up on UN and has already ordered more US economic sanctions against Sudan.
* Kosovo: will try to overcome Russian resistance to independence.
* Iran: will allow UN to take the lead while keepingoptions open.
* Missile shield in Europe: will hope to ease Russian concerns.
What Merkel wants
* Darfur: pushing for further UN sanctions against Sudan government.
* Kosovo: wants UN resolution on independence voted on soon.
* Iran: will back tough line on compliance with demand for an end to uranium enrichment before negotiations.
Likely outcome
There will be statements on Darfur, Iran and Kosovo but the final word lies with the UN Security Council.
Also in this section
- Deal or raw deal? Bush refuses to commit to climate change target
- Cherchez la femme: Sarkozy marriage mystery deepens as Cecilia goes missing
- Blair an 'ex-Prime Minister', says Putin
- The war on terror: Inside the dark world of rendition
- Protesters thrown overboard after police ram Greenpeace vessels
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