Gartman on Gold Rising - feb - 23, 2005
Dear Crowne Gold Clients:
Dennis Gartman of The Gartman Letter, generally a spokesman for big investment houses and usually against gold is quoted as predicting that gold might go way up.
Sean Trainor, President Crowne Gold, Inc. www.crowne-gold.com
Gold May Rise for 3rd Week as Dollar Declines, Survey Says By Claudia Carpenter Bloomberg News
Service Monday, February 21, 2005 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aRiXw2gX5BQc&refer=top_world_news
Gold May Rise for 3rd Week
as Dollar Declines, Survey Says
By Claudia Carpenter
Bloomberg News Service
Monday, February 21, 2005
Gold may rise for a third week on expectations a drop in the dollar
will spur inflation, boosting demand for the metal as a hedge, a
Bloomberg survey of 48 traders, investors, and analysts showed.
Thirty-six respondents surveyed from Melbourne to New York on Feb.
17 and Feb. 18 advised buying gold, the most bullish sentiment in
the survey since April 30. Some investors buy gold when inflation
erodes the value of assets such as bonds or stocks. Five
participants recommended investors sell the precious metal, and
seven were neutral.
Gold, which is sold in dollars, rose 1.5 percent in New York last
week as declines in the value of the dollar against the euro boosted
the metal's appeal as an alternative asset. The dollar and bonds
fell on Feb. 18 after the U.S. Labor Department reported the biggest
surge in producer prices since 1998.
Inflation "both hurts and helps us," Jack Thompson, vice chairman of
Toronto-based Barrick Gold Corp., the world's third- biggest gold
producer, said in a telephone interview last week. "It hurts on the
cost of production but it helps us on the price side."
Gold futures for April delivery rose $6.40 to $428.40 an ounce last
week on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange,
after gaining 1.5 percent the previous week. A futures contract is
an obligation to buy or sell a commodity at a set price by a
specific date. Gold trading in New York today is closed for the U.S.
Presidents Day holiday.
"We believe this may be the start of a move back toward $450 over
the next few months," said Daniel Hynes, resources analyst at
Australia & New Zealand Banking Group in Melbourne. Gold reached a
16-year high of $458.70 on Dec. 2.
The majority of gold investors and analysts have correctly forecast
the direction of gold prices in 26 of the 43 weeks since the
Bloomberg survey began, or 60 percent of the time.
U.S. producer prices rose 0.8 percent in January, excluding food and
energy, the Labor Department said Feb. 18. Prices rose 0.2 percent
in December. Consumer prices, which the government will report Feb.
23, probably rose 0.2 percent last month, based on the median
estimate in a separate Bloomberg survey.
"Inflation makes the dollar worth less, so gold will continue to
rise if inflation increases," said Stuart Flerlage, managing
principal of Brownstone Advisors LLC, a New York-based investment
company that manages about $100 million of futures, including gold.
Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan on Feb. 16 signaled that the
central bank will keep boosting interest rates to curb inflation and
bolster the dollar, spurring a drop in gold for the first trading
session in six. Greenspan told the House Financial Services
Committee that rates still are "fairly low" even after six quarter-
point increases since June.
"Inflation has already crept into commodity prices and will continue
to until the Fed assumes a more neutral bias with respect to
interest rates," said Flerlage.
The dollar has dropped for three straight years against the euro and
the yen. So far this year, gold dropped 2.3 percent and the U.S.
currency climbed 3.7 percent against the euro.
"I do believe a major up-leg in gold will take place when the market
realizes the Fed is going to have to remain behind the inflation
curve to the tremendous amount of leverage built up in the U.S.
economy," said Gregory Orrell, president of Livermore, California-
based Orrell Capital Management Inc.
Newmont Mining Corp., the world's biggest gold producer, is Orrell's
biggest holding out of about $100 million under management, he said.
Orrell also owns gold bullion through the StreetTracks Gold Trust
traded on the New York Stock Exchange.
Gold rose 5.4 percent last year as the U.S. currency fell to a
record against the euro on concern more dollars may have to be
converted to other currencies to pay for imports. The dollar last
week had its biggest drop against the euro in two months.
The dollar's drop last week is "a key development that has helped to
confirm a technical bottom in April gold at the $411.50 low" on Feb.
9, said Tim Evans, an analyst in New York at IFR Markets, a division
of Toronto-based Thomson Corp. Since reaching that price, the lowest
since Oct. 13, gold has climbed 4.1 percent.
"This is a good time to buy as gold looks bullish technically," said
Manisha Gupta, commodities analyst at Mumbai- based Sunidhi
Commodities Pvt. "If gold rises above $430, it will go to $436."
Gold last week hovered above the 30-day moving average of $423.12,
which "shows near-term technical strength in the price," said Gil
Atzmon, an industry consultant in San Antonio.
Prices are going "up, perhaps way up," said Dennis Gartman, an
economist and editor of the Suffolk, Virginia-based Gartman Letter,
a financial newsletter.
Speculators almost doubled their holdings in gold futures in the
week ended Feb. 15, reports from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading
Hedge funds and other large speculators had bought 21,707 more gold
futures contracts than they had sold as of Feb. 15, up from 11,175
the week before, the commission said Feb. 18.