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The first FOUR and last FOUR pages of the UNCORRECTED OCRed text. Do not use for reproduction, copying, pasting, or reading--exclusively for search engines. OCR for page R1 Preventive Defense OCR for page R2 OCR for page R3 Preventive Defense A New Security Strategy for America Ashton B. Carter and William J. Perry BROOKINGS INSTITUTION PRESS Washington, D.C. OCR for page R4 ABOUT BROOKINGS The Brookings Institution is a private nonprofit organization devoted to research, education, and publication on important issues of domestic and foreign policy. Its principal purpose is to bring knowledge to bear on current and emerging policy problems. The Institution maintains a position of neutrality on issues of public policy. Interpretations or conclusions in Brookings publications should be under- stood to be solely those of the authors. Copyright C) 1999 THE BROOKINGS INSTITUTION 1775 Massachusetts Avenue, N.V7, Washington, D.C. 20036 All rights reserved Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication data Carter, Ashton B. Preventive defense: a new security strategy for America / Ashton B. Carter and William I. Perry. p. cm. Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 0-8157-1308-8 (cloth: acid-free paper) ISBN 0-8157-1307-X (pbk.: acid-free paper) 1. National security United States. 2. United States Military policy. 3. World politics 1989- 4. Twenty-first century—Forecasts. I. Perry, William Tames, 1927- II. Title. UA23.C275 1998 355'.03373 dc21 (First paperback printing, September 2000) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 98-51245 CIP The paper used in this publication meets minimum requirements of the American National Standard for Information Sciences Permanence of Paper for Printed Library Materials: ANSI Z39.48-1984. Typeset in Sabon Composition by R. Lynn Rivenbark Macon, Georgia Printed by R. R. Donnelley and Sons Harrisonburg, Virginia OCR for page R5 Preface The thoughts we express in this book are informed by our service in the Pentagon during the first term of the Clinton administration and with the reflection of a year of distance from the fray. This book includes both our recollections of some of the efforts we have made to initiate a Preventive Defense strategy and our analyses and recommendations for U.S. defense policy in the future. This design, while perhaps unorthodox, seemed most appropriate to us because Preventive Defense is an unfinished mis- sion, one on which we continue to work. We arrived in the Pentagon in January 1993, a few days after President Bill Clinton took office; Bill Perry became, first, deputy secretary of defense and, a year later, secretary of defense, while Ash Carter became assistant secretary of defense. The ideas and commitments reflected here began, however, with work we did well before we began this period of government service. The national security problems we describe in these pages are far from resolved, and we continue to think about them and to seek solutions. Bill Perry, as the nation's nineteenth secretary of defense and earlier the Pentagon's technology chief at the height of the cold war, might have chosen to write a straightforward memoir. Instead, in this book we attempt to be analytical and forward looking, using the past to suggest and illuminate approaches to national security that might be effective in the future. It omits many subjects that were in the headlines in the first Clinton term and dwells at length on some subjects that were not in the headlines at all. The emphasis is on vital dangers to national security and on strategies of lasting value, v OCR for page R6 . vi PREFACE not on the crise do joker that makes the headlines. Making the dis- tinction between larger and lesser dangers to national security is in fact one of the bases of the Preventive Defense approach. Bill Perry served as deputy secretary of defense from March 1993 until February 1994, when he succeeded Les Aspin as secre- tary, and he continued as secretary of defense until January 1997. More than a decade earlier, during the Carter administration, he had been undersecretary for research and engineering, in charge of technology development and weapons acquisition. In between tours in Washington, he returned to California and eventually to Stanford, where he became deputy director of the Center for inter- national Security and Arms Control (CTSAC, now called the Center for International Security and Cooperation). Ash Carter was then director of Harvard's Center for Science and International Affairs, and the two of us began a collaboration on many of the ideas we relate in this book. In 1993 Carter became assistant secretary of defense for international security policy, with responsibility for pol- icy regarding weapons of mass destruction and proliferation, nuclear strategy and arms control, the former Soviet Union and NATO matters covered in this book. After our term in office, we both returned to academic life, Carter to Harvard in September 1996 and Perry to Stanford in February 1997, and we resumed our collaboration, launching a joint university program called the Preventive Defense Project. Our work together thus spans over a decade, and this book is a product both of that collaboration and of Perry's previous work in the Carter administration. We owe a great debt of gratitude to our colleagues in the Penta- gon from 1993 to 1997—the group that came to call itself the "Perry A Team" and we are also indebted to President Clinton , · . . tor inviting us to serve. The thinking and drafting that lie behind this book were made possible by the generosity and trust of the Carnegie Corporation of New York, especially David Hamburg and David Speedie, and of the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation, especially Adele Simmons and Vic Rabinovitch. Private supporters of our work have inclucled Daniel Case, Bill Edwards, Tom Ford, Franklin Johnson, leong Kim, and Elliott Levinthal. Corporate OCR for page R7 PREFACE vii sponsors includecl The Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin Corporation, and United Technologies Corporation. The sponsorship of these foundations and of private and cor- porate supporters makes possible the Preventive Defense Project, a research collaboration of Stanford University and Harvard Uni- versity, our respective academic homes. Through the Preventive Defense Project, we were able to conduct research into the various facets of the Preventive Defense strategy, and this book is one fruit of that research. We are grateful to John Shalikashvili and Liz Sherwood-Randall, our project colleagues during this first year, for their friendship and advice. Others who contributed to the thoughts contained here, but who remain blameless for any errors, are Commander Mike Abrashoff, Chip Blacker, Robert D. Blackwill, Melba Boling, Kurt Campbell, Carol Chaffin, Warren Christopher, Ambassador lames Collins, lohn Deutch, Donna Ditoto, Robert Hermann, Laura S. H. Holgate, Lieutenant General Randy House, Paul Kaminski, Lieutenant General Paul Kern, Mike Lampton, Franklin C. Miller, Steven E. Miller, Katherine Mooney, Toe Nye, Brent Scowcroft, Mitch Wallerstein, John P. White, Philip Zelikow, and many others who are still in government service. Deborah Gordon and Hilary Driscoll are the anchors of the Preventive Defense Project at, respectively, Stanford's Center for International Security and Cooperation (CTSAC) and Harvard's Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs (BCSTA). With- out them, nothing would get done surely not this book. Celeste Johnson at BCSIA contributed her superb research, editorial, and strategic gifts to every chapter. Our editor, Teresa T. Lawson, made structural and substantive contributions that went well beyond her nominal role. Gretchen Bartlett at Harvard and Lainie Dillon at Stanford kept our drafts and our schedules straight. It is in the nature of the Preventive Defense approach that it requires U.S. defense policymakers to forge strong relationships with security leaders in other countries. We thank our many col- leagues in foreign defense establishments who continue to con- tribute to Preventive Defense from their end; some of them are mentioned by name in these pages. OCR for page R8 Dedicated to A. CIayton Spencer aide Lee Green Perry whose love, support, and intellect inspired this book, and much else that we have done. ABC and WIP |
