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Opinion

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Wednesday, February 14th 2007

With city elections fast approaching in Chicago, I went looking to find out more about the time that the Gangster Disciples, the biggest gang in Chicago, ran a candidate for alderman. I had always heard about it, but never knew any details. Legend has it that the Chicago police had decided to tolerate the Gangster Disciples, but because they got active in politics, the police lowered the hammer and decimated the gang by arresting almost all the leaders in a huge sweep.

I didn’t expect to find anything half as interesting, informative, well written, (and long) as this outstanding piece written by Greg Donaldson. I assume he is the same Greg Donaldson who wrote these pieces for New York Magazine, many of which look extremely interesting as well.

We recently wrote about how some $8 billion in gift card value goes unredeemed in a given year, representing 10% of all gift card purchases. In the retail industry, this $8 billion gift is called “breakage.”

State lotteries, it turns out, also rake in a bit of breakage. Here’s a N.Y. Times article about winning lottery tickets that go unclaimed, citing examples of a $14 million prize in Illinois in 2005 and a $51.7 million prize in Indiana in 2002. I am guessing that the states claim far less breakage than the retail industry’s 10%, but this is still serious money — especially when you are already paying yourself a very, very healthy vigorish.

I cannot find any authoritative catalog of what percent of the pot each state keeps for itself from its lotteries, but over the years I’ve seen figures cited from 30% to 70%. Even at the low end, this would mean that our state governments rake a bigger vig than any horse track, casino, or bookie on earth.

Are people who play the lottery aware that perhaps 30% of their bet goes straight into the bookie’s pocket? I doubt it. It would be very interesting to post the vig of each state’s lottery on a web site where all players could check it out. (Does anyone know if such a site already exists? Here’s a site with links to every state lottery, but on the couple of state sites that I checked out, the vig wasn’t readily visible.) I wonder how fast the players would respond to the different rates — if neighboring states, e.g., kept 30% and 45% of the pot, respectively, would lottery players from the 45% state start flooding the 30% state until their own state lowered its vig?

Now that some state lotteries may soon be privatized, it will be interesting to see how the private firms set the vig. Will they keep it high, or even raise it, knowing that few people who play the lottery know or care? Will they make it lower in order to attract players from other states?

All lottery comments welcome.

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Comment of the Moment

"If Lord Kelvin had said in the Middle Ages that man cannot fly, he would have been correct because his goons would have made it so. We are in grave danger of letting the nay-sayers gain precedence again."

Naked Self-Promotion

If you happen to be in Sioux City, Iowa at 7:30 p.m. on Tuesday, Oct. 16, be sure to catch Dubner's turn as the featured speaker for the 2007 Morningside College Peter Waitt Lecture. Admission is free -- though, unfortunately, no schwag will be provided.

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Freakonomics: A Rogue Economist Explores the Hidden Side of Everything

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About Freakonomics

Stephen J. Dubner is an author and journalist who lives in New York City.

Steven D. Levitt is a professor of economics at the University of Chicago.

Their book Freakonomics has sold 3 million copies worldwide. This blog, begun in 2005, is meant to keep the conversation going. Melissa Lafsky is the site editor.

Freakonomics in the Times Magazine

Payback

The Jane Fonda Effect

Dubner and Levitt look into the unintended consequences of Jane Fonda’s 1979 film The China Syndrome — i.e., how the anti-nuke movie may be partly to blame for global warming.

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If you happen to need a haircut in Cambridge, Mass., try The Hair Connection. You will definitely get a great cut, and perhaps even find a spouse. (SDL)

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