"That's what George Bush does... George Bush goes to events that are staged, where people are screened, where they’re only allowed to ask questions if the questions are favorable to George Bush and set up in his favor. That’s not the way democracy works in Iowa, and that’s not the way it works in New Hampshire."
-- John Edwards, quoted by CNN, comparing Sen. Hillary Clinton to President Bush after she was found to have planted questioners in a recent audience.
Tonight the Iowa Democratic Party's Jefferson-Jackson Day banquet will be held with six Democratic presidential candidates trying "to impress the roughly 9,000 Democratic activists and hundreds of journalists attending the marquee event marking kickoff of the 2008 caucus campaign's final stretch," the Des Moines Register reports.
The event comes as John Edwards and Sen. Barack Obama "have begun trying harder to trip up" Sen. Hillary Clinton, "who has inched ahead in Iowa. Their tone has injected the 10-month-old race with a sense of urgency as the Jan. 3 caucuses approach."
The Hotline: "The JJ marks the start of the home stretch of primary season. Tides can begin to turn there. The national media descends on Des Moines to see who is turning out the most feverish crowds. Candidate speeches can be critical in shaping CW in the final two months. Game on."
Marc Ambinder: "Each candidate gets about 10 minutes to speak. Their entrances will be graded by the press, as their supporters in the cheap seats will demonstrate wildly when their name is announced and will perform some sort of creative stunt -- immediately unfurling a massive campaign sign, letting go a creative cheer or dance, or holding up sparkling new campaign signs."
John Edwards will be the first to speak at about 8:30 CT. Coverage will be on C-SPAN.
Rep. Barbara Cubin (R-WY) "will not seek an eighth term as the state’s sole House delegate, ending months of rumors regarding her intentions for 2008," according to CQ Politics. "Cubin’s absenteeism, low fundraising totals and her near loss in 2006 had fueled rumors that she would retire at the end of the 110th Congress."
Gary Trauner (D), "who held Cubin to 48 percent of the vote and a 1,012-vote margin in 2006, already has signed on for a second run."
CQ has more on the Wyoming-at-large congressional seat.
The Columbus
Dispatch reports that Ohio Gov. Ted Strickland (D), "who previously
had been careful to remain neutral," endorsed Sen. Hillary Clinton's
presidential campaign during a conference call with reporters today.
When asked about Strickland's vice-presidential pedigree, Clinton
said, "I have the highest admiration for Gov. Strickland but it's way
too early to be talking about running mates." Strickland invoked the
Sherman statement on speculation of whether he'd be Clinton's
runningmate.
Chris
Cillizza reports that Rep. Jim Saxton (R-NJ), the twelve-term Republican
from New Jersey's 3rd District, "plans to retire after his current
term, an announcement that could come as early as today, according to
sources familiar with his decision." With the retirement of Duncan
Hunter announced earlier this year, Saxton was set to become ranking
member on the House Armed Services committee.
Saxton, the 15th House Republican to retire this cycle, was facing a
challenge from State Senate Judiciary Chair John Adler.
Political Wire got an advance look at a new poll from New Hampshire that shows Sen. Hillary Clinton's lead cut dramatically, essentially making it a three way race with John Edwards and Sen. Barack Obama.
One of the best gauges of which political party may pick up seats in the 2008 elections is CQ's Balance of Power Scorecard. The team rates all 2008 House, Senate and Governors races using a combination of local reporting and historical research to get a sense of where things stand.
Here's a snapshot with a year to go before Election Day:
The Cincinnati
Enquirer reports that former congressman and Bush administration
official Rob Portman's (R) new job at a law firm will allow him "to
continue traveling Ohio, giving speeches and laying the groundwork for
a possible 2010 run for Ohio governor or the U.S. Senate." He has
already started his own political action committee for the 2008
election cycle.
On challenging Gov. Ted Strickland (D): "That would almost certainly
mean a primary fight for Portman because other well-known Republicans
- including former congressman John Kasich and former U.S. Sen. Mike
DeWine - are also considering running."
On running for Sen. Voinovich (R)'s seat: "Portman said that if Ohio's
senior senator, George Voinovich, decides not to run for re-election
in 2010, he would consider that race as well. But Voinovich has said
he plans to run; and Portman is scheduled to co-host a fundraiser for
Voinovich in Cincinnati next month."
Craig Crawford: "Rudy Giuliani has gotten a reputation with Iowa political pros for ending up with the worst of both worlds -- not doing enough to win and yet doing too much to write off a loss if it comes in the Jan. 3 caucuses. And a loss that counts could severely damage his image as the party’s frontrunner for the nomination."
Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY) "has won tens of millions of dollars more
in federal earmarks this year than her rivals for the Democratic
presidential nomination, even though two of them have significantly
more Senate seniority," the Hill
reports.
"A review of the first three appropriations conference reports
finished by Senate and House negotiators shows that Clinton has
successfully requested at least $530 million worth of projects."
Sen. Joseph Biden (D-DE) who first won election to the Senate in 1972,
garnered $67 million worth of projects and Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) who
came to the Senate in 1981, helped place $100 million worth of
earmarks in the three spending bills that have emerged from
House-Senate negotiations.
Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) secured $40.6 million in earmarked funds for
his constituents and Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) "did not win a single
earmark in the spending bills. He has chosen instead to position
himself on the hustings as a leading critic of excessive government
spending."
After a similar Republican debate in September was
cancelled due to the leading candidates' non-participation, the Miami
Herald reports that Fred Thompson, Rudy Giuliani and Mitt Romney
agreed Thursday to participate in Univision's GOP Spanish-language
debate at the University of Miami on December 9, joining John McCain,
Ron Paul and Duncan Hunter.
The difference: "Fred Thompson wasn't an official candidate when the
debate was proposed, giving him an opening to take the lead. With
their candidate facing mixed reviews after two months in the race, the
Thompson campaign said Thursday afternoon that he was in."
"Less than two hours later, Giuliani and Romney said they would be there, too."
"Seeking to restore order to a chaotic primary calendar, GOP Chairman
Mike Duncan said New Hampshire, Florida, South Carolina, Michigan and
Wyoming would lose delegates to next summer's national convention for
violating party rules against holding nominating contests before Feb.
5," the Washington
Post reports.
"The Republican National Committee voted 121-9 Thursday to impose the
penalties. Duncan, who has final say over the matter, said he would go
along."
"Iowa, which plans to hold Republican caucuses on Jan. 3, would not be
penalized because, technically, the caucuses are not binding on
convention delegates. Nevada, which plans to hold its caucuses on Jan.
19, would not be penalized for the same reason."
The Des
Moines Register reports that the campaigns of Sen. Chris Dodd
and Gov. Bill Richardson are at odds over "whether campaign staffers and
out-of-state volunteers, who may be able to legally register to vote
in Iowa, should be allowed to participate in the caucuses."
"Julie Andreeff Jensen, the Dodd campaign's state director in Iowa,
sent a letter Thursday to the state directors of the other Democratic
campaigns in Iowa asking that they pledge that no campaign staffers or
out-of-state volunteers will be counted as a caucusgoers."
"Robert Becker, state director of the Richardson campaign, said his
primary objection is the wording of the pledge that asks that no staff
member participate in the caucus, which he fears could exclude
longtime Iowans."
"A person must be a resident of Iowa for 10 days to vote in a general
election in his or her precinct, said Iowa Secretary of State Michael
Mauro."
A new CNN/Opinion Research poll finds 23% of Americans say "that compared to other presidents in American history, President Bush is the worst ever. Thirty-five percent of those surveyed say that Bush is doing a poor job compared to other presidents and 40 percent said he was doing a good job compared to his predecessors. Only one percent said that Bush was the best president ever in American history."
President Bush's approval rating is just 34%.
Said pollster Keating Holland: "The last president with approval ratings this low for this long was Harry Truman."
A new national AP-Ipsos poll finds Sen. Hillary Clinton leads the Democratic presidential race with 45%, followed by Sen. Barack Obama at 22%, and John Edwards at 12%.
Among Republicans, Rudy Giuliani leads with 29%, followed by Fred Thompson at 19%, Sen. John McCain at 13%, Mitt Romney at 12% and Mike Huckabee at 10%.
As we've noted before, the national polls show very different results than polls in the early primary/caucus states. New polls this week from Wall Street Journal/NBC News and USA Today/Gallup show very similar results.
"The Senate overrode President Bush’s veto of a massive water resources bill Thursday, marking the first time since he took office that Congress has enacted a law over his objections," CQ reports.
Washington Wire: "The 79-14 roll call presages more fights in the coming weeks as
Democrats press for increased domestic spending and restrictions on
Iraq war funding."
"This is the most angry and unstable of an electorate as I’ve seen in my career."
-- Republican pollster Bill McInturff, quoted by NBC News Political Director Chuck Todd, noting McInturff "was around for 1992 and 1994, the last two times an angry electorate wreaked havoc in an election year."
Mitt Romney has opened a wider lead in New Hampshire over his Republican presidential rivals, according to a new Rasmussen Reports survey. Romney now has support from 32% of likely voters, followed by Rudy Giuliani with 17%, Sen. John McCain at 16%, Mike Huckabee at 10% and Fred Thompson at 7%.
Meanwhile, a new Zogby poll in Iowa shows Romney leading with 31%, followed by Mike Huckabee at 15%, Rudy Giuliani at 11%, Fred Thompson at 10% and Sen. John McCain at 8%.
A new Research 2000 poll shows Rep. Tom Udall (D-NM) as the one potential Democratic candidate for the U.S. Senate in New Mexico who has a wide lead over both of the likely Republican candidates, Rep. Heather Wilson (R-NM) or Rep. Steve Pearce (R-NM).
Udall initially said he would not run for the seat but is now reconsidering. Udall would top Wilson, 55% to 38%, and beat Pearce, 54% to 37%.
However, Gov. Bill Richardson (D) was not included as a potential candidate but could become one early next year if he dropped out the presidential race.
Mike Huckabee "will spend most of the next 65 days in Iowa and has moved the majority of his staff to the state in an effort to capitalize on a sense that he's gaining ground here," according to Marc Ambinder.
On Tuesday, Bob Latta (R) won a bruising Republican primary to face Robin Weirauch (D) in a special election Dec. 11 to determine who replaces former Rep. Paul Gillmor (R-OH), who died two months ago.
"While the political history and demographics of the northwestern Ohio district suggest that the Republicans should have little problem holding this seat, patching up hard feelings is nonetheless an urgent priority for them," CQ Politics reports. "The primary campaign was colored by negative advertising by both major Republicans, each of whom accused the other of lying and distortion."
Weirauch is making her third bid to win the congressional seat, having already lost twice to Gillmor. "A Weirauch win would be a big upset, and it would probably require financial support from the national Democratic Party and its allies."
CQ Politics lists the top ten House fundraisers and find they primarily fall into two camps.
"Some are veteran lawmakers who have 'safe' congressional districts and lofty positions in party leadership or on prestigious House committees; these members use their influential positions to pile up campaign money, which they then re-distribute to bolster the treasuries of other, lesser-funded colleagues as well as their party’s campaign committees. The others, who tend to have much less seniority, come from the other end of the competitive spectrum, raising money as fast as they can to defend themselves against possibly threatening challenges in their next House elections."
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