Wednesday, December 19, 2007

Canada's population estimates

Canada's population has exceeded the 33-million mark, according to preliminary demographic estimates, which also show that Saskatchewan has more than 1 million people for the first time since 2001.

The estimates, based on the population counts from the 2001 Census adjusted for net undercoverage, also show that Saskatchewan has supplanted Alberta as Canada's fastest-growing province.

As of October 1, 2007, Canada's population was estimated at 33,091,200, up 115,200 from July 1, 2007. The nation's population increased 0.35% during the third quarter, the strongest growth rate since the third quarter of 2001.

It has taken Canada three years to boost its population by 1 million people. The nation's estimated population slipped over the 32-million mark during the third quarter of 2004.

Four provinces—Saskatchewan, British Columbia, Ontario and Alberta—had population growth rates above that of the country during the third quarter.

Immigration remained strong during the third quarter, when Canada received an estimated 71,600 newcomers, the second highest quarterly level since 1971. Net international migration accounted for two-thirds of the country's increase.

Saskatchewan's population on the rebound thanks to interprovincial migration

As of October 1, 2007, Saskatchewan's population was estimated at 1,003,300, up by 6,400, or 0.65%, from July 1, 2007. These gains were record highs, and the province's rate of demographic growth was the fastest in the country. Interprovincial migration accounted for two-thirds of this increase.

Saskatchewan's population has been on the rebound since the fourth quarter of 2006. At that time, its population reached 986,900, the lowest estimates since July 1982. This new growth is mainly caused by an increase in net inflows from interprovincial migration, mainly people returning to Saskatchewan from neighbouring Alberta.

Saskatchewan's population was over the 1-million mark between 1983 and 2001.

On the other hand, the main engine of Alberta's demographic growth—interprovincial migration—has lost some of its importance. Alberta, which has led the provinces in population growth for the last few years, has started to lose more people to other regions than it has received.

Over the third quarter, Alberta recorded a net interprovincial migration outflow estimated at 3,300 people. The last time the province recorded a net outflow to other jurisdictions occurred in the fourth quarter of 1994.

Thanks to strong natural growth and net international migration, Alberta's population is still increasing. However, its increase of 0.37% was the lowest since the fourth quarter of 2004.

Atlantic region: Below-average growth in all four provinces

The population of all four Atlantic provinces rose during the third quarter, but at a slower pace than that of the country.

Newfoundland and Labrador's population was estimated at 507,500, up by 1,200, the highest increase since the fourth quarter of 1992. This halted a streak of 15 consecutive quarters of population losses.

Newfoundland and Labrador, as well as Saskatchewan, is one of the jurisdictions benefiting the most from the shift in trends observed in Alberta's interprovincial migration.

For the first time since the second quarter of 1991, Newfoundland and Labrador posted a net inflow from interprovincial migration, estimated at 1,100. More than a third of these gains (+400) are coming from the province's exchanges with Alberta.

Prince Edward Island was the fastest-growing province in the Atlantic region, with a rate just below the national level. The province received more immigrants than ever before during the third quarter. Immigrants entered the province at an annualized rate of 12.1 for every 1,000 population, surpassing the national level of 8.7 for every 1,000.

Manitoba, British Columbia and Ontario are the other provinces posting an immigration rate higher than the national level.

New Brunswick posted a population increase for the fourth consecutive quarter and a net interprovincial migration inflow for a third quarter in a row. Its population gain of 1,100 between July 1 and October 1 was the highest since the second quarter of 1991.

Nova Scotia had the slowest population growth among provinces, a gain of 0.1%, or just below 1,000 people. However, a year earlier at the same period, the province's population had been declining. The main factor in this new increase was lower net outflows from interprovincial migration.

Central Canada: Population gains for both Ontario and Quebec

Ontario's population increased 0.37% to an estimated 12,850,600, which represented about 39% of Canada's population. This growth rate, faster than that of the country for the first time since the second quarter of 2006, was mainly due to smaller net interprovincial migration outflows.

Ontario posted a net interprovincial migration loss of 3,100 people in the third quarter, far below the net outflow of 14,700 during the same quarter in 2006. While still recording net losses to Alberta, Ontario has been recording net interprovincial migration gains with the rest of the country.

Ontario's attraction for international immigrants, while still strong, is not what it used to be. During the third quarter, the province welcomed close to 47% of newcomers to Canada, compared with 60% between 2000 and 2002.

The population of Quebec, the second most populous province, increased 0.25%, still slower than the national rate. But the pace was still slightly faster than that of the third quarter of 2006.

The number of births in Quebec is still on the rise, as is its rate of natural increase (the excess of births over deaths). The rate of natural increase in Quebec is second only to that of Alberta among the provinces. The province's rate of natural growth has been higher than Canada's since the beginning of 2006, a phenomenon not seen since the beginning of the 1980s.

The West: British Columbia's growth second fastest in country

British Columbia's population hit an estimated 4,402,900 in the third quarter, an increase of 0.52%, the second fastest among the provinces. This was the province's second strongest rate of growth since the third quarter of 1996. This is due mainly to an increase in net interprovincial migration inflows and a continuing strong immigration. International migration accounted for close to 60% of BC's growth.

Manitoba recorded a demographic increase of 0.31%, slightly below the national rate. It is, however, the province's strongest growth since the third quarter of 1983. This was due to a strong immigration rate, one of the highest in the country, and to lower net interprovincial migration outflows.

Manitoba had a net interprovincial migration loss of 100 people during the third quarter, compared with 3,200 in the same period in 2006. This was the smallest loss since the third quarter of 1984.

Territories: Only Yukon's gain exceeded the national average

In the territories, the situation was varied. The only territory to post a faster demographic growth rate than that of the country was Yukon, where the population rose 0.41% to reach 31,100. This was due to an increase in net inflows from interprovincial migration.

The Northwest Territories was the only jurisdiction to record a demographic decline. Its population fell 0.5% during the third quarter, largely the result of larger net losses in interprovincial migration.

Interprovincial migration was also the main factor explaining why Nunavut posted one of the smallest population increases in its brief history. Over the third quarter, the population of the territory edged up 0.04%. Without its strong birth rate, Nunavut's population would have declined.

Available on CANSIM: tables 051-0005, 051-0006, 051-0017, 051-0020, 051-0037, 051-0045 and 053-0001.

Definitions, data sources and methods: survey numbers, including related surveys, 3231, 3233 and 3601.

The publication Quarterly Demographic Estimates, Vol. 21, no. 3 (91-002-XWE, free), is now available from the Publications page of our website.

For more information, to obtain additional data, or to enquire about the concepts, methods or data quality of this release, contact Client Services (toll-free 1-866-767-5611 or 613-951-2320; fax: 613-951-2307; demography@statcan.ca), Demography Division.

Canada's population estimates and demographic growth1
	July 1, 2007pp	October 1, 2007pp	July 1, 2007 to October 1, 2007
	number		% change
Canada	32,976,026	33,091,228	0.35
Newfoundland and Labrador	506,275	507,475	0.24
Prince Edward Island	138,627	139,103	0.34
Nova Scotia	934,147	935,106	0.10
New Brunswick	749,782	750,851	0.14
Quebec	7,700,807	7,719,993	0.25
Ontario	12,803,861	12,850,636	0.37
Manitoba	1,186,679	1,190,400	0.31
Saskatchewan	996,869	1,003,299	0.65
Alberta	3,473,984	3,486,767	0.37
British Columbia	4,380,256	4,402,931	0.52
Yukon	30,989	31,115	0.41
Northwest Territories	42,637	42,425	-0.50
Nunavut	31,113	31,127	0.04
pp preliminary postcensal estimates 1. These estimates are based on the 2001 Census population counts adjusted for net undercoverage.

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