American Research Group, Inc.

Iowa

Presidential Caucus Preference:

 

Iowa
Likely Republican Caucus Goers Nov 10-14 Nov 26-29 Dec 16-19 Dec 20-23 Dec 26-28
Giuliani 11% 9% 13% 14% 6%
Huckabee 24% 27% 28% 23% 23%
Hunter 1% - - 2% 2%
Keyes - - 1% 2% 2%
McCain 10% 9% 20% 17% 11%
Paul 3% 3% 4% 10% 6%
Romney 26% 28% 17% 21% 32%
Tancredo 1% 1% 1% ni ni
Thompson 11% 14% 5% 3% 7%
Undecided 13% 9% 11% 8% 11%
  • 21% of likely caucus participants are undecided (11%) or say they could switch candidates between now and January 3 (10%).
  • 85% of those saying they support Romney say their support is definite.
  • 93% of those saying they support McCain say their support is definite.
  • 100% of those saying they support Giuliani say their support is definite.
  • 60% of those saying they support Huckabee say their support is definite.
  • Among men, Huckabee is at 23%, Romney 28%, McCain 11%, and Thompson 11%.
  • Among women, Huckabee is at 23%, Romney 37%, McCain 11%, and Giuliani 9%.

 

Iowa
Likely Republican Caucus Goers Dec 06 Jan 07 Feb 07 Mar 07 Apr 07 May 07 Jun 07 Jul 07 Aug 07 Sep 07 Oct 07
Brownback 1% 1% 2% - 1% 3% 3% 1% - 2% ni
Gilmore - - - - 1% 1% - ni ni ni ni
Gingrich 18% 16% 16% 7% 8% 8% 5% 4% 7% 5% ni
Giuliani 28% 27% 31% 29% 19% 23% 18% 22% 17% 21% 16%
Hagel 6% 5% 2% 1% 1% 2% 1% ni ni ni ni
Huckabee 1% 2% 1% - 2% 2% 1% 1% 14% 4% 19%
Hunter - - - - - - 1% 2% 1% 2% -
Keyes ni ni ni ni ni ni ni ni ni 1% -
McCain 26% 22% 23% 29% 26% 25% 13% 17% 5% 11% 14%
Pataki - - - - - - - ni ni ni ni
Paul ni - - - - - 1% 1% 1% 2% 1%
Romney 6% 11% 8% 10% 14% 16% 25% 21% 27% 22% 27%
Tancredo ni 1% 1% 1% 2% 2% 1% 1% - 1% 2%
F Thompson ni ni ni 12% 13% 6% 14% 13% 13% 16% 8%
T Thompson - - - 1% 1% 2% 3% 2% ni ni ni
Undecided 14% 15% 17% 11% 13% 10% 14% 15% 15% 13% 13%

 

Preference by party:

 

Iowa
Likely Republican Caucus Goers Republicans (85%) Independents (15%)
Giuliani 7% 2%
Huckabee 25% 11%
Hunter 2% -
Keyes 2% -
McCain 9% 22%
Paul 5% 11%
Romney 31% 43%
Thompson 8% -
Undecided 11% 11%

 


About this Survey -

Survey Sponsor: American Research Group, Inc.

The American Research Group has been conducting surveys of voters since 1985.

Sample Size: 600 completed telephone interviews among a random sample of likely Republican caucus goers living in Iowa (512 Republicans and 88 no party (independent) voters).

Sample Dates: December 26-28, 2007

Margin of Error: ± 4 percentage points, 95% of the time, on questions where opinion is evenly split.

Incidence of Likely Republican Caucus Participation: 8.5% of Republican and no party voters.

Question Wording:

If the 2008 Republican presidential caucus were being held today between (names rotated) Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Duncan Hunter, Alan Keyes, John McCain, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Fred Thompson, for whom would you vote?

Would you say that you definitely plan to participate in the 2008 Republican presidential caucus, that you might participate in the 2008 Republican presidential caucus, or that you will probably not participate in the 2008 Republican presidential caucus?

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