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Election 2008: Florida Republican Primary
Florida: Huckabee 27% Romney 23% Giuliani 19%
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Mitt Romney’s strategy for winning the Republican nomination was to win the early states and build momentum. Rudy Giuliani’s plan was to accept defeats in the early states and come back strong on January 29 in Florida and in many large states on February 5.

The latest Rasmussen Reports polling in the state of Florida suggests that Giuliani might need to work on a “Plan B.’ Mike Huckabee now leads in the Sunshine State Primary with 27% of the vote. He is trailed closely by Romney at 23% and Giuliani at 19%. Fred Thompson is at 9% in the poll, John McCain at 6%, and Ron Paul at 4%. Tom Tancredo and Duncan Hunter each attract 1% and 8% are undecided.

Those figures reflect a stunning change in the race since November when Rasmussen Reports polling found Giuliani on top with 27% followed by Romney at 19% and Thompson at 16%. Since then, Huckabee has gained 18 percentage points and Romney picked up four points. Giuliani is down eight, Thompson is down seven, and McCain is down four.

Huckabee has shaken up the race for the White House with an amazing surge over the past month. He now leads in Iowa and South Carolina. He is tied for the lead in Michigan and consistently near the top nationally in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Romney, however, holds a very solid lead in New Hampshire.

The results of those earlier votes will almost certainly have an impact in Florida where the race remains extremely fluid. Just 49% of voters are “certain” they will vote for their current favorite when the election actually rolls around.

If voters do change their mind, Giuliani narrowly tops the list as a second choice. Eighteen percent (18%) say the New Yorker is their second choice followed by McCain at 16%, Romney at 15%, Huckabee at 13%, and Thompson at 12%. Among those who say there is a good chance they could change their mind, Giuliani is an even stronger second choice preference.

Thirty percent (30%) of Florida’s Likely Primary Voters say that a candidates faith and religion are Very Important voting considerations. Another 30% say they are Somewhat Important while 40% say either Not Very Important or Not at All Important.

Among those who consider a candidate’s faith and religion Very Important, Huckabee has a huge lead. He attracts 44% of these voters. Romney attracts 15%, Thompson 11%, and Giuliani 8%.

Among those who consider a candidate’s faith and religion Somewhat Important, the three leading candidates are even—Giuliani wins 26% of this vote, Huckabee and Romney 25% each.

But, among those who say a candidate’s faith and religion is not important, it’s Romney 28%, Giuliani 22%, and Huckabee 17%.

Romney now earns the highest favorable ratings among Florida’s Likely Primary Voters at 74%. That’s up five points since November and up eleven since September.

Giuliani is viewed favorably by 69%, down from 79% a month ago. Huckabee is viewed favorably by 68%, up from 56% a month ago.

Thompson draws positive reviews from 64%, McCain from 57%, and Ron Paul from 23%.

Immigration remains the top issue for Republican Primary Voters—28% name it their most important voting issue. Twenty-one percent (21%) name national security as their top issue, 19% pick the economy, and 16% the War in Iraq.

See survey questions and top-line results. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.

Rasmussen Reports is an electronic publishing firm specializing in the collection, publication, and distribution of public opinion polling information.

The Rasmussen Reports ElectionEdge™ Premium Service for Election 2008 offers the most comprehensive public opinion coverage ever provided for a Presidential election.

Scott Rasmussen, president of Rasmussen Reports, has been an independent pollster for more than a decade.

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Survey of 685 Likely GOP Voters
December 13, 2007

Election 2008: Florida GOP Primary

Mike Huckabee

27%

Mitt Romney

23%

Rudy Giuliani

19%

Fred Thompson

9%

John McCain

6%

Ron Paul

4%

Some other candidate

2%

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