The Delphi Method:
Techniques and Applications

Harold A. Linstone and Murray Turoff, Editors

The digital version has been created by the efforts of a number of Ph.D. students in the Information Systems Department at the New Jersey Institute of Technology. There are in fact a number of thesis efforts that have been undertaken to utilize the concepts of the Delphi Method to design and evaluate groups communication systems for large groups dealing with complex problems.

If you find the material in this reproduction of the original 1975 book to be useful, we would like to suggest you make a modest contribution to the IS graduate student fund at NJIT. This money will go to support the travel of graduate students to professional meetings where they have had papers accepted. Mail your check to:

IS graduate student fund at NJIT
Information Systems Department
College of Computing Sciences
New Jersey Institute of Technology
University Heights
Newark, NJ 07102-1982

Please direct all other inquiries to author Murray Turoff.

A Note About the Electronic Version

The electronic version of this book was created by scanning the pages of the print version into a personal computer and recognizing the text with OCR (optical character recognition) software. Although this type of software has greatly improved over the years, readers will no doubt still find a great many "typos" (recognition errors) in this electronic text. Hence, please accept our apologies in advance for these imperfections. At some point in the future we would like to correct them all, but for the time being we felt it was more valuable to present to you the text in its present form.

Table of Contents

Clicking any of the chapter titles below will take you to the HTML page. Alternatively, you can download each chapter or the whole book in PDF format by clicking the PDF icons to the right of each chapter title. If you don't have it, you may need to download the free Adobe Acrobat Reader that will allow you to view the PDF files.

Download the whole book in PDF form. (11.1MB)

1. Introduction
   1. Introduction
      Harold A. Linstone and Murray Turoff    (38k)
2. Philosophy
   1. Introduction
      Harold A. Linstone and Murray Turoff    (12k)
   2. Philosophical and Methodological Foundations of Delphi
      Ian A. Mitroff and Murray Turoff    (68k)
   3. Reality Construction as a Product of Delphi Interaction
      D. Sam Scheele    (1081k)
3. General Applications
   1. Introduction
      Harold A. Linstone and Murray Turoff   (36k)
   2. Government and Planning Delphi
      1. The Policy Delphi
         Murray Turoff    (60k)
      2. Delphi Inquiries and Knowledge Utilization
         John Ludlow    (840k)
      3. The National Drug-Abuse Policy Delphi
         Irene Anne Jillson    (1003k)
      4. A Delphi Evaluation of Agreement Between Organizations
         Chester G. Jones    (122k)
   3. Business and Industry Delphi
      1. Delphi Research in the Corporate Environment
         Lawrence H. Day    (986k)
      2. Plastics and Competing Materials by 1985: A Delphi Forecasting Study
         Selwyn Enzer    (864k)
      3. A Delphi on the Future of the Steel and Feroalloy Industries
         Nancy H. Goldstein    (508k)
4. Evaluation
   1. Introduction
      Harold A. Linstone and Murray Turoff   (32k)
   2. Toward a Theory of Group Estimation
      Norman C. Dalkey    (452k)
   3. Experiments in Delphi Methodology
      M. Scheibe, M. Skutsh, and J. Schofer    (772k)
   4. Propensity to Change Responses in a Delphi Round
      Norman W. Mulgrave and Alex J. Ducanis    (77k)
   5. The Performance of Forecasting Groups in Computer Dialogue and Face-to-Face Discussion
      Klaus Brockhoff    (109k)
5. Cross-Impact Analysis
   1. Introduction
      Harold A. Linstone and Murray Turoff   (12k)
   2. An Elementary Cross-Impact Model
      Norman C. Dalkey    (88k)
   3. An Alternative Approach to Cross-Impact Analysis
      Murray Turoff    (362k)
   4. A Primer for a New Cross-Impact Language—KSIM (with Examples Shown from Transportation Policy)
      Julius Kane    (108k)
6. Specialized Techniques
   1. Introduction
      Harold A. Linstone and Murray Turoff   (18k)
   2. A Delphi Study of Factors Affecting the Quality of Life
      Norman C. Dalkey    (132k)
   3. Multidimensional Scaling: Models, Methods, and Relations to Delphi
      J. Douglas Carroll and Myron Wish    (845k)
   4. Differential Images of the Future
      Marvin Adelson and Samuel Aroni    (2086k)
   5. Architecting the Future: A Delphi-Based Paradigm for Normative System-Building
      John W. Sutherland    (209k)
7. Computers and the Future of Delphi
   1. Introduction
      Harold A. Linstone and Murray Turoff   (35k)
   2. Conferencing via Computer: Cost Effective Communication for the Era of Forced Choice
      Charlton R. Price    (73k)
   3. Group communication Through Electronic Media: Fundamental Choices and Social Effects
      Robert Johansen, Richard H. Miller, and Jacqes Vallee    (293k)
   4. Technology for Group Dialogue and Social Choice
      Thomas B. Sheridan    (79k)
   5. Computerized Conferencing in an Educational System
      Robert Johansen and James A. Schuyler    (71k)
   6. Meeting of the Council on Cybernetic Stability: A Scenario
      Murray Turoff    (29k)
8. Eight Basic Pitfalls: A Checklist
   Harold A. Linstone    (75k)

Appendix: Delphi Bibliography   (121k)