Friday, May 23, 2008

Email to a Friend

The latest Rasmussen Reports telephone survey of New Hampshire voters shows hardly any change in the state’s U.S. Senate race. Jeanne Shaheen (D) now leads incumbent Senator John Sununu (R) 50% to 43%. A month ago, Shaheen led 51% to 43%. The race is remarkably stable. Prior to the current poll showing a seven-point Shaheen lead, the challenger had enjoyed an eight-point lead in three consecutive monthly polls.

Any incumbent who is polling below 50% is considered potentially vulnerable. Sununu, facing a serious challenge from a former Governor of the state, is more vulnerable than most. This is the fifth Rasmussen Reports poll of the race and Sununu has never topped the 43% level of support. In each of the last two surveys, the challenger has hit the 50% mark.

Additionally, Sununu may not be able to count on much outside support from Republican sources this cycle as the party faces a large number of troubled races. In addition to New Hampshire, at least nine other Republican Senate seats could be in play for the Democrats during Election 2008. These include Senate seats in Alaska, North Carolina, Oregon, New Mexico, Colorado, Minnesota, Kentucky, Virginia, and Texas.

Republican incumbents in Maine and Kansas are a bit better off than many of their colleagues. Both Susan Collins and Pat Roberts are modestly over the 50% level of support in their re-election bids. In Nebraska, the GOP is currently favored to hang on to the seat being vacated by Chuck Hagel. Rasmussen Reports will be polling the Mississippi Senate races next week. A commentary by Dick Morris looks at the coming GOP Senate Massacre which he says could be worse than even the worst previous years for Republicans.

In New Hampshire, the Senate candidates are essentially even among men but Shaheen has a seventeen point advantage among women. Shaheen leads among those who make less than $75,000 annually while Sununu leads only among upper-income voters. Both candidate’s earn the vote from 81% of their own party while Shaheen has a fourteen-point lead among unaffiliated voters.

Sununu is viewed favorably by 49% of New Hampshire voters and unfavorably by 47%. Shaheen earns positive reviews 58% and negative feedback from 40%.

In the New Hampshire presidential election, the McCain-Obama race is close. The two men are also quite competitive in the Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll.

Rasmussen Markets data shows that Shaheen is heavily favored to win the New Hampshire Senate race (current prices: Democrat %; Republican %) Numbers in this paragraph are from a prediction market, not a poll. Using a trading format where traders "buy and sell" candidates, issues, and news features, the Rasmussen Markets harness competitive passions to provide a reliable leading indicator of upcoming events. We invite you to participate in the Rasmussen Markets. It costs nothing to join and add your voice to the collective wisdom of the market.

See survey questions and toplines. Crosstabs available for Premium Members only.