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National Drought Summary -- September 9, 2008

The discussion in the Looking Ahead section is simply a description of what the official national guidance from the National Weather Service (NWS) National Centers for Environmental Prediction is depicting for current areas of dryness and drought. The NWS forecast products utilized include the HPC 5-day QPF and 5-day Mean Temperature progs, the 6-10 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, and the 8-14 Day Outlooks of Temperature and Precipitation Probability, valid as of late Wednesday afternoon of the USDM release week. The NWS forecast web page used for this section is: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/forecasts/.

Weather Summary:  After meandering Tropical Storm Fay dumped heavy rains on the Southeast in late August, two more tropical systems impacted the lower 48 States.  After raking Louisiana, slow-moving Hurricane Gustav drenched the lower and middle Mississippi valleys and middle Great Lakes region, while fast-tracking Tropical Storm Hanna inundated the eastern portions of the Atlantic Coast States. Meanwhile, feeder bands from Tropical Storm Hanna soaked Puerto Rico and flooded northern Haiti. 

Spotty, locally heavy thunderstorms dropped 1 to 4 inches of rain on parts of the central and southern Plains; however, only light rains fell on the upper Midwest and in-between the heavy rain tracks of Gustav and Hanna, particularly on the core D2-D4 drought areas of the southern Appalachians. Unseasonably cool weather enveloped the Rockies, Plains, and Mississippi River Valley, while above-normal temperatures prevailed in California, Arizona, and the eastern third of the nation.

The Northeast and mid-Atlantic:  Tropical Storm Hanna (see Delta and Southeast below) rapidly tracked northeastward, dumping moderate to heavy rains on eastern sections of the mid-Atlantic and New England.  A wide swath of more than 2 inches was measured in the eastern half of Virginia, most of Maryland, Delaware, and New Jersey, eastern Pennsylvania, and points northeastward.  Isolated amounts of over 9 inches were measured south of Washington, D.C., causing flash flooding in Prince William County, VA.  As a result, a 1-category reduction was made in the aforementioned areas as short-term dryness D0(A) was eliminated.  Moderate drought was alleviated in the Delmarva Peninsula and southern New Jersey, but D0 remained as rains from Hanna were lower (less than 2 inches).

Although the bulk of significant rains from Hanna stayed east of the Appalachians, a cold front on Monday produced 1 to 2 inches of rain that shrank the D0-D1 area of central Pennsylvania.  In addition, the Monday thunderstorms insured that short-term dryness D0(A) did not spread into western Pennsylvania and northern West Virginia, another area missed by Hanna.

Midwest:  In the eastern Corn Belt, rains from Gustav dumped over 2 inches on northwestern Indiana and much of lower Michigan, including almost 5 inches near Grand Rapids, MI, eliminating the western and northern D0 area, and trimming away the western edge of D1.  In southwestern Ohio, thunderstorms dropped 1 to 2 inches of rain, further easing D0(A) there.  Just to the north, however, rainfall sharply diminished, and weekly totals in northeastern Indiana and northwestern Ohio were less than 0.5 inches, maintaining D0 and even adding a new D1 area in the latter region.  Since July 9, only 44% of normal precipitation (2.64 inches observed vs. 6.03 inches normal) has been measured at Toledo, OH.

In the western Corn Belt, Gustav dumped 1.5 to 2 inches of rain on northwestern Missouri and northeastern Kansas, eliminating any lingering abnormal dryness, but dropped less than 0.5 inches on southwestern Iowa, maintaining D0-D1 there.  In the upper Midwest, Gustav completely bypassed Minnesota and northern Wisconsin, and deficits since early summer continued to grow.  Since June 17, under 60% of normal precipitation was measured across most of northeastern, north-central, and southeastern Minnesota, including less than 40% between Grand Rapids and Brainerd where a small D2 was added.  With similar departures existing across northern Wisconsin, and 28-day USGS stream flow values in the lower 10th percentile, D1 was expanded across the upper Midwest.

The Delta and Southeast:  Although heavy rains from Hurricane Gustav mainly fell on non-drought areas of the lower and middle Mississippi valleys, a small remaining area of D0 in west-central Louisiana and extreme southeastern Texas was alleviated as 1 to 6 inches of rain fell.  Additional Gustav relief also occurred in northeastern Mississippi and western Tennessee as 1.5 to 3 inches removed abnormal dryness there. 

Farther east, Tropical Storm Hanna made landfall near the South and North Carolina border early in the morning Saturday, and rapidly tracked northeastward.  Totals were greatest to the northwest of Hanna’s track and less to the east where winds were stronger. In the Carolinas, storm totals of 2 to 6 inches, locally to 9 inches, occurred in eastern South Carolina and east-central North Carolina, improving conditions by at least one category.  In eastern North Carolina, amounts under 2 inches improved short-term dryness, but with long-term deficits still persisting and real-time wells and stream flows still at near-record low levels, only the impact type designation changed (AH to H). Farther west in the core D2-D4 areas of the southern Appalachians, little to no rain fell courtesy of Hanna and Gustav, and drought conditions remained. In fact, 7-day USGS average stream flows ending September 9 were still near or at record-low values from northern Georgia northward into southwestern Virginia.

The Plains:  Scattered showers and thunderstorms dropped 1 to 4 inches on parts of the Great Plains, specifically in northwestern North Dakota, most of Nebraska and Kansas, northern Oklahoma, southeastern New Mexico, and southwestern and west-central Texas.  The rains were enough to make some 1-category improvements in the aforementioned areas.  In North Dakota, however, the driest conditions shifted southward into southwestern sections, namely Bowman and Adams counties, while improvements were made to northern drought areas.  In Nebraska, 1-2 inches of rain eliminated D1 in the Panhandle and southeastern sections, while locally heavy thunderstorms trimmed the D0 in southwestern Kansas and extreme northern Oklahoma.  Farther south, scattered thundershowers late in the period provided relief from abnormal dryness in southeastern New Mexico and southwestern and west-central Texas, especially around San Angelo, where a September 8 record of 3.05 inches of rain fell.

The West:  Mostly dry weather prevailed in the West, with cooler conditions (weekly temperatures averaged 4 to 12 degrees F below normal) in the Rockies and eastern Great Basin. Above-normal departures (+2 to +6 degrees F), however, remained in California and Arizona, with triple-digit highs in California’s Central Valley.  According to the NIFC, 5 large wildfires remained active in northern California, while California’s pastures and ranges were still rated 100% poor or very poor, according to USDA/NASS.  With continued declines in pasture and range productivity, the D2 was expanded northward into counties of northwestern (Del Monte) and northeastern (Lassen) California.  In central Nevada, low flows on the Humboldt River below Winnemucca have reduced irrigation allocations to 58% of normal below Rye Patch reservoir, dropping Pershing County into D1 status.

In contrast, a reassessment from the local western experts suggested improvement in some western Nevada and eastern California counties where water year-to-date precipitation (since Oct. 1, 2007) was at or above normal and no water restrictions were in place.  Accordingly, counties in western Nevada (northern Churchill, southern Mineral, Esmeralda), southern Nevada (southern Clark), and eastern California (southern Mono and northern Inyo) were changed from D1 to D0.

Puerto Rico and Hawaii:  Heavy, widespread rains from Tropical Storm Hanna feeder bands (the center passed well to the west of Puerto Rico) dropped 5 to 12 inches across much of the island, producing localized flooding but improving drought conditions by one category.  D0(H), however, was left where the former D1 area was as long-term deficiencies (50-75% of normal rainfall at 90- and 180-days) remained.  In Hawaii, light occasional showers, more frequent on the windward than leeward sides, were not enough for any improvement, keeping conditions status-quo.

Looking Ahead:  During the next 5 days (September 11-15), all eyes will be watching Hurricane Ike, currently intensifying in the central Gulf of Mexico and tracking west-northwestward.  Ike is expected to make landfall in Texas early this weekend as a dangerous Category 3 hurricane, then curve north into the south-central Plains, and northeast into the middle Mississippi Valley.  Expect heavy rains to occur along the track of Ike.  Meanwhile, cooler, drier air will prevail in the Northeast, while wet weather will continue along a front extending from western Texas through the Carolinas.  A second system is expected to bring rain across the northern and central Plains and Midwest.  The Far West should remain warm and dry throughout the period.

Author: David Miskus, Joint Agricultural Weather Facility, CPC/NCEP/NWS/NOAA

D0 ... Abnormally Dry ... used for areas showing dryness but not yet in drought, or for areas recovering from drought.

Drought Intensity Categories
D1 ... Moderate Drought
D2 ... Severe Drought
D3 ... Extreme Drought
D4 ... Exceptional Drought

Drought or Dryness Types
A ... Agricultural
H ... Hydrological

Updated September 10, 2008