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July 22, 2008
Category: New Hampshire
Ahead of McCain's return to New Hampshire for a town hall today, the paper that did much to resurrect his candidacy there goes where the candidate himself won't:
But while McCain is answering voters' questions, Sen. Barack Obama will be somewhere on the other side of the world, playing to his real constituency -- those sophisticated non-Americans who speak multiple languages and eat organic arugula.
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By Jonathan Martin 10:08 AM
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May 03, 2008
Category: New Hampshire
Making tails wag today over in Crystal City among the McCain weekend warriors: According to a new UHN survey, JSM would beat either HRC or BHO in the Granite State:
McCain: 49
Obama: 43
Undecided: 6
McCain: 47
Clinton: 44
Undecided: 7
Perhaps more heartening for McCain, he's up by over 20 against Clinton among New Hampshire's famous independents and winning them by over 30 when matched against Obama.
He's also peeling off a small chunk of the Dem vote (10 percent against Clinton, 15 percent against Obama) but that will likely recede some after they unify.
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By Jonathan Martin 07:49 PM
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January 09, 2008
Category: New Hampshire
John Harris and I have written through our analysis piece and have an updated version here.
Fairly light blogging in this space tomorrow because I'll be in transit, so please use the comments section for your usual colorful and insightful observations.
There is much to discuss and, given the Dem results, this race is shaping up to be a political junkie's dream.
On to Michigan and South Carolina!
Now, how does your candidate win?
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By Jonathan Martin 02:14 AM
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January 09, 2008
Category: New Hampshire
Romney spokesman Kevin Madden, fresh from his TV hits and en route back to Boston, makes the case for his candidate.
He insisted that they did not have to win Michigan to stay alive.
"Remaining competitive and finishing in the top two in very different states puts us into a place where we can compete in South Carolina and Florida, and then it's off to Feb. 5," said Madden.
Putting aside not insignificant matters of momentum and perception, Madden said: "The cumulative level of support we have is pretty good."
How is that?
Because they "got gold in Wyoming and two silvers in Iowa and New Hampshire."
Of course, this isn't the Olympics, and they dropped a lot of cash for two losses. A third, in Romney's native state, could be fatal.
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By Jonathan Martin 12:21 AM
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January 09, 2008
Category: New Hampshire
John Harris and I have an analysis up about what the McCain comeback win here means for the scrambled GOP race.
NASHUA, N.H. — John McCain’s convincing back-from-the-dead victory among New Hampshire Republicans on Tuesday has allowed him for the first time in months to see a plausible, though still harrowing, path to the GOP presidential nomination.
The hope among McCain operatives is that the New Hampshire victory will lead to an infusion of badly needed contributions. His fate also depends on the conservative establishment, often hostile to the Arizona senator and his maverick crusades, now rallying around his argument that he is the most electable Republican in the general election.
Former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney’s campaign, meanwhile, is on life support after distant second-place finishes in Iowa and New Hampshire — both states where he had invested heavily in time and money.
Michigan will represent a last stand for Romney, who grew up in the state and whose father served there as governor. But his prospects are hardly sunny there, given that McCain won Michigan in 2000.
With no Democratic race to speak of in Michigan, the open GOP primary will likely attract droves of independent voters who historically have been drawn to McCain.
After that, the GOP race turns to South Carolina, the state that was McCain’s undoing in the bitterly fought 2000 contest.
Just as McCain hopes Michigan can smother Romney’s candidacy, he needs a Dixie victory to establish clear dominance over former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee, who won Iowa on the strength of social conservatives who also figure prominently in South Carolina.
Despite the clear boost that New Hampshire gave him, McCain needs these dominoes to fall in a nearly flawless fashion if he is to head into the massive Feb. 5 Super Tuesday primaries as the dominant figure in the Republican Party.
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By Jonathan Martin 12:08 AM
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January 08, 2008
Category: New Hampshire
The good news for Rudy Giuliani: He appears to have not been embarrassed again by Ron Paul.
Barely.
With 85 percent of the vote in here, Rudy is getting 8.63 percent to Paul's 7.71 percent.
But that the former New York mayor couldn't even crack double digits and got clipped by a former Baptist preacher with next to no campaign organization here reflects the trouble his campaign is in.
His folks are already pushing attention to Florida and making the case that they've been running a national race.
But as ABC's Jake Tapper and Karen Travers detail, their all-chips-on-Florida strategy is a new one. They emphatically were playing hard in New Hampshire and spent millions on TV here and much time on the ground in late fall. They only shifted tactics when their numbers didn't move after the investment.
More broadly, Rudy now faces the prospect of not finishing any better than third place in any contest between here and Florida. It's one thing to muddle along and survive into Florida. But to be completely out of the money in every contest beforehand makes such a strategy all the more difficult.
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By Jonathan Martin 11:41 PM
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January 08, 2008
Category: New Hampshire
McCain, finding the opportunity irresistible, opened up his victory speech with a familiar formulation.
"I'm past the age where I can claim the word 'kid,' no matter what adjective precedes it," McCain said, nodding to Bill Clinton's famous line here in 1992. "But tonight we sure showed them what a comeback looks like."
And he did it his way, McCain said. Grinding it out at town hall meetings, talking issues and just generally hanging in there.
McCain read his speech with little emotion and seemed almost serene at times, but the pumped audience didn't seem to mind and offered "Mac is back," "John McCain" and "USA" chants at various moments.
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By Jonathan Martin 10:24 PM
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January 08, 2008
Category: New Hampshire
My colleague Josh Kraushaar, over at Romney's HQ, says Mitt called McCain at about 8:15 to offer his congratulations.
Here at the McCain party, the crowd went quiet for a moment and they turned up the volume on Romney's concession speech.
When the former governor tipped his hat to his rival, the crowd exploded.
McCain is expected at any minute to address his supporters here in Nashua.
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By Jonathan Martin 08:57 PM
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January 08, 2008
Category: New Hampshire
McCain supporters are at once stunned and exuberant. Few thought the race would be called so soon. They're talking on cell phones throughout the lobby of the Crowne Plaza here in Nashua, site of McCain's 2000 triumph. Some are using their cell phones to record for posterity the flat-screen TV images of McCain's victory.
One supporter, Tracy Enders, is in tears, she's so happy. A delegate for McCain in 2000, she drove up from Coventry, Conn., to help the cause.
But few others here are as overjoyed at McCain's remarkable rise from political death as Mark McKinnon.
Along with another reporter, I ran into McCain's media adviser coming out of the ballroom.
"Grit, determination, guts and ... " McKinnon said, at a loss for words when asked to describe how his candidate came back. "Unwilling to give up," he said, finishing his sentence with visible emotion.
"In the darkest days, he was always the guy who said 'soldier on,'" McKinnon recalled.
McCain frequently reminded himself and his staff of an old Navy saying, McKinnon said: "Steady strain."
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By Jonathan Martin 08:20 PM
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January 08, 2008
Category: New Hampshire
Jubilation breaks out in hallways, with high-fives, fist pounds, hugs and whoops and hollers.
"Mac is back!!!!" go the cheers.
UPDATE: NBC News is now projecting N.H. for McCain, too.
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By Jonathan Martin 08:08 PM
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