Economy, not democracy, dominates vote in Georgia

TBILISI, Georgia: President Mikheil Saakashvili was leading in polls heading into a vote Saturday that was initially seen as an effort to restore his mandate after baton-wielding police officers dispersed street demonstrators here in November.

The police action by a president held up as a paragon of democratic leadership in the former Soviet Union led to a din of criticism at home and in the West.

The election, however, has largely evolved into a referendum about Saakashvili's economic reforms that have brought foreign investment and growth to one of the region's poorest countries but left pockets of poverty and high unemployment.

Financial issues, more than democratic credentials or Georgia's tense relations with Russia, were the driving issues in the campaign, both opposition politicians and Saakashvili's aides said in interviews Friday.

Still, the vote remains important because Georgia had been held up as a success by the Bush administration, following its policy of supporting democratic transition in the former Soviet Union.

The economic progress has been remarkable for a largely agricultural country with few natural resources beyond vineyards and citrus groves; Georgia's economy grew 10 percent in 2007.

Yet below the surface, as has been the case elsewhere in former Communist countries, poverty and unemployment still fester, corroding support for a firm American ally on the southern rim of the former Soviet Union. Roughly a quarter of the population lives in poverty.

"There was a segment of society that felt like we didn't care," said Giga Bokeria, a member of Georgia's Parliament and an ally of the president.

Seven candidates are on the ballot Saturday. If no candidate wins more than 50 percent of the vote, a runoff will be held in two weeks.

A poll by the Washington firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner, sponsored by Saakashvili's campaign and made public Thursday, showed the U.S.-educated Saakashvili with support from 52 percent of likely voters, with a margin of error of 3.4 percent.

The leading opposition candidate, Levan Gachechiladze, who represents a coalition of nine opposition parties, garnered 16 percent among people expected to vote, according to the poll, which was conducted in mid-December.

Saakashvili called the election after he ordered the riot police to disperse a street protest that turned violent on Nov. 7.

The police fired rubber bullets and tear gas at protesters whom Saakashvili's aides have characterized as rioters. Government troops also closed an independent television station, Imedi, which is operated by Rupert Murdoch's News Corp. During the operation to take the station off the air, troops rampaged inside the studios, smashing what company officials estimate was between $3 million and $4 million worth of equipment.

Imedi is owned by Badri Patarkatsishvili, a billionaire who is now living in London yet remains a candidate on the ballot Saturday.

In December, the Georgian government made public clandestinely filmed video showing Patarkatsishvili offering a Georgian Interior Ministry official a $100 million bribe, apparently to help stage a coup.

In a telephone interview Thursday, Patarkatsishvili did not contest the specifics of a transcript of the video released by the Georgian authorities, but said the proposed payment was intended to prevent police violence against peaceful protesters after the vote Saturday.

That proposed bribe, large even by former Soviet standards, has also loomed large in the race here. Imedi reporters and editors voluntarily shut down broadcasts Dec. 26, less than a month after returning to the air, to protest Patarkatsishvili's ownership, though they say the station is managed by News Corp.

In another twist involving Patarkatsishvili, he offered Thursday to pay monthly stipends of about $35 to the country's unemployed from his personal fortune if he were to win the presidency. While he is unlikely to win, the offer underscored the importance of bread-and-butter economic issues here and might draw enough votes to upset Saakashvili's slim margin in the first round.

The election is also a plebiscite on Georgia's hoped-for integration into NATO. Six of the seven candidates and a majority of Georgians support NATO membership.

A show of popular support will surely help Georgia's case for membership, though the alliance has been wary of offering the country membership because of the likelihood of entanglements with Russia because the governments of two separatist regions in Georgia are supported by Russia.

Also on Saturday, voters will decide whether to hold parliamentary elections this spring or next autumn.

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